“We can say that the global sum is such that the curve is the visual maximum even if it is maintained for a long time,” said Rodrigo Quiroga, bioinformatician, professor at the National University of Córdoba and researcher at Conicet. pandemic, this young scientist specialized in the design of computer strategies has learned about the new infections and injuries caused through the Ministry of Health and has built graphs. Thus, transmit this data to the dissemination tools to perceive the spread of the coronavirus, and thus percentage on your social networks.
In this briefing, Quiroga describes the differences between derroteros in Argentina, Chile, Brazil and the United States before covid-19. In addition, about the of European and Nordic nations which can serve as an example to know, effectively, that they are there to face the prompt future.
-What can be seen in your graphs? Why, in general, is there nothing with the infected?
-I base it on comparing countries based on the number of infected. The number of truly infected people does not depend only on the strategy aimed at using the drug, epidemiological surveillance. The case definition is different in its position and, also, in the same position, it changes over time. This is a vital salad that makes it very difficult, so it is more productive to calculate and assemble the curves from the number of falls.
-But we can also debate with errors. There are some countries, for example, that do perform coronavirus autopsy tests.
-Yes, sure, you can also get out of the noise if we compare the deaths, at least, that occur with those infected. In Germany, there is a day when a user has a chronic epidemic and the disease covid-19, which has not died from the coronavirus. I’ve discussed this, which has made it tricky for country knowledge because those are topics that you need from the suite. Currently, any respiratory infection can only be tested on any component of the world.
-Is there a correlation between those that treat other countries in relation to their curves? What is the difference between Argentina and Chile, Brazil and the United States?
-Absolutamente. El aislamiento, en este sentido, es lo que marca la gran diferencia entre las actualidades de esos países. Uno puede evidenciar muy claramente cuando las políticas y medidas de aislamiento social producen efectos al cortar la propagación viral.
-Chile dispuso medidas bastante similares a las de Argentina.
Yes, but instead of building politics throughout the country, the only way to operate with all the towns that exist is built on the rate of infections. That is a valid strategy and, moreover, the largest Argentina that implements this. course in one day or another by extending restrictions on network transmission (CABA, Buenos Aires and other urban centers). It can be argued that the global sum is such that the curve is the visual maximum, even if it cannot be sustained. for a long time. The path confined to the provinces may be correct, and when we are very attentive and quick to think of putting in this district in any prompt way if we take into consideration new cases.
-The dating between inflamed and dead is different in Argentina than that recorded in Chile. What is the responsibility?
-Tenemos cuatro veces menos infectados, hemos realizado mucho menos tests y contamos con, más o menos, la misma cantidad de fallecidos (160 aproximadamente). Existen varias hipótesis que podrían explicar nuestra diferencia con Chile. Una es que ellos realizan muchos más rastreos de contactos y por lo tanto testean más gente previo a que manifiesten síntomas. En este caso, deberían tener menos contagiados cuando en verdad tienen muchos más. El otro razonamiento es que si se realizan el diagnóstico muchos ciudadanos que no manifiestan síntomas (que pagaban de forma privada el kit), deberíamos ver una disminución de la positividad y tampoco se comprueba ello. Por lo tanto, a la única conclusión a la que puedo llegar de manera razonable es que, pese a que Chile tiene entre 5 y 7 días de retraso con respecto a nosotros y desarrolló la epidemia más tarde, tiene una velocidad ascendente de la curva de mayor potencia. Esta explicación cerraría siempre y cuando, en los próximos días, Chile comience a superarnos en cantidad de decesos por día.
-Does it matter that the situation is much smaller in Chile?
-I have a total issue with the comparison with the population. What confuses epidemiologists is that epidemics are transmitted in the same way at sea. This is what spreads maximum or minimum in the same way in any region of the world, regardless of population density. It will thus be decided, through the mortgage, that if Iceland kills 1,000 people, it may only be compared to a million victims in the United States. Something crazy.
-Según los expertos, un dato clave para comprender la propagación es prestar atención a la tasa de variación. ¿Qué indica esta tasa?
-Al comienzo de la epidemia, en Argentina, la curva crecía a una tasa que multiplicaba por 10 los casos cada 10 días. De continuar con ese ritmo al país le sucedería lo que actualmente ocurre con Estados Unidos. Pero en la actualidad, tras las medidas tomadas por el gobierno, se duplica la cantidad de casos cada 14 días aproximadamente. Eso indica que tenemos una curva muy aplanada y que tanto los números de infectados como el de fallecidos diarios parecen volverse constantes. La cuarentena disminuyó muchísimo la tasa de reproducción del virus, pero no por debajo de 1.
-¿Qué quiere decir que no lo hizo por debajo de 1?
-If the hubier drops by more than 1 we will see a relief in the number of people who are inflamed and will die but there will be no damage. The replication task indicates that some other people are inflamed by each contagious one. The “R0” index expresses the reproductive task of the pathogen before the meditation of governments; changing, when the government captures the actuary, it is called “Rt. ” If there are more than 2 countries experiencing exponential growth, when they are at 1 (as is the case with Argentina), they remain constant. When there is less than one user (that is, each user infects less than one user), the number of infections will decrease. For a sprout to end, it is mandatory to have a breeding cup at the beginning of day 1.
-Epidemiologists usually say that the curves in Brazil and the United States are exponential. What does this mean?
-That the number of other inflamed ones is repeated one and both X days. For example, we suppose that we pay for duplication both one and both one and both 3 days: if today there are 10 million inflamed people, in 3 days there will be 20 million and in 6 days there will be 40 million and in nine days there will be 80 million. The absolute number that the base has once increases with greater speed and, therefore, is the exponential denomination. It is very impressive when they produce those brothers of immense magnitude because our daily life does not adapt to those values. In fact, these behaviors are evident in Brazil and the United States, which are decreeing their restrictions quite late. They took action without a centralized resolution at the national level; In fact, in other cases, the rulers who apply Islamism will be able to influence those who do so over national leaders.
-Siempre se plantea esa dicotomía entre los países que privilegian la economía y los que privilegian la salud.
-It is a false dichotomy because European countries that prioritize the economy at first end up in a general quarantine: others have so much to do that they do not prefer to leave their jobs at home. Something else happened in Britain. A little later, all the time they can reach 4 lump sums, like New York State, because they explode the number of cases. Germany, on the other hand, does not have an Islamism like that of our homes, which is very closed: citizens can paint and return to their homes, buy important products (food, farms) and contract them with other people who are in a very normal physical condition. For example, per day, you have the option of locating only one user who is not alive. Wear masks and respect distances of 2 meters.
-Why is the peak running month by month in Argentina?Can you see anything?
-While we are in quarantine, no peak will appear because contagion is very restricted. I would like to have an official statement on this point because, to be honest, I don’t know where they will get what will be at the peak. For there to be one, we should increase our number of cases and then decrease them. However, the only thing that the number of easing can do is return to global confinement as we are now. I suppose by “peak” you mean that of a new infection.
-For there to be a peak there must be a decrease and, for this, the need for 70 percent of the population to be immunized?
-Exactly: 70% of the population infected, quarantine later, or failing that, vaccination. There is no other way to alleviate the appearance of new infected.
-At the beginning of the pandemic, Sweden had planned for the risk teams to stay in contact and not be in the picture in general.
-Ese fue el plan sueco y la línea que siguió Reino Unido. Sin embargo, ya vimos lo que pasó con el sistema de salud británico, hiper saturado y con miles de muertos. Por su parte, Suecia pisa los 2 mil fallecidos cuando otros países nórdicos (Finlandia, Dinamarca, Noruega, Islandia) tienen menos de 400. Las políticas de los gobiernos influyen de manera sustancial en los comportamientos que siguen las curvas. No hay vuelta que darle.
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Comparación de fallecidos promedio en los últimos cinco días en eje vertical vs. fallecidos totales en eje horizontal. Los ejes están en escala logarítmica.Cada punto representa un día: mientras más arriba, más fallecidos hubo en los últimos 5 días; mientras más a la derecha, más fallecidos hubo en total. Cuando hay crecimiento exponencial de infectados y, por lo tanto, de fallecidos, se observa una línea recta diagonal, como en Brasil y Estados Unidos hasta la semana pasada. Chile y Argentina, por otro lado, tomaron medidas de aislamiento social de manera temprana (en Argentina cuarentena total, y en Chile cuarentena parcial). Sin embargo, en Chile parece seguir creciendo la curva de fallecidos mientras que en Argentina hay amesetamiento.
Evolución de los nuevos casos diarios no importados de Argentina, comparado a un crecimiento exponencial de duplicación cada tres días desde el 12/03 y un crecimiento exponencial de duplicación cada 20 días desde el 27/03.
Este gráfico evidencia el “aplanamiento de la curva” para Argentina. Si hubiera continuado el crecimiento exponencial de duplicación cada tres días, hoy habría aproximadamente 100 mil infectados.
This graph indicates that the number of tests recorded in the records has been created over time, and yet the number of positive tests remains constant.
It is not true that the check is no longer infected, but it is controlled correctly. Argentina is now in the tenth century of test positivity, a figure recommended by the WHO which indicates that there is no subtest.
Foto de portada: Télam.
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