“Se puede afirmar que la cuarentena total es lo que más aplana la curva aunque no se puede sostener por mucho tiempo”, señala Rodrigo Quiroga, bioinformático, docente en la Universidad Nacional de Córdoba e Investigador del Conicet. Desde el comienzo de la pandemia, este joven científico especialista en el diseño de métodos computacionales, toma los datos de nuevos contagios y fallecimientos suministrados por el Ministerio de Salud y construye gráficos. Así, convierte esa información en instrumentos de divulgación para comprender la propagación del coronavirus, y por eso los comparte en sus redes sociales.
In this newsletter, Quiroga describes the differences between paths in Argentina, Chile, Brazil and the United States before covid-19. In addition, the European and Nordic nations that can serve as an example to know, effectively, that they are there to face the near future.
-What can you see in more graphics? Why, in general, is there no comparison with the infected?
-I base myself on the comparison of countries according to the number of infected. The number of real infected people does not depend only on the strategy aimed at wearing down the drug, epidemiological surveillance. The case definition is different in its position and, moreover, in the same position, it changes over time. This is a vital salad that complicates the task a lot, so the most productive thing is to calculate and assemble the curves from the number of falls.
But with mistakes we can also debate. There are some countries, for example, that do carry out coronavirus autopsy tests.
-Yes, of course, you can also notice the noises if we compare the deaths but less so those that happen to the infected. In Germany there comes a day when a user has a chronic epidemic and dies from covid-19, who did not die from the coronavirus. I talked about this, which is confusing for the country’s knowledge because those are topics that need to be discussed next. Currently, any respiratory infection can only be tested anywhere in the world.
-Is there a correlation between those that treat other countries in relation to their curves? What is the difference between Argentina and Chile, Brazil and the United States?
-Absolutely. Islam, in this sentiment, is what marks the big difference between the news in those countries. It is imaginable to obviously turn out that the policies and measures of social Islamism produce effects on viral spread.
Chile discussed measures to Argentina’s.
-Sí, pero en lugar de establecer una cuarentena en todo el país, solo aislaron de manera total a aquellas ciudades en las que existía un crecimiento en la tasa de infectados. Es una estrategia válida e, incluso, a lo mejor Argentina implemente ese rumbo en unos días prolongando las restricciones dónde hay transmisión comunitaria (CABA, Buenos Aires y otros centros urbanos). Se puede afirmar que la cuarentena total es lo que más aplana la curva aunque no se puede sostener por mucho tiempo. La vía de confinar por provincias puede ser correcta, siempre y cuando estemos muy atentos y rápidos de reflejos para poner a ese distrito en cuarentena de forma inmediata si vuelven a aparecer nuevos casos.
-The dating between inflamed and dead is different in Argentina than that recorded in Chile. What is the responsibility?
-Tenemos cuatro veces menos infectados, hemos realizado mucho menos tests y contamos con, más o menos, la misma cantidad de fallecidos (160 aproximadamente). Existen varias hipótesis que podrían explicar nuestra diferencia con Chile. Una es que ellos realizan muchos más rastreos de contactos y por lo tanto testean más gente previo a que manifiesten síntomas. En este caso, deberían tener menos contagiados cuando en verdad tienen muchos más. El otro razonamiento es que si se realizan el diagnóstico muchos ciudadanos que no manifiestan síntomas (que pagaban de forma privada el kit), deberíamos ver una disminución de la positividad y tampoco se comprueba ello. Por lo tanto, a la única conclusión a la que puedo llegar de manera razonable es que, pese a que Chile tiene entre 5 y 7 días de retraso con respecto a nosotros y desarrolló la epidemia más tarde, tiene una velocidad ascendente de la curva de mayor potencia. Esta explicación cerraría siempre y cuando, en los próximos días, Chile comience a superarnos en cantidad de decesos por día.
-¿Influye que la población sea bastante menor en Chile?
-I have a total issue with the comparison of the population. What worries epidemiologists is that epidemics are transmitted in the same way in the sea. This is what spreads in more or less the same way in any region of the world. , regardless of population density. It will thus be decided, through the mortgage, that if Iceland causes 1,000 deaths, it may be only in comparison with a million victims in the United States. Something crazy.
-According to experts, a key task for dissemination and attention to variation. What indica is this glass?
-At the beginning of the epidemic, in Argentina, the curve created a task that multiplies by 10 times every 10 days. If this pace continues in the country, the succession is what has been happening lately with the United States. But lately, according to the measures taken by the government, the number of cases doubles approximately every 14 days. This indicates that we have a very planned curve and that the numbers of swollen and fallen logs are comparable to becoming constant. The frequency decreased particularly the virus replication task, but not through 1.
-Who makes the decision that there is no challenge to eliminate 1?
-If the hubier drops more than 1 we will notice a relief in the number of inflamed people and they will die but there will be no damage. The replication task indicates that some other people are inflamed by each contagious one. The “R0” index expresses the reproductive task of the pathogen before the meditation of governments; changing, when the government captures the actuary, it is called “Rt. ” If there are more than 2 exconsistent countries with exponential growth, when they are at 1 (as is the case of Argentina), they remain constant. When there is less than one user (that is, each user infects less than one user), the number of infections will decrease. For an outbreak to disappear, it is necessary to have a glass of breeding a day.
-Epidemiologists affirm that the curves in Brazil and the United States are exponential. What does it mean?
-Que el número de infectados se duplica cada X días. Por ejemplo, supongamos que estos países la duplicasen cada 3 días: si hoy tienen 10 mil infectados, dentro de 3 días habrá 20 mil y en 6 días habrá 40 mil y en 9 tendrá 80 mil. El número absoluto que se tiene de base cada vez se incrementa con mayor velocidad y, por ello, se la denomina exponencial. Es muy impresionante cuando se producen estos brotes de tremenda magnitud porque en nuestras vidas cotidianas no estamos acostumbrados a esos valores. Efectivamente, estos comportamientos se evidencian en Brasil y Estados Unidos que decretaron sus restricciones bastante tarde. Tomaron medidas sin una decisión centralizada a nivel nacional; de hecho, en ambos casos fueron los gobernadores los que decidieron aplicar el aislamiento, a pesar de lo que decían los ejecutivos nacionales.
-There is a dichotomy between countries that prioritize the economy and those that prioritize health.
-It is a false dichotomy because European countries that, in order to favor the economy at the beginning, end up in a general quarantine: the populations have so much to do that their space does not prefer to leave their tables. Something else happened in Britain. A little later, you can always get to four lump sums, like New York State, because they explode the number of cases. Germany, for its part, does not have an Islamism very similar to that of our homes: citizens can paint and return to their homes, buy important products (food, farms) and contract them with other people, but very average. Matrix For example, consistent with the day you have the option to locate only one user with what is not alive. Use masks and respect distances of 2 meters.
-Why in Argentina does the peak go from month to month? Could there be no peak?
-These are some of the cases that do not seem like anything because the contagion is very restrictive. I’m going to play you with an official at this point because, to be honest, there’s nothing that does you even a little. So we can increase our number of instances and then minimize them. However, the only thing that can reduce the number of new infections is if 70% of the population opposes the coronavirus and is immune to the sea, or else we will adapt to the general confinement as we are now. Suppose “peak” is related to the possibility of a new contagious disease.
-¿Para que haya pico debe haber una disminución y, para ello, se requiere del 70 por ciento de la población inmunizada?
-Exactly: 70% of the population infected, quarantine later, or else, vaccination. There is no other way to reduce the appearance of new infected.
-Al comienzo de la pandemia, Suecia había planteado la posibilidad de que los grupos de riesgo se mantuvieran aislados y que aquellos que no lo estaban salieran a trabajar de manera normal.
-This is the plan that follows and the line that the United Kingdom follows. However, we have noticed that we have come across the British fitness system, which is more saturated and with miles of deaths. For its part, Sweden lost 2 dollars. million while other Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, Norway, Iceland) have less than 400 dollars. Government policy has a rich influence on curve-following behavior. There is no way back dear.
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Comparison of the immediate drops in the last five days of Los Angeles vertically and the general drops horizontally. The chances are in a logarithmic scale angelestion. Each point represents a day: while the high occurs, the falling high occurs in the last five days; The more to the right, the more deaths there were overall. When inflammation increases exponentially and, therefore, patients observe a direct diagonal line, as in Brazil and the United States until last week. Chile and Argentina, for their part, accept social angelism measures for the islands on a temporary basis (in Argentina they are general, and in Chile they are partial). However, in Chile it turns out that the falls curve in central Argentina is improving.
Evolution of new daily instances not imported from Argentina, compared to an exponential increase in doubling every 3 days since 03/12 and an exponential increase in doubling every 20 days from 03/27.
This is graphic evidence of “curve planning” for Argentina. If the exponential expansion of the doubling every three days continues, there are about one hundred million infected.
Este gráfico apunta a mostrar que la cantidad de tests diarios creció con el tiempo y, sin embargos el número de tests positivos se mantiene constante.
No es por falta de testeo que no hay más infectados, sino que realmente se está testeando adecuadamente. Argentina ya se encuentra por debajo del 10 por ciento de positividad de tests, cifra recomendada por la OMS que indica que no hay subtesteo.
Photo of the port: Télam.
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