Publisher: five months after the outbreak of COVID-19, as of August 19, 2020, Brazil reported a total of 3407354 cases confirmed by PCR and 109888 deaths due to COVID-19, a fatality rate (TFC) of 3. 2% 1. These figures are likely to reflect a great underestimation, as other asymptomatic, pauci-symptomatic or presymptomatic people are not evaluated, while touch search remains limited. 2 The immediate spread of COVID-19 in Brazil is due to many factors. , adding density, implementation time, and maintenance of social estating policies, and limited test capability. In addition, at the end of June 2020, due to economic and political pressures, many Brazilian states lifted restrictions on business and shared spaces despite an increasing number of instances.
The Brazilian pandemic is fuelling the fact that a giant component of the population lives in dense communities with insufficient medical services, adding urban slums characterized by limited access to fitness services and poor sanitation. It is already considerable, since many citizens cannot isolate themselves because they have to work. As evidenced by previous influenza epidemic model studies, slums have higher transmission rates than non-slum spaces in all intervention scenarios due to overcrowding and the size of the upper family3. In addition, oversaturated fitness systems reject patients, expanding the number of avoidable deaths, mainly in vulnerable communities.
We have implemented 3 sensitive-infected-exposed-recovered compartmental epidemiological models (SEIR) (Delphi, Squire and YYG) for which the source code is publicly available to await the long-term trajectory of the epidemic in Brazil4,5,6 The models were configured with instances of COVID-19 and mortality from February 26 to August 11, 2020, according to the knowledge of the Brazilian Ministry of Health , the models built from this knowledge were projected until January 1, 2021, the 3 models produced are expectations of the number of instances and deaths consistent with the day. Various mortality and occurrence forecasts through models. To produce a fundamental summary of these outputs, we calculate the average and diversity of the 3 expectations.
The average style forecast is that until January 2021, with social estating measures implemented, the cumulative number of COVID-19 instances shown in Brazil will be five million with 161212 deaths (which is an expected CFR of 3. 2%). , 377 deaths and 3. 7 million instances, YYG 182,147 deaths and 4. 7 million instances, and Squire 184,113 deaths and 6. 6 million instances. Although valuable, the goal of the styles reported here is to wait for the first wave of the epidemic. they do not incorporate a number of other epidemiological processes that can have a significant effect on the number of cases, such as decreased immunity, reinfection, recruitment of new vulnerable Americans or vaccination, although these processes are accompanied by more complex compartmental styles7 Matrix 8. Nor do they take into account the behaviours of populations caused by political mistrust that can fuel the COVID-19 pandemic, a phenomenon known as Cu effect mmings in the United Kingdom 9.
The above models are one of many expected techniques that can be mobilized to estimate the duration of the epidemic in Brazil. His technique is to assess how decreasing social distance can simply influence duration. For example, lack of physical distance may if precautionary measures such as social estjournment are suspended, there could be a five-time potentially catastrophic increase in the number of instances, with a projection of up to 28 million instances and 902,787 deaths (3. 2% CFR) through January 2021 in Brazil if additional mitigation measures have not been put in place or if immunization efforts have been implemented at the national level In this worst case , about 13. 2% of Brazil’s 212 million inhabitants may be inflamed with COV-2 SARS, while classic models expect about 2. 4% to simply be inflamed.
Regardless of the models used are expected instances and mortality, the pandemic undoubtedly had an unprecedented economic effect in Brazil, in addition to the overwhelming burden of disease. However, it is essential to carefully plan the attenuation of the disease. Measures of social estating in a country of continental dimensions to minimize the unstoppable burden of human lives.
The knowledge used for this research should be available to the public of the coronavirus panel of the Brazilian Ministry of Health in http://covid. saude. gov. br.
M. M. , T. F. , C. R. G. , P. B. et K. N. S. conducted the literature review, conducted research on the M. M. knowledge set, T. F. et K. N. S. interpreted M. M. knowledge, T. F. et K. N. S. wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All authors participated in the critical examination of the manuscript and contributed to the final product of the manuscript.
The authors claim to have interests in competition.
Published: September 2020
DOI: https://doi. org/10. 1038/s41591-020-1071-5