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Competition between Kazakhstan and Russia has increased especially in the Central Asian cereal and oilseed markets over the past three seasons. According to customs statistics, the region’s main food importer, Afghanistan, is systematically cutting back on the purchase of Kazakh wheat flour and, in particular, expanding imports. of Russian flour. In the 2020/21 marketing year, the source of Russian flour to Afghanistan less than 4. 5 thousand tons, while it exceeded one hundred thousand tons in the 2021/22 marketing year. At the same time, Kazakhstan has reduced its flour exports to Afghanistan to 1074 thousand tons in the year 2021/22 from 1147 thousand tons in the year 2020/21.
The scenario is the opposite in the sunflower oil segment. The Kazakh product systematically replaces Russian oil on the Afghan market. Thus, in the 2021/22 marketing year, exports of Kazakh sunflower oil to Afghanistan increased 4. 2 times and reached 15. 4 thousand tons. At the same time, Russian oil materials decreased 4. 3 times to 6. 6 thousand tons. In the 2019/20 marketing year, Russia provided 80. 3 thousand tons of sunflower oil to Afghanistan. As a result, the source has decreased almost 12. 2 times in 3 seasons.
At the same time, there is an almost total substitution of Kazakh wheat of Russian origin on the Kyrgyz market. In the 2021/22 marketing year, grain from Russia reached 220. 2 thousand tons, 3. 1 times more than last season. , of Kazakh wheat decreased to a minimum of 9. 1 thousand tons, 2. 6 times less than last season and 10 times less than in the 2019/20 marketing year.
Given the restrictions imposed by Russia’s sanctions and the strong export outlook of Russia’s grain and oilseed markets, a higher festival for Russian products is expected in Kazakhstan’s classic markets this season.
We will discuss trends in Central Asian grain and oilseed markets at the Asia Grains conference
Sign up to participate! See you on November 10th and in Astana, Radisson HOTEL, ASTANA.
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