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By Pedro Aplicaciones
LONDON, Sept 15 (Reuters) – As Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping meet in Uzbekistan this week for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s face-to-face assembly since the pandemic, Russian and Chinese corporations are traveling around the world to escape the United States. ban on microchip imports because the United States worries about Chinese metal in its F-35 fighter jets.
The war in Ukraine, emerging tensions over Taiwan, and more broadly, deteriorating relations between Moscow, Beijing, and the West have disrupted globalization since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in early 2020. This poses a growing challenge to what until recently was largely undisputed source chains.
The consequences have been widespread and continue to evolve. Europe is rushing to stop using Russian gas, Ukraine and its Western allies are stuck in an effort to deny Russia the Western- and Taiwanese-made chips it wants for its long-range missiles. and Chinese and U. S. corporations are looking for a solution to grow without having access to each other’s products.
It is a dynamic that produces multiple accidental consequences. This week’s assembly in Uzbekistan — the Chinese leader’s first abroad in the aftermath of the pandemic — was designed to sign on greater unity and cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, whose troops exercised together this month in the Vostok. army training in eastern Russia.
Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced he would join the rally, among the most assertive members of a power-developing intermediate organization positioning themselves on what they see as the non-aligned central terrain between a Russia-China axis and the West.
Were it not for the tides of war, the SCO summit that begins on Thursday would be a diplomatic victory for Putin. Modi’s presence in particular is a reminder of the limited fate of Western efforts to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. Indian corporations continue to buy and invest in Russian power during the war, and the Kremlin has done no harm in positioning itself as an interlocutor between New Delhi and Beijing following a clash on the Himalayan border in 2020.
However, it is instead taking a position opposite to the backdrop of Russian reversals following Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv, and greater uncertainty in the Kremlin garden following the worst clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
PUTIN-XI MEETING
Thursday’s Putin-Xi meeting will be assessed for signs that their countries need to delve deeper into a relationship that has come a long way in the past two years. Beijing was first without bloodshed with the Kremlin after the invasion, which led to the hypothesis that Putin had not kindly informed the Chinese leader of the scale of the attack.
However, since then, the two seem to be getting closer, whether concerned with building their independence from the West and the United States in particular, either economically or militarily. Research last month by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute showed that Russian weapons remain dependent on Western and Taiwanese microchips, with a global effort across the United States and Ukraine to harden, as Russia blocked its own energy exports and blocked Ukrainian grain.
The complex result. China bought 17 percent more Russian crude between April and July than the previous year, 50 percent more vegetable fuel and 6 percent more coal, paying rubles and yuan and reducing dependence on the U. S. dollar. We will be on the calendar in Uzbekistan, with possible purchases of defense equipment.
Despite all its technological advances in recent years, China remains heavily dependent on microchips and other high-tech parts from the United States and Taiwan, both of which have a limited source for Chinese companies. Other restrictions are on the way. Earlier this month, the U. S. chipmaker said it was a major player. USA Nvidia reported that the U. S. governmenthe had told him to avoid exporting two state-of-the-art chips for synthetic intelligence paints to China, fearing that his products would end up with a “military end user. “
COMPLEX WORLD
Given that Europe’s efforts to diversify away from Russian fuel and the Pentagon’s discovery that the 835 F-35s accepted into service comprise a banned Chinese alloy sample, splitting the chains of origin into a deeply interconnected global economy is not without its challenges.
U. S. officials have reportedly already requested a waiver to allow the F-35 to be resumed, indicating that the aircraft in question, a component of a magnet, does not compromise the plane’s safety. But, more broadly, Washington has been running for some years to diversify resources from technological and material factors.
This week, the U. S. Secretaries of State and Commerce. U. S. consumers Anthony Blinken and Gina Raimondo visited Mexico and pledged to expand their own semiconductor and electric car industry to lessen dependence on products from China and Taiwan, which has led to a global shortage of semiconductors. Modi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has followed an intentionally “non-aligned” path between East and West.
The same goes for several of the Central Asian leaders who will attend the SCO this week, as uncomfortable, in the world of Russia and China. Ukraine and approaching the European Union even as Russia demonstrated its ability to close its main export pipelines through its territory.
Putin and Xi have scheduled stops in Kazakhstan this week, where the Chinese leader first announced Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. However, the one neither of them has controlled to completely dominate recalls the headwinds they face as they seek to assert their strength in a complex and interconnected world.
As the war in Ukraine has shown, it is a world in which nations are willing to take greater danger in the pursuit of strength and interest. be the one who challenges undeniable answers and divisions.
** Peter Apps is a specialist in foreign affairs, globalization, shock and other topics. He is the founder and executive director of the Project for the Study of the XXI Century; PS21, a non-national, non-partisan, non-ideological think tank. Paralyzed by a turn of automobile fate in a war zone in 2006, he also blogs about his disability and other topics. In the past he was a Reuters reporter and continues to be paid through Thomson Reuters. Since 2016 he has been a member of the British Army Reserve and the UK Labour Party. (Edited via Tomasz Janowski)