While about 90% of the coastal and low-lying regions of Europe and California would probably no longer be able to produce wine economically, other regions such as British Columbia in Canada and Washington state would possibly gain importance.
Researchers from French clinical bodies, including INRAE (French Public Research Institute on Agriculture, Food and the Environment), Bordeaux Sciences Agro, CNRS (Centre National de los angeles Recherche Scientifique), the University of Bordeaux and the University of Burgundy, worked together to create the map of the wine production of the future.
They conclude that on each and every continent “there will be winners and losers. “
The existing wine regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes (California, USA; southern France; northern Spain and Italy; Barossa, Australia; Stellenbosch, South Africa; and Mendoza, Argentina, among others), where the climate is warm enough to allow the grapes to ripen, but without excessive heat and dryness (minimizing the risk of disease).
But the changes are already visible: In most vineyards, the harvest now begins two to three weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago, with the resulting effects on grapes and wine styles. In France, where records have been kept for centuries, scientists have been tracking the climate being replaced thanks to recorded harvest dates dating back to 1354.
This has “enormous social and negative consequences. “
Wine grapes are grown from the tropics to Scandinavia and can be grown at altitudes above 3,000 m, revealing the vine’s “remarkable adaptability” to a wide range of climatic conditions, the researchers note (the Guinness Book of World Records places the tallest winery at 3,563. 31 m/11,690 feet in Tibet).
Finding new wine-growing regions is just a matter of converting latitudes: it’s a matter of locating suitable altitudes or spaces with suitable climatic currents.
But warmer temperatures may be relevant for other regions.
The UK has already seen an opportunity for wine: vineyard acreage in Britain has increased by as much as 74% in recent years, and viticulture now represents one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in the UK, according to WineGB.
Other regions that will become increasingly wine-rich are Washington state and Oregon in the United States, Tasmania in Australia, and northern France. It can also result in a southward movement into Argentinian Patagonia or the exploration of the higher altitudes on the Ecuadorian and Ecuadorian coasts. Colombian Andes.
The researchers considered two scenarios: a situation in which temperatures rise by up to 2°C and a situation of higher warming with increases of 4°C, and looked at how wine regions might evolve in the 21st century.
Globally, about 25% of existing wine regions could benefit from a temperature increase limited to 2°C, and about 26% are likely to regain their current adequacy through appropriate control practices.
“This implies that global warming of less than 2°C can be considered as a threshold for more than a part of the classic vineyards,” the researchers point out. Conversely, for temperature increases above 2°C, 70% of existing wine regions may simply face significant hazards of loss of fitness.
Specifically, 29% may simply enjoy excessive climatic conditions that impede wine production, while the long term of the remaining 41% will depend on the real feasibility of effective adaptation measures.
North American wine production (responsible for about 10% of the world’s production) has lately been concentrated in California, specifically in the famous Napa Valley. But the net acreage suitable for wine production in California could be reduced by as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century.
Moderate degrees of global warming would allow California’s coastal regions to remain suitable for producing wine, but those winemakers will face increasing dangers from droughts, heat waves, and wildfires.
But if global warming exceeds 2°C, the California coast will become a very hot and arid climate for viticulture, which will most likely lead to a decline in wine quality and economic sustainability.
California’s indoor spaces are more vulnerable and can be disrupted sooner. The southern part of California, which is already characterized by a hot and dry climate, is expected to be unsuitable for the production of high-quality wine in global warming scenarios above 2°C. .
But the continent’s northernmost wine regions, such as British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, the Great Lakes and New England, will see their prospects for premium wine production increase, thanks to the shift from cold to intermediate (or even warm) climates. viticulture.
But this applies up to 2 degrees Celsius: from this point on, the danger of heat waves and diseases intensifies (especially in those humid regions).
Spain, France, Italy and Germany together account for part of the world’s wine production.
Low levels of global warming (<2°C) will allow most classic wine-growing regions to continue producing, subject to some adaptation measures (especially in southern Europe).
In more severe warming scenarios, more Mediterranean regions risk becoming unsuitable for wine production, and the only solution to keep vineyards below 45°N would be to relocate them to higher altitudes.
But this can only compensate so far: 90% of the classic wine-growing regions in the coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy and Greece may be in danger of disappearing until the end of the century; And only a small part of this loss (less than 20%) could theoretically be compensated by moving the vineyards to mountainous areas (up to 1,000 m above sea level).
The Atlantic regions are less vulnerable: and it is possible that new regions will emerge in this area (however, this calculation is only theoretical and is based on climate: it does not take into account points such as soil quality, pre-existing land use and other very important points).
Overall, the adequate dominance of classic wine regions is expected to shrink by 20% to 70% by the end of the century, depending on the severity of the warming scenario. At the same time, new wine regions are expected to expand. to the north, especially along the Atlantic sector, leading to a net accumulation of climate-adapted spaces in Europe of up to 60%.
Africa and Asia have recently had low wine production (3. 8% and 3. 5% respectively). Potential emerging wine regions in Africa include the highlands of Kenya and Ethiopia, where the wine industry is in its early stages of development. In Asia, emerging regions with prospects include the northeastern shores of the Black Sea, eastern Anatolia, and the Pamir-Himalayan mountains.
Overall, given the degree of global warming, up to 65% of traditional Australian vineyards may not be adapted to the climate, while New Zealand’s wine regions have the potential to grow by 15% to 60% by the end of the century.
The key question will be to what extent and to what extent the changes will occur, which depends on the point of temperature increase.
And the researchers acknowledge that some of their projects are possibly too pessimistic, as they do not take into account the ability of manufacturers to adapt to conversion conditions.
Existing wine-growing regions would possibly have to adapt to some warming point by modifying plant cover (varieties and rootstocks such as drought-tolerant plant covers), education systems, and winery management.
Wine quality is very sensitive to the ripening temperature of the grape, so climate adjustments can adjust the taste, aroma, and quality of the wine (grape ripening at low temperatures regularly leads to green and acidic profiles, while maximum temperatures lead to maximum alcohol and alcohol levels). acidity, with aromas of cooked fruit rather than new fruit).
And even if the studies open up prospects for new wine regions, they want to create them sustainably. Wildlife habitats can be threatened when areas are cleared for vineyards; And even the conversion of existing agricultural land to viticulture means less arable land devoted to food production. If new vineyards are irrigated, it will generate a festival for freshwater resources.
Source: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations of Wine Production. Authors: Van Leeuwen, C. , Sgubin, G. , Bois, B. et al. Posted on March 26, 2024, DOI Nat Rev Earth Environ: https://doi. org/10. 1038/s43017-024-00521-5