If demographic upheavals were like metal production, China would make the right choice. A 10% increase in metal production can be generated by an undeniable government decree. Unfortunately for China, the same top-down, party-led measures that would generate this increased metal production should be the right strategy to counter the declining population and could make the problem worse.
The challenge itself is not unique to China. Many other countries face the challenge of a shrinking and aging population, but the numbers are discouraging in China. There are fewer Chinese in the workforce and fewer Chinese overall. I discussed the fundamental principles of this factor in a previous article. In short, after devoting abundant resources to reducing the birth rate, the Chinese government is now finding that it is difficult to inspire more births. In addition, societal changes, such as greater prosperity and continuous, albeit declining, economic expansion means that other people are content to have fewer or no young people at all.
The good news for China is that it recognizes that this is a potential problem. We are seeing increased public debate on this issue, especially recently at the National Women’s Congress, the five-year assembly of the Chinese Communist Party’s women’s affiliate. This may simply constitute the highest point and the greatest public remedy to date for the birth rate question.
The bad news is that China’s response, at least initially, could make the problem worse. When General Secretary Xi Jinping addressed the Women’s Congress, he did not emphasize the need for monetary incentives to help new mothers or the desire to create family-friendly institutions. workplaces, with flexible leave policies or childcare. Instead, their technique is purely incentive-based:
“We deserve to actively promote a new type of marriage and reproductive culture,” Xi said. He added that “there is a need to orient young people’s perspectives on marriage, reproduction and the family. “the right result by telling other people to get the right result. We want more steel, my friends. Let’s go.
It is not unexpected that the leader of a one-party political ticket that demands constant loyalty believes that the effects can be replaced by a party directive. There are parts of posh China where this is more true, just as there are probably other parts of fashionable China. In society where this is less true. I think when it comes to the more delicate and non-public dimensions of human nature, party orders have less influence.
Sociologists tend to agree that the expansion of wealth and schooling, as well as the conversion of women’s roles in society, play a role in declining birth rates. As opportunities open up for women, they can have a career and identity as a complement or choice to motherhood. Countries accept this truth and try to offer pronatalist incentives. China’s reaction is simply to advocate for more births.
My downfall is that seeking to replace human nature simply by telling humans to replace it will have limited impact. Even in a less sensitive area, such as punctuality in the workplace, adding an incentive for early arrival or a disincentive for late arrivals will go a long way. more than simply communicating about everyone’s duty to be on time. Xi’s speech thus sets the tone, but without additional replacements, he is unlikely to succeed in achieving the goals.
In fact, it could be a self-negative thing if one of the reasons they give up motherhood is because women need to feel empowered and in control of their lives. Xi’s reaction is to tell women what to do. “Strengthening orientation” means depriving women of their power, something the Communist Party expresses its disapproval of. If female staff can “lie on their stomachs” in the paintings — the Chinese term for quietly quitting — you can be sure that young women will be able to attend meetings on motherhood and make the decision to postpone their decision.
Another challenge for China is its autocratic nature: no one in the government can even recommend that Xi be Array. They deserve to be applauded, whether they are or not.
This makes the spin likely to be perpetuated. Therefore, the 2023 statistics will show a decline, but the government’s reaction will be that society is still recovering from Covid. The statistics for 2024 will show a further decline, but the answer will be that the government has just started sending messages about childbirth and that takes time. This will be the decline that will show up in the 2025 statistics at the earliest, before there is a sense that China is heading in that direction.
Along the way, China will redouble its efforts to teach women a lesson. Few people in China would take the statements of the Chinese Women’s Congress seriously, but all party and government officials want to take Xi Jinping seriously. If we show loyalty to Xi, by lecturing women about wanting to have more children, we will have more such lessons. If women get irritated by such lectures, we will have fewer children.