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There is no time in recent history that further sums up America’s diminishing importance to the global world than the coronavirus pandemic, and no region that illustrates it better than Latin America.
The region has become the epicenter of the pandemic, killing more than a quarter of a million people as of August 20. Among those were Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, Bolivia’s de facto leader Jeanine Aez, along with part of her wardrobe and senior Venezuelan officials.
The three most death-sensitive countries related to Covid are all in the Western Hemisphere: the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. They account for 43% of deaths worldwide. Consistent with the capita, nine of the top 10 affected countries through Covid are in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Losses will be measured in lives and jobs. The International Monetary Fund predicts that Latin America’s economy will contract faster than any other region. With most of them in the informal sector, without social coverage or the option to run remotely, between 30 and 50 million more people are expected to fall into poverty.
If Latin America is looking for a savior, it’s not America. President Donald Trump’s reaction to suspending shipments of non-public protective devices to other countries while calling them “Chinese viruses.”
In contrast, China’s foreign minister last month announced $1 billion loans to Latin American countries to pay for a vaccine Beijing says it will develop. China has also donated thousands of masks, tens of thousands of control kits, as well as enthusiasts and other medical devices to the region.
Latin American leaders are less involved with what you call disease than with whom you propose solutions. Brazil is an example. Bolsonaro, its far-right president, is a best friend of Trump who, like Trump, ran on an anti-China platform, blamed China for the spread of the virus, and promoted hydroxychloroquine, an unproven antimalarial drug, as a remedy.
But now facing the second worst epidemic in the world after the United States and having contracted the virus himself, Bolsonaro has reconciled with Beijing. The change of meaning was almost in fact under pressure from Brazil’s tough agri-food companies, who know that China is a visitor they cannot alienate.
Brazil exports twice as much to China as to the United States. Exports to a booming Chinese customer market spurred a decade-high boom in Brazil and helped him and Latin American countries cope with the post-2008 global recession.
Since then, China has donated 150,000 combinations of masks and hazardous fabrics to Brazil. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso summed up the country’s attitude and Latin America’s largest economy: “China presents itself as a country that must help and the United States as a country that must be saved.”
Of course, China is not motivated by natural altruism. Brazilian soybeans and its other major export product, oil, are essential for China’s food and energy security. And aid is a component of a broader and more continuous effort to raise awareness of China in Latin America at a time when the United States is retreating.
Much of these loans take the form of loans: China is now the largest lender in the region, totaling $137 billion since 2005. Most of these agreements have far fewer situations than proposals through the United States and other foreign monetary institutions.
While China has recently cut direct state financing, largely due to the slow-motion collapse of its main borrower, Venezuela, the industry and investment remain strong. Latin America’s china industry has grown from $17 billion to more than $315 billion since 2002. Today, China is the largest commercial spouse of Brazil, Chile, Peru and Uruguay, and the largest time for many others in the region.
China’s achievements can also be measured politically with Taiwan’s diplomatic recognition.
The United States, which officially recognizes Beijing, encourages its allies to maintain relations with Taipei. Until recently, Latin America had the maximum number of countries doing so. During Trump’s tenure, 3 of them – the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Panama – identified Beijing in exchange for multimillion-dollar infrastructure financing programs.
The United States tried to block El Salvador’s replacement with threats, but failed. Trump had suspended aid systems in the country, while news broadcasts showed young Salvadorans in the United States being snatched from their parents and placed in cages.
Media analysts have been slow to see the trend and are still wondering who will be the main foreign force in Latin America. At this point, it’s even a question. China eclipsed the United States a long time ago.
While this marks the end of America’s short-lived prestige as a post-Cold War superpower, given the unhappy history of American dominance in the region, it is moderate for Latin America to wonder if this is such a bad thing.
But anyone is interested in a new Cold War, given the coups and fatal dictatorships, the last brought to the region. A more likely and no less worrying end result is the entrenchment of a new generation of autocrats who have seen China as wife and model.
It is no secret that China will sell its logo of authoritarian state capitalism as an option to Western liberalism, providing experience in everything from attracting investment to suppressing dissent.
In Latin America, China’s generosity gains advantages from leaders of strong men of all political backgrounds. China has been the ultimate critical lifeline for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, isolating his government from Trump’s “maximum pressure,” making U.S. sanctions useless to anything other than maximizing the suffering of the Venezuelan people.
Today, the United States is not in a position to dictate situations to a region where it is not seriously engaged and is not the only game in the city, something that everyone realizes about the United States. If you need to have any influence in the future, you will need to offer a higher offering.
Declaring China as a new enemy will only force countries to decide on the sides, and most have already done so. As global pandemics and climate replace defining threats to all countries, there will be little appetite for rivalries between major powers. Disconnection is also not an option. Cooperation on the basis of mutual respect and mutual interests is the only way forward, because Latin American nations will not tolerate a throwback to 20th-century imperialism, and are not obliged to do so.
Michael Paarlberg is an adjunct professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and an associate researcher at the Institute for Policy Studies. Follow him on Twitter .
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