ASSOCIATED PRESS / SEPT. 18
FILE – A woman writes her shopping next to a map showing broken Evergrande progression projects in China, in a plaza in Beijing’s Evergrande city on Sept. 18.
BEIJING (AP) — China’s outlook for 2024 looks uncertain as a year of a COVID-19 lockdown ends the dream of a physically powerful recovery for the world’s second-largest economy.
The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are straining China’s ties with the West. A summit between the leaders of the United States and China helped get back on track, but obviously also explained the deep divide between the two global powers. In global order, China is proposing alternative visions of global security and progress whose clients are counting in part on the restoration of their own economic vitality.
Pandemic-related restrictions have been lifted, but China still faces basic long-term challenges: a declining birth rate and aging population (India overtook it as the world’s largest country in April) and its rivalry with the United States on technology, Taiwan and high-tech control. Another solution is to balance the tighter grip of the ruling Communist Party over a multitude of facets of life with the flexibility to keep the economy colorful and growing.
“This year started on a such optimistic note,” said Wang Xiangwei, a China expert and former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post newspaper. “And now (as) we are ending 2023, I think people are getting more worried about what … will be in store” for next year.
A WINTER OF HOPE
As masks and necessities in China waned, for the first time in three years, crowds piled up at temples and parks last January for the Lunar New Year.
“Life is getting back to normal,” said Zhang Yiwen, as he visited a historic district of Beijing packed with tourists. “I’m looking ahead to see how the economy develops in the new year and what the country can accomplish in the marketplace. “
Hopes of improving relations with Washington were dashed by the downing of a Chinese balloon that allegedly veered off course while hovering over the United States in February. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled a vacation in Beijing. A month later, the legislature’s annual consultation ceremony largely accused the United States of trying to isolate and “contain” China.
But China’s reopening has brought a parade of foreign leaders to Beijing, strengthening ties with the Middle East and other emerging regions, speaking out for Russia and rushing to repair relations with Europe, the United States and Australia.
China raised its external profile when Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement in Beijing to repair diplomatic relations. Shi Shusi, a regular analyst on Chinese television, highlighted China’s ability to play a diplomatic role in the world to come.
“China has traditional friendships with these countries,” Shi said. “If we provide some assistance and strengthen cooperation … it seems to be a realistic solution for China to participate in the game of great powers and in global governance.”
During the National Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced an economic growth target of around 5% for the year. But Li, who died in October, was on his way out, replaced by close associates of Xi as he further consolidated his hold on power.
SPRING’S ELECTRIC VEHICLE SURPRISE
China’s economic rebound was short-lived, and the Shanghai Auto Show highlighted one bright spot: electric cars. Exports of electric cars have soared, so much so that in September the European Union introduced an industrial investigation into Chinese subsidies to electric vehicle manufacturers.
“The EV market is getting better year by year, even though the overall economy is not promising,” said Li Jing, a salesperson at a small electric car dealer in Wuwei, a city of 1.2 million people in eastern China’s Anhui province.
Li said his salary has remained solid during the pandemic. However, it has postponed plans to buy an apartment, expecting asset costs to fall amid an asset crisis that is forcing many Chinese to cut spending, hampering efforts to tap into customer demands to bring it to life. Accelerate economic growth.
A SUMMER OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
Blinken traveled to Beijing late, followed by visits from U. S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, weather envoy John Kerry and then-Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
Meanwhile, the economy was slowing as growing numbers of property developers defaulted on debts, caught short in a crackdown on excessive borrowing that began in 2020 and has hamstrung the entire industry. The jobless rate among young Chinese surged to about one-in-five, leading the government to stop publishing that data.
“Life hasn’t gone back to the way it was before the pandemic,” said Liu Qingyu, a young money clerk in Shanghai who was hoping for more opportunities but is instead worried about layoffs at her company.
When Zhongzhi Enterprise Group failed to pay its investors, concerns grew that the collapse of the real estate sector could turn into a currency crisis. The government has begun to ease restrictions on lending for home purchases and increasing structural spending, even as space costs have continued. fall.
“I think in July China’s leaders learned that the economy was in more serious trouble than they anticipated,” Wang said. “So they started pumping more cash into the economy. But all of those measures were seen as incremental.
Small business owners like Dong Jun have slashed prices into the red. Orders were less than part of the pre-pandemic level, he said.
Stewed meat maker Xinyang Food Co. laid off more than a dozen employees, reducing its workforce to 20. “We are afraid of losing money,” said Gao Weiping, a co-owner and manager.
AUTUMN’S CHALLENGES
Relations with the U. S. improved further in the fall, but general generational differences and territorial disputes persist.
Visits by Philadelphia Orchestra members, the American Ballet Theatre, American World War II veterans and California Gov. Gavin Newsom set a friendly tone ahead of a November meeting in San Francisco between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden.
“China has not treated its consumers very well over the past five years due to geopolitical tensions,” Wang said, referring to U. S. , European and other export markets. “From now on, China needs to focus on developing its economy. China will have to be excellent with its biggest consumers. “
However, ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting, the U. S. expanded its export controls on complex PC chips. And a collision between Chinese and Philippine ships in the South China Sea has revealed tensions that could drag the United States into conflict.
As the end of the year approached, the passing of former U. S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger underscored how times have changed. Kissinger helped normalize U. S. -China relations in the early 1970s and met Xi in Beijing in August, when he was 100. It was already on another occasion, when the two sides found not unusual ground despite their disagreements.
The long term will test the wisdom of Chinese and Western leaders, Shi said.
“The future for all of us lies not in making a big fortune but in security, in the effort to … avoid global conflicts,” he said.
Li Yu only needs one task. He found himself in a job market in Beijing in September after his family’s restaurant in northeastern China went bankrupt. He earned about three hundred yuan ($40) for a 12-hour day as a package delivery driver. fallen almost halfway.
“Honestly, everybody’s just looking to get a task, to put food on the table. “He said, describing how other people struggle to get a task and even end up fighting.
Analysts now expect the government to meet its 5% expansion target, but expect a slowdown next year.
This is not only for Chinese staff, but also for the entire world. The U. S. economy is the foundation of America’s prestige as a dominant global power. Even after the collapse of its automakers and metalsmakers, Silicon Valley paved the way for the 21st century. .
In his second decade in power, Xi aims to repair China’s global stature. Much will depend on whether the Communist Party will be able to triumph over its many demanding situations in 2024 and beyond.
Associated Press researchers Yu Bing and Wanqing Chen and video producer Caroline Chen contributed
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