California’s summer COVID wave has shown unexpected, strong, and enduring experts with their tenacity as they enter their third month.
The strength of this summer’s COVID wave is likely largely similar to the increasingly infectious subvariants that continue to emerge as the coronavirus evolves, Dr. Kelly said. Elizabeth Hudson, Kaiser Permanente’s regional infectious disease leader in Southern California. In recent months, subvariants have emerged, jointly called FLiRT. One in particular, KP. 3. 1. 1, has grown at an unexpected rate and has become the most prevalent strain in the country.
“KP. 3. 1. 1 appears to be the most susceptible to transmission,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco. “And it’s something that other people think will continue to dominate, not only in the United States, but . . . all over the world. “
Coronavirus levels in California’s wastewater have surpassed the spikes seen in the past two summers, according to data estimates released Friday by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which took position during the week ending July 27. “high” or “very high” for 8 consecutive weeks.
“This specific impulse . . . It’s strong and durable, a little longer than I thought. It’s definitely very different than last summer,” Hudson said.
California is one of 43 states, along with the District of Columbia, reporting “high” or “very high” levels of coronavirus in wastewater.
While hospitalizations are generally only a fraction of those seen during last summer’s COVID spikes, hospitalizations and emergency room visits have increased, and clinics are seeing a greater number of inflamed patients.
“This is a benign wave,” Dr. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Translational Research Institute in La Jolla, wrote in a blog post published Saturday. “Now it’s a big wave. . . We haven’t reached the plateau yet. “
In Los Angeles County, there were an average of 389 hospitalized coronavirus patients during the week ending July 27, about double the number a month ago. The latter is about two-thirds of last summer’s peak and one-third of summer 2022’s peak.
“We are seeing many cases of outpatients; in fact, there’s been a much bigger increase over the last week,” Hudson said Friday.
For the week ending Saturday, the CDC estimated that KP. 3. 1. 1 accounted for 27. 8% of coronavirus samples nationwide, an unexpected jump from its 7. 2% percentage a month ago.
Since FLiRT subvariants are related, being angry at one of them will most likely offer some coverage against the others, at least for a while.
But moving even further away from contact with COVID, the rise of KP. 3. 1. 1 increases the risk of infection as it has evolved to be even more contagious, Chin-Hong said.
In this contagious context, the number of people who have never had COVID-19 – the “Novids” – is decreasing.
“The proportion of ‘Novids’ is getting smaller and smaller,” Chin-Hong said. “I’ve heard so many stories in the last few weeks from other people who until now didn’t have any illnesses, we’re now in our fifth year” since COVID hit.
Although the new subvariants spread more easily, there is no indication that they are more likely to send someone to the hospital.
But some other people, however, have expressed shock at how bad they feel after their new COVID-19 illness, complaining of sore throats so bad they feel like they’re swallowing razor blades or broken glass, and severe coughing fits that leave them breathless.
Other people may be years away from their last infection or vaccine dose, making this summer’s illness serious, doctors say.
“A lot of that residual coverage has gone down, and then you add a new variant that can circumvent people’s remaining immunity, and we start to see this build up in cases,” Hudson said.
Specific threat points (age, underlying physical conditions, and how long it has been since the last vaccine dose) can also influence the severity of a person’s COVID illness.
It is difficult to quantify the scale of this new wave because many other people are testing at home or not testing at all. But cases are obviously increasing.
For the week ending July 28, there were an average of 452 new cases per day in Los Angeles County, up from 413 the week before. Last summer’s peak was 571. The cases are underestimated because they only come with tests done in medical centers.
In Los Angeles County, coronavirus levels in wastewater reached 44% of last winter’s peak in the 10-day period ending July 20. This is more than double the point seen a month earlier.
The coronavirus in Los Angeles County’s wastewater accounts for 82% of last summer’s peak, which occurred in early September.
In Santa Clara County, the most populous in the San Francisco Bay area, coronavirus levels are highest in all sewer basins, including San Jose and Palo Alto.
The new wave of infections comes as many other people are not up to date with their COVID vaccines. Health officials say everyone ages 6 months and older deserves to have received at least one COVID vaccine since September, but few have. Among Californians over 65, 37% have received at least one COVID vaccine in this period. The same is true for 18. 7% of people between 50 and 64 years old and only 10. 1% of younger adults.
On top of that, many other people have abandoned COVID protection measures and no longer mind spending time in congested indoor environments or socializing with people with health problems. Many do not wear a mask and do not wash their hands properly.
More and more people are turning to emergency rooms for coronavirus-like illnesses. During the seven-day era ending July 28, 3. 7% of all emergency room visits in Los Angeles County were coronavirus-like. This represents an increase from 2. 3% in the previous month. Last summer’s peak for this measure was 5. 1%.
At UC San Francisco, COVID-related hospitalizations have been surging this summer, but have remained stable in recent weeks, Chin-Hong said. That, she said, suggests that COVID patients are in enough poor health to remain long after admission or to require a vacation to the intensive care unit.
The CDC and other fitness experts propose a number of methods for people to avoid contracting COVID or any other respiratory virus, such as staying up to date on vaccinations, staying away from other physically ill people, washing or sanitizing their hands frequently; and collect outdoors or do what you can to keep indoor air cleaner, such as opening windows to let in new air and filtering indoor air.
The CDC says additional methods include masking and asking others to check themselves before gathering for an event. These methods are especially useful when COVID is causing a lot of ailments in a community.
Since most people have stopped wearing masks regularly, Chin-Hong said it’s not a bad idea to be on hand in case, for example, the person next to you on the plane starts coughing.
In a statement, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said that existing knowledge does not allow us to wait for what awaits us during the rest of the summer.
The summer wave of 2022 lasted 16 weeks, with viral levels being “high” or “very high” in California. Last summer’s wave in California lasted 8 weeks.
At some point, however, the peak will peak; Possibly it would not be obvious without delay. In a perhaps positive sign, the CDC said Friday that the prestige of California’s COVID outbreak was strong or uncertain, an improvement over last week’s estimate that COVID-19 was still growing.
But entering a “stable or uncertain” prestige does not necessarily mean that COVID will begin to trend downward. Scientists will want more weeks of knowledge to see if the wave has peaked or if it is just a temporary lull.
In only two states did the CDC estimate that COVID-19 was probably on the decline: Hawaii and Nevada. In addition to California, states thought to be on a strong or doubtful COVID trajectory were Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Idaho, Maine and Pennsylvania. COVID-19 is estimated to be developing or likely growing in 34 states, as well as the District of Columbia. Estimates were not available for seven states.
With an updated COVID vaccine likely to be available next month, doctors have recommended whether to wait or get the existing vaccine now to protect against the latest surge.
Hudson waiting. There is a month to September,” he said.
Chin-Hong warned that older or immunocompromised people, who are at the highest risk of severe COVID disease, deserve to receive existing formulas if they are not up to date.
In Northern California, Chin-Hong said, demand for the existing COVID-19 vaccine has been so high that some people are having trouble finding it. But individual pharmacies still have the vaccine on hand, he said.
Other people who get the existing vaccine may not have to wait as long to get the updated vaccine this fall. Last year, the United States Food and Drug Administration allowed people to receive the updated 2023-24 vaccine. Vaccine as soon as two months after your last dose.
If the same schedule applies for the 2024-25 vaccine, that would mean someone could get the existing vaccine in August, but could still get the updated vaccine in October, Chin-Hong said.
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