Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro survived the coronavirus. He even took the dreaded hydrochloroquine, which he said “worked,” and withstood one of the worst public aptitude errors his country has experienced since the Zika outbreak in 2015.
Your polls are improving.
But all in time and how you look at it.
Here’s a look at Bolsonaro’s political position right now.
Political POV
The figures for Bolsonaro’s surveys are improving. 37% are now a smart president, up from 32% by the end of June. Those who reject Bolsonaro have gone from 44% to 34% and those who are an average leader have gone from 23% to 27%, according to pollster Datafolha.
By combining those who think Bolsonaro is a smart president with those who think he is an average president, we get between 64% and 57% who think he is a bad leader or just an average leader. This suggests, given the margin of error, a small leap in favor of those who are fine with Bolsonaro towards those who do not.
The survey published on August 13.
Looking more into the survey, those who favored Bolsonaro were more commonly business owners, with 58%. Those who didn’t like most were – wonder wonder – students.
The men and women were also divided into their by Bolsonaro, given the margin of error.
It should be noted that most of the build-up in its approval rate came from the unemployed and other people with economic difficulties who obtained monetary assistance under the government pandemic aid programme.
Analysis of the surveys that 3 of the five score points you scored at maximum are all similar to this population.
It’s ironic for Bolsonaro in many ways. For starters, it’s not the “big state” type. He has also been accused through left-wing politicians and his supporters of having prepared anything of non-genocide in the face of the Brazilian deficient, a population that his government has stored economically from the pandemic to the most productive of this government’s capabilities. (Keep this quiet. It’s more productive not to confuse them)..
These are other times for Brazil, so it took a major resurgence to prevent mass Brazilians from entering the homes of the poor.
A less conflicted and more effective government Bolsonaro in alleviating economic misery “seems to be the key to reviving his faltering presidency,” says Kevin Ivers, vice president of DCI Group in Washington, a political threat consulting firm working with investors interested in what is happening. In Brasilia.
Economic POV
For months, investors have seen Bolsonaro face the media and Congress.He left his own party and created a new one. They saw him fight the Supreme Court, a court that targeted Bolsonaro’s lawyers.They have noticed him clashing with the superstar, judging Sergio Moro, who resigned, and attacking two fitness ministers in three weeks in the middle of a pandemic.
Brazilian investors even thought it was only a matter of time before their favorite boy in Brasilia, Paulo Guedes, the economy minister, passed on his resignation to the president. Almost no one thinks that now, even though Guedes’ tax reform would possibly have died when he arrived at a Congress led by the old guard. It’s about spending now.
Budget considerations on the survival of next year’s spending limit have come to the fore as the 2021 budget deadline approaches.
The departure of two senior officials from the Ministry of Economy on Tuesday, following the recent resignation of 3 others, has increased considerations about the feasibility of implementing a more “liberal” economic agenda, while Guedes is publicly emphasized through closet colleagues to provide more resources. to the public for investments under the threat of exceeding the spending limit.
The policy is the same as always now, with congressional leaders for the most productive government-funded allocation for your district.
Bolsonaro and Congress leaders recently reaffirmed their commitment to the spending limit on Wednesday, it is unclear how resources will be allocated in the 2021 budget.
According to estimates by the Senate Independent Tax Institution (IFI), at the top of 1.5 billion reais next year, the maximum would be absorbed through mandatory expenses such as pensions, public servants’ salaries, and constitutional spending on school and health.
That would give them a meager R$75 billion for discretionary spending.
Barclays Capital economists led by Nestor Rodriguez in Mexico said in a note on Friday that he does not expect Brazil’s budget to go bust and defy the Constitutional Amendment on spending, even if Congress would allow for it when push comes to shove.
Beyond Brazil’s fiscal tightrope, uncertainties about the extension of pandemic aid systems such as the “coronavoucher” stimulus until the end of this year, and the imaginable renewal of the state of public calamities until 2021, which pushes the boundaries of the public year, give investors a break in U.S. bonds.
It should be noted, however, that calls to cross the budget spending limit have been rejected through House Speaker Rodrigo Maia, who believes Brazil can meet its budget spending limit.
Bond investors would possibly be too involved with Brazil’s spending. After all, it’s a pandemic. Everybody does it. Brazil has no choice. And if they defected from their pandemic aid efforts to up upbaught up the constitutional amendment and satisfy some bondholders, the economy would suffer and Brazil’s inventory market, driven by traditionally low interest rates, would lose its recent momentum.
Since the beginning of the year, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF has fallen by 35.3% and looks ugly, but in the last 3 months, Brazil shares have risen 38%. Bolsonaro beat coronavirus and Brazil is the cheapest in South Texas since mid-May.
I spent 20 years as a journalist for the most productive in the industry, adding as a member of the Brazilian-based staff for WSJ. Since 2011, I have focused on business and investing in