Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar face the prompt threat of new capvirus disease hot spots (Covid-19) in India, due to the rapid accumulation of new cases, increasing positivity rates and (for the latter two) low testing, according to knowledge analyzed by HT.
To identify the new hot spots of the epidemic, HT analyzed knowledge of India’s 20 most populous regions, seeking 3 points: an expanding positivity rate, a maximum rate of expansion of daily instances, and low tests consistent with millions of people, all of whom marked hot spots around the world. These points were also not unusual in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi, which have become transparent hot spots during the first 4 months of the spread of the virus in the country.
Delhi is the region of the country that has reported a remarkable recovery with advanced functionality in all 3 parameters. Both Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have stepped up their tests, but still have the highest rates of positivity and continue to report a large number of cases.
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Over the past month, several states have given the impression of highlighting with mediocre figures in at least one of the 3 points: Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Odisha. Of these, 4 – Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar – recorded the most alarming figures and faced the early threat of a serious escalation of the epidemic.
While Telangana, UP and Gujarat have increased their duplication rates during the previous period, they remain weak in testing, possibly eliminating other Covid-19 statistics.
Accumulation rate in cases
The accumulation rate in cases can be called the duplication rate: the number of days that are needed for a certain number of infections to double (the higher the amount, the better).
Andhra Pradesh has the worst duplication rate of all states in the country, followed by Kerala and Karnataka (see chart). Alarmingly, those states already had much worse doubling rates than the national average (19.3 days) a month ago, and have fallen even further. In one month, Andhra Pradesh’s doubling rate increased from 13.2 days to 7 days. For Kerala, the duplication rate is higher from 28 days to days and higher than 17 days to Array5 days in Karnataka.
The next two states on the list, Jharkhand and Bihar, reported large falls in their doubling rates. Jharkhand’s doubling rate increased from 30.9 days to 12.9 days in a month, and Bihar’s rate from 27.9 days to 12.9 days. In the past 30 days, only five states (Delhi, Telangana, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and UP) have increased their doubling rates. Delhi through by far the star in this regard, with the rate doubling from thirteen days to 76.6 days in a month.
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Increased positivity rate
In 15 of the 20 states, the positivity rate of Covid-19, the proportion of other people who tested positive compared to those who were evaluated, is higher in the following month. Maharashtra, the state that has been most affected by the virus, still has the highest average positivity rate at 21% (an increase of 0.3 percent last month). West Bengal recorded the country’s third highest positivity rate, 16.1% (11.9% higher than last month). Karnataka (the second highest overall positivity rate) increased through 13.5 percent of problems last month (3.2% to 16.7%) and Andhra Pradesh’s positivity rate jumped through 10.8 numbers (2.2% to 13%). The overall national average positivity rate is 8.5%. And of the five that have lowered their positivity rates, only Delhi and Telangana have noticed a significant change. Tamil Nadu’s positivity rate has been replaced by only 0.2 percentage points and remains close to 10%.
Telangana, which had the highest positivity rate 30 days ago, controlled its functionality: from 21.9% to 9.9%. The cause of this lie can be explained through one thing: an accumulation of evidence. Over the next week, the state has tested more than 14,000 samples according to the day on average; that was 3800 a month ago. However, as mentioned above, the state remains one of the country’s laggards in terms of evidence, with only 9,075 evidence consistent with millions of inhabitants.
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Trial rate
It gives hope to the other people in Andhra Pradesh (30,556 checks consisting of millions) and Karnataka (17,375 checks consistent with millions), much higher than the national average of 12,222 checks consistent with millions. Bihar remains the worst check statement in the country on this front, with about a quarter of the national average (3,699 checks consistent with millions). It is joined through Jharkhand (6775), UP (7,834), Bengal (8,143) and MP (8323) in the last five. Although Gujarat agrees to form well by doubling the rate and positivity rate, checks in the state (9,136 checks consistent with millions) remain below the national average.
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