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(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden will seek to salvage relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel’s embattled government on a Middle East vacation that will most likely embarrass him politically unless near-record U. S. gasoline costs are all about to be shambles. Let the U. S. temporarily return to Earth.
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In Saudi Arabia, Biden will repair relations with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, a leader he denounced as a “pariah” after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, hoping to secure an increase in oil production that could reduce costs at the bomb. that impair its approval. Odds at home.
But a deal is not a foregone conclusion, especially since Biden will have to avoid a shameful withdrawal from human rights that would further aggravate liberal Democrats whose desperate need is already eroding.
The secondary purpose of the policy is hardly easier: to align Israel, a country fed by years of internal political turmoil, with the Arab global as a buttress opposed to Iran. Biden himself arrives paralyzed with the lowest approval score of his presidency and faces a bitter record in the November midterm elections without a dramatic turn in his favor.
“We are aware that the region remains filled with difficult situations and threats,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday.
For Biden, the main goal is to convince the Persian Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production in a bid to combat costs in the bomb.
White House officials insisted the scope is much broader than an undeniable project to increase oil production. They say the U. S. The U. S. will only convey an overview to Saudi and Gulf allies that they deserve to be a major source in global markets. , instead of detailing an express number of barrels.
But this insistence is intended to hide two realities: that the White House does not need to recognize how much Biden’s hand has forced the scenario of power, and that Saudi Arabia does not need to give the impression of acting unilaterally in production, provoking the international sensibility. relations that the OPEC cartel maintained the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
From pariah to partner
Those familiar with the dynamics of the West Wing recognize that the resolve to see Saudi Arabia more as a spouse than an outcast was accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As Russian troops gathered at the border last year, Biden’s aides aggressively argued that the United States seeks to repair ties with Riyadh, despite reservations expressed through the president himself and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. One official described Russia’s aggression as a paradigm-shifting occasion that replaced the kingdom’s American belief.
Russia’s invasion raised the value of an average gallon of gasoline for American drivers to more than $5 last month. in June compared to the same month a year ago. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday predicted a “very high” turnover.
And the electorate is dismayed: 58 percent of respondents on a New York Times-Siena College ballot released Monday described the country’s economic situation as “bad” and one-third of the electorate approves of the president’s professional performance.
According to Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, it is conceivable that the Saudis and the UAE would announce an increase in production to compensate for the underperformance of countries such as Nigeria and Angola under the existing OPEC deal that runs through November. The White House is also likely to ask for help to cover Russian exports as new shipping and insurance sanctions arrive from Europe this winter and leaders try to set a value cap on the sale of Russian oil.
The United States believes “there is capacity to take additional steps,” Sullivan said.
But while political analysts and energy experts agree that Biden would gain advantages from an oil production deal, they are less positive about making a deal a reality.
Saudi Arabia is keen to point out that fossil fuels and energy security remain very important for decades, even as Western leaders consider a transition to more planet-friendly energy sources. they backfire, scare investors, have little effect on prices, and inspire the U. S. The U. S. government is asking for more than it sees as erratic fluctuations in energy policy.
“There’s a little bit of political danger here for the administration,” said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. “I think the default public opinion turns out to be that the adventure is about addressing the existing costs of oil and fuel. . And I think the truth is that any expectation from the American public that it will lead to a big drop in fuel costs will almost in fact lead to disappointment.
Biden’s advisers this week downplayed expectations, saying the president’s fate deserves to be measured “in the coming weeks and months” rather than at the end of the visit.
“He intends to use all the equipment in his toolbox to try to create good enough global energy materials and reduce the value of fuel for the American families running on the pump, and that will be measured over time,” Sullivan said.
The effort is further confused by Biden’s political desire not to appear overly respectful of the crown prince, whose brutality he has continually denounced. White House aides said Biden would raise big rights issues with the guy known as MBS, but the president is unlikely to do so. he publicly rebuked the young prince; in fact, much of the two-day program was off limits to media voices.
Boosting regional security
Perhaps perceiving the difficulties, Biden tried to frame the conflict as a boost to regional security.
This includes an imaginable agreement to open Saudi airspace to all flights to and from Tel Aviv, as well as accommodation for Muslim pilgrims wishing to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia. Currently, Emirates Airline of Dubai, Gulf Air of Bahrain and Israeli airlines can use Saudi airspace for the Dubai-Tel Aviv and Manama-Tel Aviv routes, but Israel cannot use Saudi airspace for any other advertising flights.
Preparations for discussions included on the formal resumption of peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel, adding the option of formalizing some sort of roadmap to reopen diplomatic talks, according to several other people familiar with the effort.
Israeli officials who briefed reporters before they refused to plan express measures to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, emphasized the fragility and fluidity of the situation but said progress was being made slowly. They pointed to Biden’s trips directly between countries as evidence of the conversion drive.
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