Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in Arizona to a critical point of 50%, less than a week before the ballots are issued, according to a new poll.
The same state ballot found that Democrat Mark Kelly had a dominant advantage over Arizona Senator Martha McSally, suggesting that state Democrats can sweep the first two elections for the first time since 1944.
A vote by suffolk University/USA TODAY’s network of 500 electorates probably in the battlefield state showed Biden a 4 percentage point lead over Trump.
Kelly took McSally through nine points.
Biden’s advantage is similar to the 10 surveys taken by others in Arizona in its entirety in September. Biden led in eight of the polls, Trump led in one and there is a tie, according to Real Clear Politics.
Kelly conducted all 8 surveys conducted in September, with higher margins of one digit, the online page reports.
Suffolk’s survey, conducted between Saturday and Wednesday, has a margin of error of 4. 4 points.
David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University in Boston, said Biden’s approval by Cindy McCain took a position right at the start of the vote and can be significant.
“Their help is really vital from a demographic point of view, which many other people don’t like,” he said, noting that their help probably has the maximum effect on whites and moderates.
And Biden reached the 50% mark at the end of the race and with 2% of the undecided respondents, he said.
“This is a threshold to reach,” Paleologos said.
End of debates? The long duration of presidential debates is not transparent after Trump tested positive; Trump’s family circle largely ignored mask regulations on Tuesday.
In addition to candidates’ preferences, the ballot showed other symptoms of concern about the president’s chances in the state, as voting in Arizona is about to begin.
Most Arizonans, 56 percent, say the country is on track, and 53 percent say they have an unfavorable view of Trump, while the same proportion say they sometimes like Biden.
More than half, 51%, Trump’s handling of the “mediocre” pandemic.
The same proportion said he would prefer Trump not to fill the void in the Supreme Court before his term expires, the factor does not seem to have a significant effect on voter opinion, about 43% said he deserves to hold the seat open through death. Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
About 16% said Trump’s efforts to temporarily take the seat made them more likely to vote for him and 17 percent said they were less likely to. Most, 65%, said there was no difference.
The vote of people who called live ended most often before the first presidential debate, an occasion that is considered a bad night for Trump’s prospects.
Next week, Trump was scheduled to return to Arizona, visiting Tucson and Flagstaff on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. However, Trump announced Friday morning that he and the first girl, Melania Trump, had tested positive for COVID-19 and that they would “immediately begin our quarantine and recovery process. “
On Thursday, Biden and her co-formulan, Senator Kamala Harris of California, will travel to Arizona.
The survey found that 18% of respondents said that the most important thing facing the winner of the election is task expansion management and the economy, and another 15% said they treated the coronavirus pandemic.
But the biggest concern, according to 19%, is to bring the country closer.
Trump lags behind in Arizona’s electorate despite an economic record that would generally recommend higher approval ratings.
Nearly 80% of respondents described Arizona’s economic situation as fair and excellent; less than one in five said the situations were bad; when asked if they were better off than they were 4 years ago, 45% said yes and at least 23% said they were worse off.
That’s where pollsters say Trump’s non-public taste comes into the equation.
Grady Bowman, 76, a tucson retiree, an independent who supports Biden and Kelly, sees Trump as self-centered and hostile to immigrants, positions he cannot overcome.
“I don’t like the way taxes are cut,” Bowman said. “I’m not anti-immigrant. I’m married to a girl from Mexico and I have a daughter of Oman who is a Muslim. “
Republican Gilbert Lloyd Knox, 53, sees Trump as the right to establishments that have been stagnant for too long.
“I think America deserves to be run as a business, not as a policy as usual,” Knox said. “He did a lot of things in no time there. And if I had a Congress looking to paint with him, how much more would we have done?”
Marlene Kenner, an 86-year-old retired Republican in Sun City, also believes Trump is keeping his promises, especially on immigration, that he solves his main problem, and is dismayed by Biden’s unconditionality of others.
“He’s looking to look and act like a cute grandfather. It’s completely wrong. He’s so unbalanced,” he says. People think it’s so glorious. He is rarely the glorious user he claims to be. He hasn’t done anything for years. “
Stephanie Waddell, 26, a Mesa resident and fitness worker, is a Democrat who, as a supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. , prefers more liberal applicants in the primaries. Although she is delighted with Biden or Kelly, she will gladly take them to the GOP list.
“I myself am a little more progressive than any of your positions,” Waddell said in an interview with The Arizona Republic after the vote. “But I think there’s a lot at stake in this election besides our voting rights. As a woman, many rights, such as my right to birth control and my right to make possible choices about my own body, are somewhat valid. The line. “
Follow journalist Ronald J. Hansen on Twitter @ronaldjhansen.