MINSK, Belarus (AP) – After 26 years in power, Belarus’s authoritarian leader faces the toughest challenge to date as he runs for a sixth term.
Dissatisfaction with the deteriorating economy and the government’s derogatory reaction to the coronavirus pandemic have contributed to the country’s largest opposition demonstrations since Alexander Lukashenko was its first and only president-elect after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Rumors between the ruling elite and a bitter break with Russia, Belarus’s main sponsor and ally, compound the re-election challenge facing the 65-year-old former farm manager on Sunday.
Lukashenko, who has earned the nickname “Europe’s last dictator” in the West for his relentless crackdown on dissent, has made it clear that he will hesitate to use force again, if necessary, to overturn any attempt by his conflicting parties to protest the results. . Presidential.
On Saturday night, police arrested at least 10 other people as many opposition supporters marched through the center of the capital, Minsk, waving flags and holding the symptoms of victory with their fists clenched at the windows of vehicles.
Election officials have excluded the president’s two potential rivals from what is now a five-person career. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a 37-year-old former instructor and wife of a imprisoned opposition blogger, controlled to attract strong support, with tens of thousands of people flocking to their electoral rallies.
The head of her campaign, Maria Moroz, was arrested Saturday for taking part in unauthorized protests and will likely remain a criminal until the end of the election, Tsikhanouskaya spokeswoman Anna Krasulina said. Not without delay the transparent to which the prosecution protests refers.
Krasulina was later quoted through the interfax news firm saying that Tsikhanouskaya had to leave his home and spend the night elsewhere due to considerations of his protection following Moroz’s arrest and the obvious arrest of some other staff member.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Tsikhanouskaya described herself as a “symbol of change”.
“It had been preparing internally for more than 20 years,” Tsikhanouskaya said. “We were scared all this time and no one dared say a word. Now other people are voting for a symbol of change.”
Tsikhanouskaya crossed the country, exploiting public frustration with Lukashenko’s fierce reaction to the country’s pandemic and stagnant Soviet-style economy.
The president called coronavirus a “psychosis” and refused to introduce restrictions to curb the epidemic, suggesting that Belarusians themselves opposed the disease with a daily dose of vodka, sauna visits and harsh paintings in the fields.
“We were told that the virus does not exist and they called it “psychosis” while tens of thousands of Belarusians fell ill,” said Diana Golubovich, 54, a lawyer who attended the Tsikhanouskaya demonstration in Brest, a border town. With Poland. “Suddenly, everyone learned that the social state Lukashenko boasted about does not exist.”
Belarus, a country of 9.5 million people, reported more than 68,500 cases of viruses and 580 deaths in the pandemic. Critics have accused the government of manipulating the numbers to minimize the death toll.
Lukashenko announced last month that he had been inflamed with the virus but had no symptoms of COVID-19 and that he had recovered quickly, allegedly doing sports. He defended his handling of the epidemic, saying that a blockade would have condemned the country’s weakened economy.
Belarus suffered an economic blow after its main export client, Russia, entered a recession caused by a pandemic and other foreign markets contracted. Before coronavirus, the state-controlled economy had already stalled for years, fueling public frustration.
“Lukashenko has no plan to modernize the country. He has taken away political liberties and is now depriving others of the possibility of economic growth,” said Valery Tsepkalo, a former Belarusian ambassador to the United States who planned to challenge Lukashenko for the president, however, fled to Russia with his children last month to be imminently arrested. “This is the main explanation for the protests.”
When the presidential crusade began, the government cracked down on the opposition with renewed vigour. More than 1,300 protesters have been arrested since May at the Viasna Human Rights Centre.
Standing outside the Minsk tractor factory, an employee spoke of their low wages, emerging costs and the “lack of hope” in Belarus.
“No one trusts the government’s promises anymore,” said Anton Rubankevich, 46, who makes $480 a month. “If this president stays, we’ll keep falling into a well.”
Political observers say the electoral crusade exposed divisions among the Belarusian elite when some of its members first entered politics.
Along with former Ambassador Tsepkalo, the director of a giant Russian-controlled bank that contemplates opposing Lukashenko. The possible rival with good connections, Viktor Babariko, imprisoned in May for money laundering and tax evasion, which he ruled out for political reasons.
In what the political opposition and independent observers saw as a way to consolidate the weakened support of the outgoing president, the Belarusian government last week arrested 33 Russian army contractors and accused them of organizing “mass riots.”
The arrest of the Russians marked an increase in tensions between neighboring Belarus and Russia.
When Russia and Belarus signed a trade union agreement in 1996, Lukashenko aspired to use it to eventually lead a unified state as a successor to troubled Russian President Boris Yeltsin. Things were replaced after Vladimir Putin became president of Russia in 2000; the Belarusian leader began to resist what he saw as a Kremlin boost for Belarus.
Alexander Klaskovsky, an independent political expert founded in Minsk, said he believes the Kremlin hopes that the stormy electoral crusade in Belarus will erode Lukashenko’s control over force and make him more receptive to closer integration of the two countries.
“Moscow is interested in the overthrow of Lukashenko, but at its peak weakening so that it can emerge from this crusade with mined legitimacy, ruined relations with the West and a bad economy,” Klaskovsky said. “A weakened and emaciated Lukashenko would be a gift to Moscow.”
While election officials are likely to claim Lukashenko victorious through a landslide, their unrest will end with the vote.
“It will be about 80% of the vote for Lukashenko, so that his entourage doesn’t believe that the leader has weakened,” he predicted. “The government has enough resources and brute force to force and suppress the protests, yet it lacks the answer to the big question on the road to Belarus’ Development. Lukashenko will no doubt win, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory.”
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Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed.