TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko’s remarks this week have reignited fears that his military could join Russian forces in Moscow’s war against Ukraine, but the authoritarian leader appears reluctant to lend his troops to the effort, despite Moscow’s perceived tension.
Russia has already used Belarus, its long-time dependent ally, as a starting point for sending troops and missiles into Ukraine. Analysts say that if the small, green Belarusian army gets involved, additional troops may simply cut off some key shipping corridors. however, it will most likely not particularly develop Russian President Vladimir Putin’s battlefield capabilities.
“The Belarusian army is weak and unmotivated, and it is ready to fight with Ukraine, which means Lukashenko will try to give Putin more than just Belarusian soldiers,” Ukrainian army analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press on Tuesday. Lukashenko tells Putin, ‘I will help, but I will fight. ‘”
Lukashenko announced Monday that he and Putin had agreed to create a joint “regional grouping of troops” and that several thousand Russian troops would be stationed in Belarus. Lukashenko did not give main points on where the troops will be deployed, and Russia’s motives were unclear, though the comments come as Moscow struggles to fill up lost troops on the battlefield.
Lukashenko also said that Kyiv plans to attack Belarus, warning that Ukraine opposes attacking “even one meter of our territory with its dirty hands. “we must fight” and stressing, however, a day later that the joint force intended defense.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday confided to the leaders of the Group of Seven commercial powers that Kyiv does not plan an army action against Belarus. He said Moscow is “trying to drag Belarus into this war. “
Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council, said Tuesday on Ukrainian television that Belarus “would be held hostage through Russia. “
Fears of Russian pressure on Belarus are not unfounded. Lukashenko, an authoritarian leader, ruled Belarus with an iron fist for 28 years while relying on political and economic support from Russia. Moscow has pumped billions of dollars to boost the economy under control through Lukashenko’s Soviet-style. State with power and reasonable loans. And in 2020, the Kremlin helped Lukashenko to the largest mass protests in the country’s history, following a presidential election that the opposition and the West denounced as rigged.
Lukashenko has publicly supported Russia’s attack on Ukraine, prompting foreign complaints and sanctions against Minsk. However, Lukashenko has dismissed the hypothesis that Belarus would send its own foot soldiers to fight alongside Russia.
“Neither the Belarusian elites nor the population are in a position to participate in this incomprehensible war,” Valery Karbalevich, an independent Belarusian analyst, told the AP. create the joint force, while alluding to the weakness of his own army.
Part of Belarus’ 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) border with northwestern Ukraine lies about 90 kilometers (56 miles) north of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. the Western army’s main supply transport hubs, said Zhdanov, an analyst with the Ukrainian army.
“It is important for Russia to cut off the shipping corridor, because through Lviv, Western weapons are successful in the east and south, where the Ukrainian army is achieving a successful counteroffensive, and this can only be done from Belarus,” Zhdanov said.
However, Lukashenko’s army is small (only 45,000 soldiers, adding up to recruits) and largely inexperienced. The Belarusian army conducts normal exercises, but has not participated in combat since World War II.
At best, Minsk will deploy 20,000 troops, pro-contract soldiers, according to Zhdanov.
Belarusian army analyst Alexander Alesin said Lukashenko may worry by saying his limited troops are needed to protect Belarus’ borders from its neighbors: NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Lukashenko said earlier this year that the Kremlin’s crusade in Ukraine “dragged on” and even warned that he could simply mediate peace talks, insisting on a desire to end the war as soon as possible. Kabralevich said Lukashenko understands that Russia is wasting the war and is “trying to move away from Russia as slowly as possible. “
Lukashenko also faces public frustration at home, as Belarusians are feeling the effects of crippling Western sanctions and skyrocketing inflation, which is already twice as high as last year.
“After the mass protests of 2020, when thousands of people demanded the resignation of the Belarusian leader, Lukashenko is afraid to arm Belarusians. This can cause an internal explosion,” Karbalevich said.
And, Alesin said, Belarusians are mentally prepared to fight the Ukrainians.
“Unlike the Russians, Belarusians surely do not feel hostility towards the Ukrainians and perceive the objective of this special operation. This can lead to big refusals to comply with orders to shoot at Ukrainians,” he said.
Dasha Litvinova contributed to this report.
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