Belarus will marry Russia in the fighting in Ukraine in the short term, according to British defense officials.
Earlier this month, the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that there would be a joint regional force of 70,000 Belarusian and up to 15,000 Russian troops in reaction to what he described as heightened tensions on its western borders.
So far, Belarus has stayed away from any direct involvement in the Ukraine war, its scenario in northern Ukraine being used as a springboard for the Russian invasion in February.
Russia has also amassed troops and tanks in Belarus, while Lukashenko has relied on Russian President Vladimir Putin to remain in power, after claiming victory in the 2020 election that was condemned as fraudulent.
But on Friday, the British Defense Ministry ruled out the possibility of an imminent Russian-Belarusian force and said Russia is unlikely to have deployed a significant number of additional troops in Belarus.
He said that because Putin’s forces are engaged in Ukraine, they are unlikely to generate combat-ready formations of the claimed size.
“The maximum maximum of the Belarusian army probably maintains a minimum capacity to adopt complex operations,” defense officials said.
They added that Lukashenko’s announcement is likely an attempt to “demonstrate Russian-Belarusian solidarity and convince Ukraine to divert forces to protect the northern border. “Newsweek reached out to Belarus’ Foreign Ministry for comment.
Analysts say Lukashenko, who takes a more direct role in the war in Ukraine, would pose a threat to his regime.
The 70,000 infantrymen would come with the entire Belarusian army, of which about 20,000 are aid corps of workers and cadets, their preparation for the fight is not so high.
In addition, the war in Ukraine is highly unpopular in Belarus, where less than a tenth of its population (nine percent) supported sending troops, according to a poll conducted this year by the Chatham House tank.
While Lukashenko has crushed civil society and jailed opponents, sending troops may destabilize his regime and deprive him of well-trained troops in Minsk.
Dionis Cenusa, a threat analyst at the Lithuania-based Center for Eastern European Studies, said the good fortune of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and the sanctions that would be applied to Belarus if it joined Putin’s war effort would be a strong deterrent to Lukashenko.
“As the Russian military is in poor physical condition, Lukashenko will make a suicidal move by joining the Russians to attack Ukraine from the north,” he told Newsweek.
“In case of sanctions, unlike in 2021, Russia and Putin will not have resources to help Lukashenko oppose a new foreign isolation with a serious effect on the survival of the regime,” he added.
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