Belarus would possibly be in a position to go to war with Ukraine. But at what position?

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Eight months ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, one of its main fronts was introduced from Belarus. Since then, Russia’s only main best friend has stayed out of the standoff between its two neighbors.

But now it seems that Belarus is moving towards direct involvement in the war, under pressure from Moscow. And experts say that by doing so, it can ultimately boost its own absorption through Russia.

At an assembly this month to discuss the “rising level of risk” emanating from NATO states in the west, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to create a joint “regional force group” to bolster Belarus’ 70,000-strong army. with about 9,000 Russian soldiers.

Social media is replete with reports of Russian troops arriving in Belarus, as well as hard-to-interpret videos showing trains of Belarusian heavy aircraft moving eastward. Cellular artillery and armored autocellular to supplement their own forces, or if the apparatus is sent to be upgraded in Russian factories.

The point of army cooperation, which will create at least one joint Russian-Belarusian force the size of a division, is new.

Russian troops invaded Ukraine last February from Belarusian territory, but Belarusian forces themselves did participate. Kiev warns that the new army organization may be preparing to open a new all-out front opposed to Ukraine. Even if Lukashenko is still uninterested in sending his army to war. , the lifestyle of a credible strike force shooting in the north will be a permanent fear for Kyiv.

Minsk insists it fears Western “provocations,” given the concentration of Belarusian opposition figures in exile in neighboring NATO countries such as Poland and Lithuania, who could try to create unrest in Russia in the context of the existing war in Ukraine through politics. destabilization in Belarus.

Belarus has theoretically been part of a “union state” with Russia since 1999, a state that confers many benefits on Minsk. But in practice, Lukashenko has resisted full integration and political subordination, betting on the confused game of yielding to the bare minimum. Moscow’s demands while flirting with the West and firmly holding the levers of the premises in its own hands.

However, his ability to do so was deeply compromised when his force threatened amid mass protests two years ago. It called off the uprising, but in doing so, the West was enraged through its repression of warring parties and Russia as the sole source of political and economic support. .

While Lukashenko’s regime is more entrenched than ever, the insertion of Russian troops into the country is a novelty and suggests a permanent merger of the two security institutions is in sight.

“We are moving towards the total erosion of the army and the political sovereignty of Belarus at the very least,” says Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political scientist recently living in Ukraine. “Lukashenko’s characteristics are narrowing. Everything will depend on the effects. How will Russia’s mobilization develop?What happens if Russia loses the war or reaches a level of nuclear escalation with the West?Too many unanswered questions.

“But it is increasingly complicated for Lukashenko to play the game of maintaining his autonomy while Russian resources,” he said. “For now, the Belarusian industry with Ukraine is practically nil, while sanctions have particularly reduced the industry with the West. Russia is increasingly the only option for industry, finance and political support, and the only question is how long it will take to fully absorb Belarus into the Russian sphere. I believe that Russia can lose the war before Belarus absolutely loses its sovereignty, but the current procedure is very alarming.

Russia’s wartime demands can not only increase the speed of Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, but also replace Moscow’s concept of the Russian Federation in the long run. If Moscow wins the war in Ukraine, giant portions of eastern Ukraine will be permanently digested through Russia. With this procedure in place, Moscow’s planners would arguably have less patience with the bureaucratic complexities of the Union state and seek more direct tactics to integrate Belarus into a giant Russia.

“What we are seeing right now is similar to the pressing needs of the military,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, Russia’s editor-in-chief at Global Affairs, a major Moscow-based foreign policy newspaper. “The new giant military organization in Belarus may simply be used to attack Ukraine from an angle, or at least divert Ukrainian forces from other fronts. I don’t think Putin or Lukashenko have big long-term thoughts.

“Lukashenko has obviously made the resolution useful because he still has no options to bet on Putin and Russia,” he said. “The long-term of Belarus’ relations with Russia, whether it becomes part of Russia or anything else, will tell about how things progress on the battlefield. If Russia fails in Ukraine, it will have massive repercussions in all areas, including Belarus.

Most analysts doubt that Lukashenko should get involved in the conflict.

“The Belarusian army has about 70,000 men, but its combat-ready component is much smaller,” said Andrey Suzdaltsev, an independent Belarusian living in Moscow. “The army is too weak to confront the armed Ukrainian forces in the West with their struggle. experience. By forming this joint grouping with Russia, Lukashenko needs to imitate participation in the special operation without doing anything.

A random telephone poll of 1,000 Belarusians conducted in September by Andrei Vardomatsky, a prominent Belarusian sociologist who has been living abroad lately, found that Russian movements in Ukraine are more or less divided, with 41. 3% approval and 47. 3% opposition.

But when asked about direct involvement in the war, Vardomatsky said: “85% of respondents gave a negative answer and 11% said they would react positively. When asked what they thought about Belarus’ use of territory and army infrastructure to enforce Russia’s laws. “Army movements in Ukraine, more than 62% said they were opposed and 29% said they were positive.

Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of Moscow’s Institute of Political and Military Analysis, said he did not know the purpose of the joint force recently assembled in Belarus. to tighten the grip of M. Lukashenko on power. If this worries the Ukrainians and diverts forces, so much the better, adds Mr. Khramchikhin.

Russia faces unrest in the post-Soviet region, upset by Western interference, and will have to take steps to stabilize it, said Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Kremlin-funded Commonwealth of Independent States Institute in Moscow.

“The scenario is prompting a faster consolidation of ties with friendly countries, such as China and Belarus,” he said. “Lukashenko learned he was in the same boat as Putin and faces threats from NATO. , and the integration procedure in general is accelerating.

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