Belarus, a European country of about 10 million more people, the continent’s “last dictatorship,” is now facing a point of no return. What began as a series of protests opposed to fraudulent presidential elections appears to have become a decentralized movement across the country, despite the violent reaction of the government, which included mass arrests and torture of thousands more people. Hundreds of thousands of others marched peacefully in Minsk on Sunday to protest against President Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
On 9 August, following an election that recorded mass participation, the Belarusian Electoral Commission stated that outgoing President Lukashenka, who has been in force since 1 January4, had prevailed with 80% of the vote, despite the abundance of evidence that the procedure had been manipulated.
Following the announcement of the election results, Loukachenka’s rival Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya posted a video, possibly from the Central Electoral Commission where she had been held for 3 hours under stress, in which she read a written call to other Belarusian people to sing from protests and violence.
Soon after, he fled to neighboring Lithuania to be with his children, whom he had sent out of the country before the election. Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, is a Belarusian YouTuber, activist and had been a hopeful presidential candidate, but was denied registration through the electoral committee. He was imprisoned in May while collecting signatures for his wife’s candidacy and remains in custody.
In his most recent reaction to the riots caused by his re-election, Loukachenka resorted to an unusual tactic of dictators: characteristic of the uprising before non-existent external forces. “Today we see who this is,” he said. “As we said earlier, the provocateurs and organizers of all this are foreigners. Loukachenka accused Poland, the Czech Republic and Britain of acting as “marionnetists” who control Belarusian protesters, whom he described as “sheep.”
But the fact of the occasions that have taken place recently on the streets of Belarus, based on interviews with citizens of Minsk with which I have spoken several times by phone and email for this article, proves the opposite and shows the charming and patient strength of the other Belarusians. and an emerging civil society that has mobilized to protect the dignity of others and recover the country’s long-term stolen.
Voter fraud
For his victory in the 2020 presidential election, Loukachenka neutralized the maximum of serious contenders in the country’s presidential election: he had one arrested, forced others into exile, and even denied some to the record. When Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 37, became her main previous festival this year, she did not see it as a serious risk and allowed her candidacy to move forward.
Tsikhanouskaya, a housewife and mother, had no political experience, yet she projected a fairy and an air of mystery and won the acceptance of the voters. She said that if she won, as president, she would secure a fair electoral formula in Belarus and hold genuine elections.
And on Election Day, it turns out that most people in Belarus voted for it. The estimated real effects of the elections, based on reports from the polling stations they controlled to calculate votes before the polls were withdrawn, recommend that Tsikhanouskaya beat Loukachenka with 60% to 70% of the vote. Many electorates flocked to the polls dressed in white ribbons, with help appearing for Tsikhanouskaya.
For the first time since Belarus gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, participation was so high that many others were forced to wait hours before voting. Vlad Ivanov, 19, student working as formula manager in Minsk, independent observer at a polling station. He didn’t allow the polls to be seen or sealed. “Our vows were buried, ” he said. “I don’t know if the urns were burned, discarded, shredded or used as toilet paper.” According to foreign observers, elections in Belarus were never free and fair, but this time it turns out that Belarusians simply did not settle for the fabricated result and took to the streets.
The first protests and the brutality of the repression.
When the government announced that Lukachenka had won with 80.1% of the vote against Tsykhanovskaya’s 10.12%, others asked for a recount. The answer was that the ballot boxes were unavailable, had disappeared and a recount was not possible. Protesters peacefully took to the streets denouncing what they believed to be fraudulent results, and special police forces were sent to disperse them through the city centre and residential areas, and many protesters were attacked and detained.
About 3 hours after nonviolent protests began on election night, others were attacked with stun grenades, rubber bullets, tear fuel and water cannons. “We are the generation that grew up without genuine trauma,” says Anton Mishutsin, 27, director of a children’s theater and father of two. He was injured the first night of protest. “We expected the government to use force, but we couldn’t have imagined it would be so ruthless and violent.”
Mishutsin saw a guy with a wound to his abdomen; and saw a grenade explode at a girl’s feet. Mishutsin’s wrist was injured, fractured and forced to flee. However, he returned the next day. Several eyewitnesses interviewed for this article reported hundreds, equivalent to thousands of arrests several days after the election. Many of these detainees, men and women, were reportedly held in overcrowded prisons and detention centres, where they were tortured and brutally beaten by the authorities.
“Other Belarusians have no right to express their opinion and protest against fraudulent elections,” said Nadya Myshelova, a lawyer, describing the disproportionately brutal attacks through the police opposed to small non-violent demonstrations at the start of the protests. “The government opposes the Constitution and we have no way of avoiding it.”
For several days, thousands of people in Belarus, in urban, rural and commercial spaces, came here to protest and claim that they had voted for Tsikhanouskaya. Lukashenka’s reaction to blocking the Internet, closing access to social media and limiting access to Google and Apple app stores. For 3 days, the population of the capital, Minsk, was unable to log in to get data on what was happening, so they began collecting on the streets. Brutal repressions followed through special insurrection police groups, but did not arrest others: they continue to spread through the streets to express their protest against the elections and Loukachenka’s categorical reaction to public criticism. Violent repression, rather than scaring other people, has provoked even greater protests. Many state-owned employees across the country, Loukachenka’s unwavering top supporters, went on strike to protest rigged elections.
In general, waves of protests across the country are joyful and consistent businesses, in which participants gather or march through the wide streets of the villages or in the parks, singing in unais. During the day, thousands of women, dressed in white, crowded the streets so that insurgent policemen sensed the need for compassion and solidarity, stressing that they are all from the same nation. “We would love for the police to take care of the people,” said Elena Dobrovolskaya, 41. “We ask the police to treat young people better.
At the end of the first week of the initial protests, Dobrovolskatya spotted a replacement in Loukachenka’s tactics: after the first brutal repressions, police began to mitigate violence. Many detainees were also released, some 7,000 in Minsk, Minsk, many of whom suffered physical fractures and bruises as a result of violent police beatings.
So far, among the protesters who have recently rejected at the head of Lukachenka’s regime, there are no primary political messages. This is not the West as opposed to the East, the EU as opposed to the Kremlin, unlike other post-Soviet countries that were unawarely divided between a long European term and the familiarity of an economic and political union with Russia. At first, Belarusians demanded fair elections and then at least a fair record. But he is clear that they need the recount because they are tired of Loukachenka’s reign and need me to resign.
Why Belarus?
While Belarus has very close ties to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the country’s eastern neighbor, and very limited relations with the United States and Europe, Lukachenka has tried in recent years to cooperate with the West. The country’s economy is largely state-controlled and there has been a fairly successful attempt to woo the IT industry, with the government providing tax incentives and favorable situations to the IT sector to attract investment from foreign companies.
Belarusians travel to European countries for tourism and contracts (it is surrounded by Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – all EU countries – to the north and northwest, and Ukraine to the south); many other young people examine in Poland. In general, Belarusians, especially those in cities, are educated, respect regulations and have a culture that values hard work.
But in recent years, the quality of life in Belarus has declined. The monthly minimum wage is $139, while the costs faced by consumers in life have gradually increased as a result of the country’s most recent financial reform and are now comparable to those of EU countries, if not more.
Loukachenka presents himself as a strong leader, ensuring stability; is a “batka”. But over the years, Belarus has stagnated, suffocated by bureaucracy, replaced establishments and lack of modernization. Loukachenka began to lose its appeal, not only to a younger and freer generation, but also to farmers and the class of runners.
Earlier this year, before the protests broke out, the COVID-19 pandemic quietly activated and hardened a spirit of unity within civil society in Belarus. “There is a symbolic social contract between the government and others,” says Dmitry Dosov, 48, an IT contractor in Minsk. “The government provided minimum benefits and a salary, and others obeyed.”
When COVID-19 spread to Belarus, Loukachenka denied the pandemic lifestyles and presented a no to the population. Juxtaposed with the truth of the virus and the number of patients in poor health in hospitals, his position resembled that of a contract. Individuals and businesses have begun to help each other instead of government assistance.
Civil society turns to Loukachenka
“No more worries!” Elena Molochko wrote to me in her email. During 26 years of authoritarian rule in Loukachenka, his crackdown on the opposition and his series of arrests have locked Belarusian citizens into a criminal of concern and self-censorship. Molochko, 63, a journalist for The Will of the People, said its publication was under constant pressure from the government: he fined it, banned it from publication, and had no way of defending himself in court. Last week he replaced the nation’s temper, he said. “People talk brabably about the news, cursing OMON (riot police),” Molochko says. “This is the first time we have felt so much solidarity with each other, we feel this wonderful cathartic happiness of this new feeling. In Minsk, he said, citizens of multi-story buildings left their doors open to protesters who had to hide from police, leave medical supplies outdoors, and taxi drivers offer loose trips to protesters.
Vlad Dobrovolsky, 28, a marketing professional at an IT company, has volunteered since the start of events. When we spoke, he was transporting additional water and food from outside the detention center where other people were waiting and searching for those who were missing, to hospitals for medical staff and injured protesters. He said the cries of those who were tortured in the isolation centre were unbearable.
“At this time, Belarus has developed its civil society like never before, even 30 years ago, when we gained our independence from the Soviet Union,” Dosov said. “Belarus was given its independence, did not fight for it. Right now, other people come out with national symbols.”
Several resources claim that there are no organizers or sponsors of the events. People established a base and donated cash to help the protesters wounded and injured. “It’s an old blockchain,” Dosov says. “There are many spontaneous encounters in the city, many human chains – all with white ribbons.
The other people of Belarus do not depend on Western aid, although the United Nations and the European Parliament were expected to take on mass torture and brutal abuses suffered through the protesters. While some expect tougher sanctions against Lukachenka’s government and expect the world to make the decision that he is an illegitimate president, others perceive that this would leave Belarus isolated. And isolation would only push the country further into the dictator’s hands, and invite unwanted help from its neighbor, Russia and the Kremlin.
“We’ll have to continue the protests,” Molochko thinks. “Ideally, Loukachenka would resign voluntarily.”
Dobrovolsky is sure that “change is imminent.” Some still fear that Loukachenka will not go away, he said, but he himself is convinced that this unity and solidarity among other Belarusians will lead to something good.
“Lately we have two tactics to get out of this situation,” says Dosov, the IT contractor. “Or nepasstiar, figure out how to hold fair elections, or the option would be the oppression of others and violence.” He added: “Loukachenka is very vindictive, it will weigh anyone. Belarus is a non-violent country and will have to go all the way without violence. In any case, the relentless protests and the will of others obviously show that Belarus has surpassed the point of no return and it is increasingly likely that the country will not advance with Loukachenka at the forefront.
Katya Soldak is a journalist and editorial director of the Forbes Media editions living in New York. His most powerful interests are Eastern Europe and all
Katya Soldak is a New York-based journalist and editorial director of the foreign editions of Forbes Media. His most powerful interests are Eastern Europe and everything similar to post-Soviet territory. Katya is the director of the documentary The Long Breakup and the essay This Is How Propaganda Works, about development in the Soviet Union.