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Allowing Moscow to place tactical nuclear weapons on its soil is just the latest sign of its loss of sovereignty to the Kremlin, military experts and pro-democracy activists say.
By Valerie Hopkins
Reporting from Bratislava, Slovakia
Schools teach patriotic classes and teach scholars how to arm rifles, while textbooks have been rewritten to announce the Russian view of history. The factories produce uniforms for foot soldiers fighting Ukraine. Summer camps run by state conglomerates cater for young people from the occupied territory. from Ukraine
These now-familiar scenes would hardly be discussed in wartime Russia, as they were recently drawn from Belarus, an autocratic country of 9. 4 million people, neighboring Russia, Ukraine, and NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Long uncomfortable in the orbit of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, Belarus is increasingly staked, socially, militarily and economically.
The ultimate recent manifestation of Belarus’ loyalty to Moscow, and the risk it poses to the West, is its stated resolve to allow Moscow to place tactical nuclear weapons on its soil, as well as equip its bombers with nuclear weapons. The step, according to democracy advocates and army experts, towards Russia’s absorption of Belarus, a long-standing purpose of M. Putin.
“Belarus’ sovereignty is evaporating very quickly,” said Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat who is now a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “No matter what sphere you take, Russia has become incredibly vital and is rising. “
This has not been the case. Throughout the post-Cold War era, the country’s authoritarian leader, Alexander G. Lukashenko played a smart game, professing his loyalty to Moscow and protecting Soviet slogans of “brotherhood and unity,” while ensuring that relations with Moscow never got too close. threatening their grip on power. He even, at times, reached out to Western nations eager to bring Belarus closer to Europe economically.
That deal broke down in 2014, after Russia seized Crimea, raising the alarming option for M. Lukashenko that Belarus can also be absorbed by its larger neighbor. To express those fears by blatantly speaking of a political union of the two states.
But it completely collapsed in 2020, when Lukashenko cracked down on thousands of pro-democracy protesters, turning him into a foreign pariah. In this moment of danger, Putin stepped in, offering reasonable energy, an economic lifeline, and an implicit guarantee of security assistance, all deserve to be needed.
As Belarus is practically dependent on Russia, Mr. Lukashenko has become a spouse in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, avoiding only the contribution of his own army to combat.
Valerie Hopkins is a foreign correspondent for The Times and covers the war in Ukraine, Russia and the countries of the former Union Soviética. @VALERIEinNYT
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