The Biden administration hopes to win approval from Congress to sell modernized F-16s to Turkey and fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters to Greece. If approved, these multi-billion dollar deals will undoubtedly have significant ramifications for the balance of power in the Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.
According to the Wall Street Journal, which published the news, the leadership expects that, with the approval of the Turkish F-16 deal, Ankara will drop its objections to Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO. Turkey has blocked the admission of the two Nordic countries, it is not easy for them to break ties with Kurdish groups. In addition, officials from the directorate told the publication that congressional approval of the sale “depends on Turkey’s consent” on the issue.
Turkey first requested the acquisition of 40 new F-16 Block 70 jets and 79 modernization kits for its older F-16s in October 2021, in a deal valued at $20 billion. It has opted for more F-16s since it got rid of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program in 2019 and was barred from buying any of those aircraft after receiving the S-400 air defense missile systems acquired from Russia. Ankara has plans to buy up to 100 F-35s for its air force.
In recent years, Greece has purchased between 20 and 40 F-35s. Washington will probably allow any request from Athens regarding these complex aircraft. However, the same cannot be said for Turkey’s request for F-16s.
President Joe Biden has long favored the promotion of new F-16s to Turkey and has expressed optimism about their ability to win congressional approval. At the June 2022 NATO summit in Madrid, he said that a sale of F-16s would not be a “trade-off. “quo” for Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, which requires unanimous agreement among all NATO member states.
Following the publication of the WSJ report, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez, welcomed the Greek F-35 deal, but “firmly” opposed the sale of any ” new F-16 aircraft to Turkey”. “”.
Menendez has broader objections to Turkey’s promotion of U. S. weapons, ranging from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on independent media and opposition parties in his country and his relations with Russia. As a result, he did not give his critical approval, even if Turkey agreed to grant the NATO Club to Sweden and Finland in return.
A Greek acquisition of F-35s, coupled with the ongoing acquisition of two dozen 4. 5-generation Dassault Rafale F3R fighters from France and the upgrade of most of its F-16 fleet to the maximally complex Block 72 configuration, will give the Hellenic Air Force technological merit over its Turkish counterpart, much bigger. This will be the case even if Turkey concludes this agreement on the F-16s.
A Hellenic Air Force F-16 takes part in the army’s annual parade in the northern Greek port city. [ ] Thessaloniki, 28 October 2016. The parade takes a stand to celebrate Greece’s refusal to align itself with a fascist belligerent. Italy in 1940 and fought a far more potent adversary, a resolve that dragged her into World War II and eventually led to a brutal profession through Nazi Germany. Thessaloniki also celebrates its independence day on October 26, 1912. (Photo via Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“The content of the WSJ report is, at first glance, very significant because it indicates that Greece could have qualitative military merit in the long run,” said George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the International European Training Centre (CIFE). ), he told me.
“A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable to imagine a scenario in which the U. S. could simply sell more complex weapons systems (of all kinds) to Greece and Turkey,” he said. -Declares.
“The fact that we have recently been looking at the sale of F-35s to Greece and F-16s to Turkey outlines an unprecedented new trend that highlights some of the U. S. foreign policy adjustment priorities in the Eastern Mediterranean. “
Tzogopoulos believes that the potential sale of F-16s to Turkey “needs to be put in context and discussed in isolation. “
“The issue is which country can retain qualitative military merit in the long run, a discussion that goes beyond the disputed F-16 and F-35 sales,” he said. Military cooperation continues. “
He described Turkey as a NATO member that “behaves autonomously” on several fronts.
“The U. S. needs to lose Turkey but calibrates its strategic decisions according to the new realities,” he said. “Even so, members of Congress (particularly Senator Menfinishez) remain suspicious of Turkish motives. A possible sale of F-16s (and other weapons in the future) will mark the end of a complicated procedure. “
“In the future, the ability of the United States to almost link the sale of Turkish military aircraft with the maintenance of skills in the eastern Mediterranean and anchor Ankara’s possible options in Western personal tastes will be evaluated,” he added. “That’s what will matter and shape U. S. leadership in the region. “
Tzopasspoulos concluded by pointing out that Turkey’s “nepastiatory tactics” go beyond Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO.
“The real challenge for the U. S. is how to formulate policies that allow Ankara to insist on the same negotiation methodology, especially within the Alliance family,” he said. “A first good luck will motivate the Turkish government to look for it,” he said. and aher, and aher. “
“It is the responsibility of Washington to secure both the enlargement of NATO and the rationalization of Turkish behavior — for example, the daily threats against another NATO member state, Greece.”
Suleyman Ozeren, a professor at American University and a senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, noted that the Biden administration’s sale of F-16s to Turkey was already on the calendar before the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022.
“By adding the condition of Turkey’s consent to Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership, the Biden administration aims to put more pressure on Ankara and, in doing so, provide a more compelling argument to Congress,” he told me. the agreement adding the sale of F-35s to Greece to triumph over any resistance from Congress. “
Furthermore, Ozeren believes the deals aim to maintain the balance of power between Turkey and Greece but noted that the balance has changed in the latter’s favor in recent years.
“By selling F-35s to Greece, the United States gives an upper hand to Greece,” he said. “Unless Ankara’s regional policies shift, the U.S. short terms strategy is more like balancing Turkey with Greece in the region than seeking a balance of power between the two.”
While this is possible, Biden’s administration also absolutely needs to alienate Turkey, given its critical position both within NATO and in the region.
“Therefore, the administration is struggling to find a way to please all parties involved in the process,” Ozeren said. “Because the S-400 crisis created a deep distrust toward Turkey’s position vis-à-vis US-Turkey relations, overcoming this predicament would require Ankara to make a major shift in its domestic and foreign policy.”
Turkey had chosen to use the factor of Sweden and NATO’s Finland club as leverage from day one, believing that it would be politically successful to do so for domestic and foreign consumption.
“However, for some politicians with the power to veto the F-16 deal, the ball is in Ankara’s court,” Ozeren said.
“By overplaying its hand, Ankara could weaken its position further while strengthening other actors opposing the F-16 sale.”