For decades, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a Western stronghold opposed to Iran and Russia, to the detriment of Armenia. The result has been the abandonment of one of the region’s only democracies to one of the most bellicose authoritarian regimes on the planet, forcing Armenia to become more dependent on Russia.
Despite Robert Cutler’s assessment in his recent foreign policy article “Putin Transforms Armenia into a Russian Outpost,” the biggest risk to Armenia’s “liberal project” is its necessary alliance with Russia: it is an expansionist Azerbaijan, which continues to use military force to consolidate territorial gains and circumvent multilateral diplomacy.
Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia has faced a constant risk to its security. The Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s left the young state trapped in an intractable confrontation for decades, while Azerbaijan and its sponsor, Turkey, imposed an opposing blockade on 80% of Armenia’s land borders. Over the next decade, Azerbaijan, with abundant economic resources from the United States and Europe, would begin consolidating regional pipeline networks that intentionally sought to circumvent and isolate Armenia.
For decades, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a Western stronghold opposed to Iran and Russia, to the detriment of Armenia. The result has been the abandonment of one of the region’s only democracies to one of the most bellicose authoritarian regimes on the planet, forcing Armenia to become more dependent on Russia.
Despite Robert Cutler’s assessment in his recent foreign policy article “Putin Transforms Armenia into a Russian Outpost,” the biggest risk to Armenia’s “liberal project” is its necessary alliance with Russia: it is an expansionist Azerbaijan, which continues to use military force to consolidate territorial gains and circumvent multilateral diplomacy.
Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia has faced a constant risk to its security. The Nagorno-Karabakh war in the early 1990s left the young state trapped in an intractable confrontation for decades, while Azerbaijan and its sponsor, Turkey, imposed an opposing blockade on 80% of Armenia’s land borders. Over the next decade, Azerbaijan, with abundant economic resources from the United States and Europe, would begin consolidating regional pipeline networks that intentionally sought to circumvent and isolate Armenia.
Faced with unilateral economic blockades, volatile security and an ambivalent West, Armenia has been forced to adopt a position of dependence on Russia.
Faced with unilateral economic blockades, a volatile security environment and an ambivalent West, Armenia has been forced to adopt a position of dependence on Russia. This growing dependence on Russia, however, is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy because of America’s foreign policy toward the region. Large investments in Western forces in Azerbaijan and Turkey deepened Armenia’s economic isolation as well as the security threats it faced to embolden Baku. This, in turn, has pushed Armenia deeper into the orbit of Russia’s regional security architecture, as Russia is the only force. capable of projecting the strength of the army in the region. In short, Armenia has been treated as collateral damage in the West’s attempt to engage Russia and Iran.
But with Russia worried about its invasion of Ukraine and abundant military losses, Azerbaijan has become even more emboldened and showed that it is in a position to control the red line of Russia’s peacekeeping force in Nagorno-Karabakh (known as Artsakh through its indigenous Armenian population). ) as well as that of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. of which Armenia is a member. Although Russia’s largely symbolic peacekeeping presence in Nagorno-Karabakh undoubtedly prevented widespread ethnic cleansing of the region at the end of the 2020 war, Baku’s brazen attack on Armenian sovereign territory from September 12 to 14, in the southern regions of Vayots Dzor and Syunik, revealed the limits of Russia’s ability to fulfill the role of guarantor of Armenia’s security.
Azerbaijan’s unprovoked attack on the civilian population far within Armenia’s undisputed borders (adding the city of Martuni, just 68 km from the capital, Yerevan) is, in many tactics, a direct product of the impunity Baku enjoys in the West, reflecting the inability and unwillingness of the U. S. government. The U. S. toward its despotic partners. To date, Azerbaijan has not been held responsible for the commission of primary human rights violations and war crimes, in addition to planned attacks on civilian populations with banned weapons, the destruction of Armenian cultural heritage sites and the prolonged detention and torture of Armenian prisoners of war.
In fact, Azerbaijan has not only not suffered the consequences of its aggression, but has been rewarded through the foreign community. Between fiscal years 2018 and 2019, the United States allocated more than $100 million in military aid to Azerbaijan. On the campaign trail, US President Joe Biden has twice lifted restrictions on army aid to Azerbaijan, as stipulated in Article 907 of the Freedom Support Act. security and then pledged to increase fuel imports from Azerbaijan, fearing that Russia would cut off fuel materials to Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen even went so far as to call Azerbaijan a “reliable” partner.
However, if the purpose of the West’s containment strategy is to top off the kind of authoritarian expansionism Russia is undertaking vis-à-vis Ukraine, it is hard to believe how investing in a state like Azerbaijan – a corrupt and authoritarian regime that outperforms Russia and Iran in the race for an end to human rights – projects a message of democratic solidarity. especially when it comes at the expense of a nascent democracy like Armenia.
Armenia has consistently demonstrated its ability for an independent domestic and foreign policy, even in the face of abundant pressure.
Cutler’s argument also avoids the deep political and economic ties that exist between Azerbaijan and Russia. On the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev signed an Allied Partnership Agreement, which pledged to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, especially in the field of energy.
In fact, the deal came just days after Russia’s state-owned oil company, Lukoil, spent $1500 million to increase its stake in Azerbaijan’s largest fuel field, bringing its stake to 20%. Lukoil also owns a 10% stake in the South Caucasus pipeline. , as is Iran’s National Oil Company, which is a central node in the allocation of the European Commission’s Southern Gas Corridor designed to circumvent Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Azerbaijan has also used its vast foreign money laundering networks to funnel millions of dollars to arms exporters. connected with the Russian government, as well as with Iranian companies sanctioned by the United States.
Despite the assertion that Armenia’s dependence on Russia makes it vulnerable to Moscow’s influence, Armenia has consistently demonstrated its ability for independent foreign and domestic policy, even in the face of abundant pressure. Despite the observable trend of Russian authoritarian expansion in the post-Soviet world, Armenia has been able to expand and consolidate democratic institutions. Despite its security dependency on Russia, Armenia has participated in NATO-led peacekeeping efforts in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And despite its economic dependence on Russia, Armenia has continued to deepen its ties with the European Union, ratifying a comprehensive and reinforced association agreement in 2017 and expanding economic ties that have made the EU one of the main trading partners of the European Union. Armenia.
On the diplomatic front, Armenia has also recently tried to draw a transparent line between itself and Russia in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Yerevan sent a transparent message to Moscow by refusing to comply with UN General Assembly votes condemning Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine. , opting for abstention. Azerbaijan, which has far less to lose and has regularly sought to position itself in the pro-Western camp, has chosen to absent itself from those votes.
This is not a surprise. Azerbaijan’s recent invasion of Armenia’s sovereign territory is indistinguishable in form and substance from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As of this week, Azerbaijan occupies about 3. 9 square miles of Armenia’s identified territory worldwide, where it controls strategic road networks and transport corridors, hampering the country’s freedom of movement. The Armenian human rights defender reported that during the assault, Azerbaijan intentionally targeted civilian infrastructure and forcibly displaced thousands of civilians. More than a dozen prisoners of war have been captured in Azerbaijan, with horrific videos showing abuse, torture and abstract executions. of Armenian captives.
Azerbaijan’s moves demonstrate blatant respect for the basic precepts of foreign law and a commitment to undermining foreign efforts to mediate conflicts. While listening to the peace talks, Azerbaijan has continued to use the force of the army to force Armenia to make additional concessions. Immediately before his attack on Armenia’s sovereign territory, he took control of the Lachin Corridor, the main artery connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. In doing so, it has displaced many families and jeopardized important humanitarian sources by leaving Armenia with little more than a dirt road. to access the increasingly at-risk Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The army’s continued use of force against the indigenous Armenian population of Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia itself does not reflect Azerbaijan’s honest commitment to peace. By considering force as an effective means of obtaining concessions, the Baku regime is determined to continue to use acts of aggression to enforce its maximalist goals.
Basically, this took the form of Azerbaijan’s search for the so-called Zangezur Passage, which is referred to through Cutler. As part of the Russian-brokered deal that ended the 2020 war, Armenia agreed to open economic ties between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, an Azerbaijani enclave bordering Turkey. For Azerbaijan, however, this hall has taken on an explicitly expansionist dimension, with the government now making new territorial claims over Syunik province in southern Armenia. Azerbaijan’s obvious attempt to forcibly identify a sovereign chamber across Armenian territory is diametrically opposed to both the 2020 ceasefire agreement and mediation efforts.
The only difference between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Armenian invasion of Azerbaijan is the reaction of the foreign community.
The only difference between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Armenian invasion of Azerbaijan is the reaction of the foreign community. But with the recent stopover in Armenia through the speaker of the U. S. House of Representatives, the U. S. House of Representatives has been stopped. It turns out that there was a shift in the West’s assessment of Azerbaijan’s role as a belligerent actor, reflected in framing the confrontation as a struggle for the lifestyles of an independent and democratic Armenian state.
Before Azerbaijan’s brazen attack on Armenia’s sovereign territory, the foreign network seemed willing to forget about Azerbaijan’s aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh to get its help in containing Russia through energy supplies. But since Azerbaijan’s incursion into Armenia, it has become increasingly difficult for foreign networks to hide the ambiguous line between the right of the Armenian people to self-determination and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
By violating Armenia’s sovereignty, Baku has proved that this confrontation has never been about the precept of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. After all, if Azerbaijan’s goals were limited to territorial control, there would have been no systematic destruction of Armenian cultural heritage sites, planned attacks on civilians, and incredibly incendiary rhetoric through the Baku regime that seeks to erase the lifestyles of the Armenian people.
This becomes even more applicable in the context of the unified global reaction to Russia’s authoritarian expansionism. What message does it send if the foreign network holds Ukraine together amid a corrupt and despotic regime’s barbaric attack on its territorial integrity, but then ignores when?Does Azerbaijan use aggression against Armenia? By pointing out that its reaction to authoritarianism is conditional, the West risks emboldening other expansionist regimes, especially those in Turkey, which, in addition to its obvious aid to Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia, continues to function. with impunity it opposes the Kurdish populations in Iraq and Syria and is aggressively positioning itself against Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean.
With separate resolutions now introduced through Speier and Rep. Adam Schiff, as well as the senses. Bob Menendez and Marco Rubio call for an early cessation of U. S. military assistanceU. S. S. Investigation into Human Rights Abuses in Azerbaijan, and ongoing talks about the provision of U. S. military assistanceU. S. to Armenia: Momentum Building Toward New U. S. EngagementThe US is in a region where Washington has lost its influence for decades by giving Baku carte blanche and allowing Moscow and Ankara to consolidate their positions at the expense of the West.
If Washington is to be consistent in its reaction to authoritarian expansionism, it will have to start with a rapid cessation of all military aid to Azerbaijan, strong for Armenia, and a commitment to multilateral international relations to find a long-term solution to the Nagorno conflict. Conflict. -Karabakh, which respects the right of other Armenian peoples to self-determination. Anything less would not only signal to Azerbaijan that its moves are permissible, but would demonstrate the limits of the West’s ability to control its supposed partners, which will surely reverberate beyond the South Caucasus.
Alex Galitsky is Program Director of the Armenian National Committee of America in Washington, the Armenian-American grassroots defense organization in the United States. Twitter: @algalitsky
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