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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the parliament following the clashes on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Pashinyan announced that he would issue a document stating that “Armenia will enjoy lasting peace and security in a domain of 29,800 square kilometers,” referring to the length of the Republic of Armenia’s identified world-wide territories (Arka. am, 14 of September). “Obviously I declare that I will issue a document that will guarantee [this],” the Armenian prime minister said confidently. According to him, “Many other people will criticize us, scold us, call us traitors, they might even remove us from power. … I am not interested in what will happen to me, I am interested in what will happen to Armenia. I am in a position to make difficult decisions for the sake of peace. Immediately after this speech, thousands of Armenians rushed to parliament and demanded the resignation of the Prime Minister. Members of the opposition teams, led by former Armenian presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, used the opportunity to stir up popular discontent against the Pashinyan government. These teams oppose any document that stipulates the popularity of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and, as such, the ceding of Karabakh to Azerbaijan (see EDM, May 11). The police struggled to prevent the crowd from entering the parliament, as was the case after the November 10, 2020 ceasefire agreement after the Second Karabakh War. The uprising was interpreted by many local observers as an unfortunate backlash against the peace treaty initiatives. “[These protests raise] many considerations about the survival of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, as the protesters oppose it,” said Onnik Krikorian, an Armenian journalist based in Tbilisi (Twitter. com/onewmphoto, September 14).
Under this pressure, Pashinyan, seeking to calm the angry crowd, shared a message on his Facebook profile, claiming that what he had said in parliament had been taken out of context and that he would not point to any documents with Azerbaijan (News. am, September 14). It is unclear whether this setback means Yerevan has completely abandoned negotiations for a peace treaty. However, the fact that all major mediators (e. g. Russia, the European Union and the United States) and foreign organizations (e. g. the United Nations) are urging both sides to demarcate and demarcate their borders and point to a peace treaty suggests that it is difficult for Yerevan to resist peace treaty projects for too long. Such calls for a peace treaty have multiplied in recent days as regional actors react to the clashes of the thirteenth and 14th of September.
On September 14, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi rejected Armenia’s accusations, saying that it is difficult to talk about border violations between the two southern Caucasus states because there is no delimitation (Report. az, September 14). On February 19, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, speaking at the ninth Russian-Armenian Interregional Forum in Yerevan, reiterated this call. Overchuk said: “The path to peace in the region is known. It is mandatory to unblock economic and maritime ties in the region, demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan and conclude a peace treaty between the two countries,” referring to the 3 main dimensions of the peace treaty negotiations (News. am, September 19).
Such a position of the CSTO members displeased the Armenian leadership, who blatantly expressed their disappointment. “our expectations were not met,” Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan told a cabinet meeting without naming the CSTO or Russia (Azatutyun. am, September 16). Armenia faced a similar backlash in its appeal to the UN Security Council. The members of the organization suggested that the two countries of the South Caucasus take steps for the delimitation and demarcation of borders, as well as sign a peace treaty (Dppa. un. org, September 15).
The reactions of other countries and politicians differed significantly from those of the members of the United Nations and the CSTO. For example, the speaker of the U. S. House of RepresentativesU. S. Secretary of State Nancy Pelosi, speaking at her stop in Armenia on September 17 and 18, followed a partisan position and accused Azerbaijan of unacceptable attacks against Armenia (News. am, September 18). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for his part, has not taken such a one-sided approach. In a telephone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Blinken suggested that he “stop hostilities and under pressure that the United States would press for an early cessation of fighting and a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan” (State. gov, September 13).
Secretary Blinken reinforced his role as mediator between the parties and effectively brought the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the table in a trilateral setting in New York, where the two ministers had traveled to attend the United Nations General Assembly (State. gov, September 19). While no major progress was announced at the ministerial meeting, Blinken suggested that the parties meet again before the end of September 2022. A similar plan was proposed at the EU-mediated summit of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Brussels on 31 August (. az Report, 1 September; Armenpress. com, 20 September). According to the agreements reached in Brussels, the foreign ministers are ready to meet and work on draft texts for a peace treaty. Thus, the coming months will show whether either side can succeed. on all obstacles to a comprehensive peace treaty, which is widely regarded as a necessity for achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.
By the Jamestown Foundation
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