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As foreign sanctions hit Russia and many Western corporations have stopped doing so in the country, Moscow has tried to fill in the gaps with a program it calls “parallel imports. “
Armenia has reported a nearly 50% increase in its industry with Russia, raising questions about Armenia’s role in supplying Russia with the foreign goods its economy needs.
Although knowledge cannot determine whether Armenian corporations are in fact involved in parallel exports or re-exports, the figures of the uncooked industry have attracted the attention of Western diplomats in Yerevan.
Armenian exports to Russia, its main trading partner, increased by 49% in the first part of 2022 compared to the same period last year, the country’s official statistics firm reported in early August. Imports increased by 42%.
This suggests a re-export peak, independent economist Suren Parsyan told Eurasianet. “There is no data that measures re-export in particular, but there are clear economic signs that we believe the volume is higher,” he said. . For example, the productive sector grew by only 2. 7%, compared to the overall growth of exports.
However, authoritative knowledge is hard to come by. Armenia’s customs government only publishes statistics twice a year, and the last ones it has released are in 2021. Meanwhile, Russia has stopped publishing information. Russia’s customs service had in the past released monthly figures on foreign trade, but the most recent update took position in January, a month before Russian tanks arrived in Ukraine.
Western embassies in Yerevan are analyzing whether the expansion of exports to Russia is “natural” or “unfavorable,” a diplomat told Eurasianet on condition of anonymity.
Among the “natural” explanations: the increase in dram made Armenian exports to Europe unfavorable and exporters moved to Russia; Armenian companies can take advantage of the new shortage of Western products in Russian markets; and Russian emigrants to Armenia have established business there and do business with Russia.
“However, we do not know, and we have doubts, whether those 3 herbal reasons would make such a resumption of trade,” the diplomat said.
There are other degrees of fear about what might happen, the diplomat said: “Circumvention of sanctions is our attention, but we don’t have enough knowledge yet. But re-exports, of course, are also a fear. “
Sanctions against Russia and a possible economic crisis in that country have far-reaching consequences for Armenia’s own economy, which is heavily dependent on Russia. But Armenian officials are also under pressure on the positive aspect of the new environment. enter foreign markets through other means, adding through Armenian territory,” Economy Minister Vahan Keroviaan told Shant TV shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine. “In addition to many problems, there are also small opportunities. “
The ministry did not respond to Eurasianet’s questions at the time of publication of this account.
While Western diplomats have expressed fear of similar patterns of re-export to Russia via Turkey, the volume of Armenian industry has declined so much that it is not a problem, the diplomat said.
Given Armenia’s geopolitical situation, Western governments have long been lenient when it comes to the economy with Yerevan’s anti-Western partners.
Today, Armenia is closer to Russia than at any time in its post-independence history. Meetings between Armenian and Russian officials are becoming more common since the end of the 2020 war with Azerbaijan; Russia has negotiated a ceasefire to this war and Russian peacekeepers are now protecting the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia, in turn, has abstained from voting against Russia in foreign forums, agreed to buy Russian fuel in rubles and even plans to subsidize Black Sea ferry connections from Georgia to encourage the industry with Russia.
As long as Armenia does not inspire circumvention of sanctions, “I don’t think it will have a serious effect on the West’s relations with Armenia,” analyst Benjamin Poghosyan told Eurasianet. “The United States is interested in weakening Russia’s positions. “in Armenia,” he said. But they also don’t need to weaken Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s position, he said.
“They know very well that they can’t find bigger candidates for leadership, so I don’t think the United States is interested in making economic life in Armenia even more difficult, putting pressure on Pashinyan. “
“We perceive the effect of sanctions against Russia on the Armenian economy,” a spokesman for the U. S. Embassy told Eurasianet. U. S. in Yerevan. ” We appreciate the government’s continued commitment to comply with those sanctions. “
By Eurasianet. org
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