By Nicolas Misculin
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentines will go to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots in a general election amid the South American country’s worst economic crisis in two decades, which has fueled pressure from a far-right libertarian who is in pole position to win.
The vote is likely to upset Argentina’s already fragile markets, have an effect on its ties with trading partners such as China and Brazil, and chart a political course for the country, a top grain exporter with huge reserves of lithium and shale gas.
Polls open at 8:00 a. m. (1100 GMT) and three of the leading candidates are likely to split the vote: libertarian economist Javier Milei, centrist Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa and conservative Patricia Bullrich.
Milei, who has pledged to “reduce” the prestige quo economically and politically, is the candidate to beat, as the electorate flocks to his devastating message, tired of 138% inflation and poverty affecting more than two-fifths of the population. .
“People have to change things,” said Federico Aurelio, president of consulting firm Aresco. “How? They have no idea, but they change. “
Milei, an impetuous former TV commentator compared to Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, scored a surprise victory in August’s open primary, though Massa and Bullrich were not far behind and could well prove to be a close race. waiting for a transparent winner.
A candidate will have to get more than forty-five percent of the vote, or 40 percent and a 10-point lead, to avoid a runoff, which would take place on Nov. 19. Voting will close on Sunday at around 6:00 p. m. (21:00 GMT) and the first effects are expected at 21:00 (00:00 GMT).
Whoever wins will have to contend with a life-support economy: central bank reserves are empty, recession is imminent after a primary drought, and a $44 billion program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is faltering.
In the midst of this crisis, Milei rose sharply, promising surprise treatment for the entire economy, adding dollarization, the closure of the central bank, a drastic easing in the duration of government, and the privatization of state-owned entities.
“He’s the one who understands the situation in the country and understands how to save it,” said Nicolas Mercado, a 22-year-old student in Buenos Aires.
Massa, the current economy chief, remains in the race despite triple-digit inflation for the first time since 1991. He promised to reduce the budget deficit, stick to the peso, and protect the Peronist social safety net.
“Massa represents some of the classic promises I made: public health, public education, what I need to protect with my vote,” said astrologer Flavia Vazquez.
Bullrich, a former Minister of People’s Security in business circles, has seen it diluted by Milei’s unforeseen appearance. Pollsters see her as the candidate most likely to miss a runoff in the top three.
(Reporting by Nicolas Misculin; editing by Adam Jourdan and Chizu Nomiyama)
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