The alarm bell has been ringing for some time. In recent weeks, we have noticed an acceleration of the socioeconomic collapse of the populous Conurbano region (the ring of municipalities surrounding the city of Buenos Aires) where one of the worst poverty in the country is concentrated.
In the foreground is the forced expropriation of land in several of the poorest towns in the province of Buenos Aires, almost all with some point of premeditation and criminal organization, but also more as a result of a violent expansion of urban migration to the city. Buenos Aires. region (AMBA), which led to the expansion of large slums (“squalor villages”) in inhumane conditions. Exacerbated, of course, by the global coronavirus pandemic and its next economic implosion. This is in addition to a stable accumulation of violent crimes in the AMBA region, which begins approximately one month and part after the start of prolonged quarantine, caused by declining economic opportunities (legal and illegal) and de facto rape. foreclosure rules. Equally disturbing, alarms have sounded over the breakdown of political talks between the government and the opposition.
The early days of the Covid-19 epidemic sparked an unprecedented collaboration between the ruling Frente de Todos coalition and the main opposition force, Together for Change. A kind of triumvirate has emerged with President Alberto Fernández in the center, the mayor of the city Horacio. Rodríguez Larreta on his left and the governor of the province Axel Kicillof on his right, the 3 have the most productive politicians in the country in opinion polls, Alberto achieves degrees never before achieved through Rael Alfonson, Carlos Menem and Néstor Kirchner (Note that Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has never been close to those summits) Larreta represented the pigeons among the opposition, running for greater cooperation with the government and putting “politics” before “ideology. ” Kicillof, historically an intransigent close to Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner, also played ball.
In an earlier column (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game”), we used a montage through Alberto Fernandez as Notorious B. I. G. rapper, and Rodríguez Larreta in the role of 2pac Shakur, destined to constitute the fatal and damaging game of love and hatred among leaders of diametrically opposed spaces, but who want to survive each other. have been dragged by their marginal sectors to the extremes: Kirchnerism in one group, the edition of Patricia Bullrich’s macrism in the other. Polarization, dubbed “the crack” in Argentina, has been the ultimate political ideological success of recent times, in which it has allowed extremes to the whole, with former presidents (Macri and Fernández de Kirchner) dominating the political landscape. This polarization is also regarded as one of the main culprits of a constant economic mediocrity, such as a lack of political consensus. almost everything has generated high degrees of uncertainty, i. e. with regard to the economy and its key indicators.
And then a question arises: Have we passed the point of no return? Indeed it is possible, but let’s take a moment to summarize our terms first. President Alberto campaigned for unity, presenting himself as a consensus builder who managed to unite Fernández de Kirchner and his supporters, the leader of the Frente Renovador Sergio Massa and his followers, and the league of Peronist governors under the same banner, to expel to Macri from Casa Rosa. Rodríguez Larreta, aligned with the former governor of the province of Buenos Aires María Eugenia Vidal and some other actors of the primary force within the opposition front, built his political reputation on pragmatism and his ability to interact in political negotiations. During Macri’s presidency, they opposed “anti-politics,” with former staff leader Marcos Peña at the helm, but in fact responding to Macri’s worldview. For them, the negotiations with the opposition and all the dramatization that is the key to political discourse in Argentina was old and obsolete. Modern marketing methods, social media and simple language based on emotions were the key to winning the hearts and souls of the electorate.
The point of non-recoil would then be explained through a time when the forces of charm that make up the centristas (Alberto-Horacio) would be weakened by the magnetic charm of the extremes (Cristina-Mauritius), to the point where each and every resolution. taken by the government and the opposition is read in the category “Us and them”, resulting in the total failure of any negotiation. This was the case at the height of Kirchnerism, but Cristina controlled Congress. That’s why Macri has also become president, because much of the country voted to overthrow the CFK, which also happened after Macri’s coalition defeated Cristina and the rest of the fragmented Peronist front in the mid-term elections of 2017 and, instead of seeking consensus, advancing some primary reform spending without opposition support. , which allowed him to govern (with Massa’s support) for nearly two years.
It is not about politics, but about the economic consequences of such a break. Most political actors agree that the restructuring of the sovereign debt of the Economy Minister, Martín Guzmán, who took Argentina out of its ninth default, was mandatory but not a sufficient condition to put the country on the path of economic viability. Guzman has now indicated that it will halve the budget deficit next year, which is a safe point of austerity in an election year, all with restructuring negotiations with the International Fund currency underway at the same time. At the heart of his vision, and of any economic plan in that regard, is a revival of the productive apparatus and the “animal spirits” of demand, which translates into positive GDP growth. optimism about the future, which translates into investment. Even if those investments seek to capitalize on safe “competitive advantages,” such as incredibly reasonable labor. t, there’s no investment.
It is known whether we have reached the point where Alberto’s early speeches became obsolete, a little of the old vain promises to which we are all accustomed, here and in the world. But we’re close. If we’re already off limits.
This article gave the impression of the Buenos Aires Times, the only English-language newspaper in Argentina.
Former Forbes trained in Latin America, with delight in markets and rich list teams, lately I am the virtual director of Editorial Profile, one of the largest
Former Forbes expert in Latin America, with delight in markets and teams of rich lists, lately I am the virtual director of Editorial Perfil, one of the largest media corporations in Argentina. With experience in sociology, philosophy and economics, I am a skilled skeptic with a critical eye aimed at Argentina, Latin America and technology. I am also the chief executive of the Buenos Aires Times, Argentina’s only English-language newspaper.