The number of people in high-risk groups receiving the COVID-19 vaccine around the world is “appalling,” the World Health Organization (WHO) warned, in a direct message about global health threats in 2024.
From the emergence of the new JN.1 coronavirus strain, to concerns over monkeypox in central Africa, to the spread of mosquito-carried disease in new countries thanks to climate change, health looks set to hit the headlines once again next year.
As we close out 2023, we take a look at what the next 12 months may bring.
Sky News spoke to Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, an expert on infectious diseases, who leads the WHO’s Department for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention.
“I don’t understand why it’s a surprise,” she tells Sky News, when asked about rising COVID-19 cases.
“It’s true that we haven’t noticed the seasonality with COVID yet. But for all other respiratory diseases, we see an increase in the fall and winter months in temperate regions. Therefore, this does not deserve to be taken as a surprise. “
That’s why vaccination campaigns against diseases like the flu and COVID-19 start early, targeting the most vulnerable, he says.
And he adds: “But the vaccination policy in all the countries of the teams at risk is appalling. . .
“For me, that’s the biggest frustration. . . COVID-19 has solutions, the flu has solutions, that can save you from serious illness and death. Why don’t we use them?”
Climate change and spread of Dengue fever
And it’s not just the coronavirus that may be in the spotlight next year.
As world leaders gathered in Dubai to discuss the fight against climate change earlier this month, global warming is already having an effect on the spread of infectious diseases, says Dr Van Kerkhove.
Dengue fever, a virus transmitted to humans by mosquitoes, is a good example.
“This illustrates the challenges, because mosquitoes are moving further and further north and south,” he says.
“Countries like Italy are experiencing dengue transmission within their borders that they have never experienced before. “
It is thought that dengue-carrying mosquitoes might not be unusual in England until the 2040s.
According to her, the weather now plays a role.
“This is not a theoretical threat to the future. It’s now and we have to face it now. “
Monkeypox outbreak
El Dr. Van Kerkhove spoke about an outbreak of the monkeypox virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo in central Africa.
“We have a huge outbreak which is now in sexual networks,” she says. “Once this virus gets into sexual networks it can transmit quite efficiently between people.”
Monkeypox is a disease caused by infection with the mpox virus. There are two types of mpox viruses: Clade I and Clade II.
Clade I has a higher mortality rate, with a mortality rate of around 10%. Clade II is milder and this is the type that used to circulate in Europe, Dr. Van Kerkhove said.
“That’s why we’re concerned about the expansion of Clade I to other countries, and at the moment very little attention is paid to mpox,” he says.
She said these kinds of things don’t need to be in the news every day, as long as governments themselves don’t lose focus on infectious threats.
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Infectious Diseases in War Zones
The world enters the year 2024 with two conflicts (Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas) monopolizing attention, as do a host of other underappreciated wars around the world.
For fitness professionals, desperate situations in war zones and the destruction of homes increase the threat of infectious disease spread.
“This makes it even harder,” says Dr. Van Kerkhove. “In addition to the infectious threats they face, other people are hungry, malnourished, have no clean water or sewage systems, and are cold.
“People who are scared and threatened will suffer more when infectious diseases are around.”
Read more: COVID strain classified as ‘variant of interest’ Baroness Mone admits she will get advantages from PPE contract
Are we prepared for another pandemic?
The pandemic will come out of nowhere.
Governments have reeled as cases rise, with their citizens locked down or unable to enjoy the suffering of their loved ones.
So, four years later, is the world better prepared?
Yes and no, says Dr. Van Kerkhove.
On the one hand, he says, it looks at capacity globally for things like surveillance and sequencing of emerging threats, as well as advances in spaces like infection prevention and the efforts of networked fitness workers.
“The work in those areas put us in a much better position for the next one,” she says.
But there are things that make Dr. Van Kerkhove less sure about our preparedness to deal with the pandemic.
She explains, “I observe the decline of what is accepted as true in the world. I see the attacks on science and scientists, the politicization of all facets of COVID. “
He also argued that countries would possibly be less willing to report a new pathogen due to monetary and political incentives.
“So, on my less positive side, I’m concerned that, in some respects, we’re worse off than we were four years ago,” he adds.