Since Russia invaded Ukraine 8 months ago, pro-Kyiv Western governments have tended to view war in terms of black and white with little sympathy for countries oscillating between the West and Moscow.
U. S. leaders describe Ukraine as a matter of protecting a “rules-based foreign order” that is under attack by rogue authoritarians.
In Arab countries, however, this Manichean narrative is widely rejected. Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) necessarily view the war in Ukraine as a confusing European conflict, one that requires Arab states to oppose Vladimir Putin’s government.
Although no Arab government, with the exception of Syria, has categorically supported Russia’s invasion, profession and annexation of Ukrainian lands, Arab statesmen do not believe that their governments deserve to cut ties with Moscow because of this conflict.
Thus, while GCC states have broadly supported UN General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, none have joined Western powers in implementing anti-Moscow sanctions or other policies aimed at crushing Russia.
“Most emerging countries in Asia and Africa, as well as the Middle East, saw the war in Ukraine as the kind of defining and transformative moment in foreign relations that the West creates,” said Hussein Ibish, senior resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. in Washington, he wrote this month.
As the war in Ukraine enters its ninth month, some analysts will likely continue to defy the Saudis to Western tension to align themselves in opposition to Moscow. is employing this war, and its reaction to it, to send a message to the US. UU. de that Saudi Arabia is not a vassal state of Washington.
“The Saudis have been under pressure in recent years to seek to become entangled in what the United States calls ‘great force competition,'” said Gerald Feierstein, a former U. S. ambassador to Yemen and senior vice president of the Middle East Institute. Its interests, the Saudis made clear, have centered on maintaining strong relations with its main security partner, the United States, its largest economic partner, China, and its key OPEC partner, Russia.
Riyadh has maintained cooperative relations with Russia since Putin sent troops to neighboring Ukraine last February. Indeed, at the start of the war, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Co invested at least $500 million in Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil, as did the West. punish those giants of Russian power with sanctions.
More recently, on October 5, the OPEC cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to reduce oil production. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, maintains that the ruling is strictly concerned with its monetary and advertising interests, as well as market stability.
However, the announcement angered officials in Washington, who claim the OPEC resolution will help Russia resist U. S. and European sanctions and undermine Western efforts to isolate Putin’s government.
“There was no doubt that Riyadh perceived the need to maintain cordial ties with Moscow, either to coordinate oil production and for a strong discussion with Russia about its Iranian initiatives,” Joseph A. said. Kechichian, senior researcher at the King Faisal Center in Riyadh. Al Yazeera. referring to Moscow’s relations with Saudi Arabia’s regional rival Iran.
“In 2022, Saudi officials were concerned about keeping the value of oil solid at around $100 per barrel, necessarily to fund a variety of progressive investments in the country, which could only be achieved through unified OPEC agreements, but also to maintain communication. Open channels to discuss issues.
Continuing Saudi Arabia’s relations with Russia, even if they are based on expediency and opportunism, will increase tensions between Riyadh and Washington, analysts say. The law illustrates how much Saudi Arabia’s symbol and reputation in Washington has suffered this year, especially in the wake of the most recent developments in OPEC.
“The Russian attack on Ukraine has highlighted [Riyadh’s] policy and led them to take sides, which they don’t need to do,” Feierstein said, adding that Saudi Arabia’s recent resolution on OPEC “reflects the truth that all of its resolutions are noted in the United States as follows: ‘Are you with us or are you opposed to us?’»
David Roberts, an associate professor at King’s College London, said OPEC’s resolution had been “extremely disgusting” in the United States.
“That’s all that matters. This has necessarily exacerbated a long-standing rift in Saudi-US relations dating back to 2019 and the attack on Abqaiq,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco services that were claimed through Yemen’s Houthi rebels. “So the elastic band that holds Saudi Arabia and the United States together has long stretched to the point of breaking,” Roberts added.
As the East-West fork accelerates as the festival of power intensifies, maintaining proximity to the United States and Russia will prove tricky for Saudi Arabia. However, Riyadh has made it clear that it will pursue this complicated purpose that requires careful navigation of the world’s changing geopolitical landscape. Although the kingdom’s cooperation with Russians in power, investment and other spaces has continued since Feb. 24, Saudi Arabia has shown degrees of support for Ukraine as the kingdom tries to position itself as a useful mediator.
In September, Saudi Arabia and Turkey played a key role in facilitating a prisoner exchange between Kyiv and Moscow, which resulted in the release of some Western citizens (including two US citizens) after they were captured on the battlefield while fighting for Ukraine. This resolution helped Saudi Arabia provide its position in the clash with the US. The US and Europe as beneficial, rather than harmful, to Western interests.
Earlier this month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had a verbal exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. MBS pledged to provide the war-torn country with $400 million in non-lethal aid, a move many analysts saw as an effort by Saudi Arabia. create a stronger belief in western Riyadh to be impartial in the conflict.
“It’s hard to see Saudi humanitarian aid as anything more than a gesture made after American anger over OPEC’s resolution was felt. Riyadh said it consistently supports resolutions of non-violent confrontations, but refrained from categorically condemning the invasion of Ukraine,” Imad Harb, director of studies and studies at the Arab Center in Washington DC, told Al Jazeera. “Now the aid is definitely appreciated through Ukraine, but it’s hard to separate it from the acrimony of the resolution to cut off oil. “
Looking ahead, there is no sign of a quick solution to the war in Ukraine. The global implications are frightening, especially given the dangers to food security and the option of using nuclear weapons in conflict.
Kechichian said it was important to ask whether a prolongation of the war could lead to a change in Riyadh’s foreign policy.
“However, what will not happen is direct involvement in the conflict, as the kingdom has called for an end, provided humanitarian aid to the unfortunate Ukrainian population, voted for the country’s territorial integrity in UN resolutions, and worked to convince President Vladimir Putin to prevent Russian attacks on Ukrainians. ” Added.
“The biggest progression would likely occur after ongoing battles have intensified clashes, adding the use of tactical nuclear weapons, forcing Riyadh to distance itself from Moscow. Such an escalation will likely have consequences,” Kechichian continued.
He argued that in the Gulf region, the logic of such an attitude would be based on Iran’s future acquisition and use of nuclear weapons, even though Tehran maintains that its nuclear program is strictly peaceful.
“Under those circumstances, Riyadh would inevitably pursue a goal, embarking on a nuclear program with the express goal of obtaining such weapons, to protect itself and its regional allies,” Kechichian said. Ukraine and were wary of the protracted clashes that castrated the two belligerents, one of whom could, in a moment of general madness or frustration, resort to the use of weapons of mass destruction. “