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Infections remain very low, despite symptoms of a slight increase. Now, experts are looking for clues about what life will be like with the coronavirus this winter and beyond.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
Echoing trends from previous years, coronavirus infections are slowly surging in some parts of the country, a harbinger of an imaginable wave of autumn and winter. he said in interviews.
Infections have been trending upward for about 4 weeks, based on knowledge gathered from wastewater monitoring, positivity rates, and hospitalizations and emergency room visits. pandemic seasonal threat, a permanent feature of the infectious disease landscape.
Wastewater shows the largest increases in the Northeast and South, followed by the West and Midwest. After hitting a low in late June, hospitalizations are emerging again, though thankfully very slowly.
Test positivity rose to 7. 6 percent, a point last noted in November 2021, and that summer, before the Delta variant swept the country.
“This is the fourth summer now that we notice that a wave started around July, starting in the south,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Almost all Americans have developed layers of immunity as a result of repeated infections, immunizations, or both, so the virus is unlikely to cause the damage this winter that has been noticed in past seasons.
However, for the elderly, pregnant women, and others with weakened immune systems or certain chronic diseases, the virus can still pose a serious threat.
The number of deaths is the lowest since the pandemic began, and about one-tenth of January levels. Most virus deaths now occur in adults over the age of 75. After the fall and winter breath bombardment, Mavens said.
“We’re in a very different place, but covid is still a thing,” said Katelyn Jetelina, an expert in public fitness and the widely read newsletter, “Your Local Epidemiologist. “
“I think we’re doing a disservice to the public by saying it’s over and moving on, because it’s going to be disruptive this winter and it’s going to kill several people. “”It’s just not appropriate for the public fitness world, especially since it’s preventable. “
The researchers sought to assess how updated Covid vaccines and emerging variants can replace the course of the pandemic. According to the most pessimistic estimates, if a vaccine were not available and the circulating variant evaded maximum immune defenses, Covid could lead to about 839,000 hospitalizations and about 87,000 deaths nationally between September and April.
At best, with others of all ages opting for an updated vaccine and a vaccine-sensitive variant, covid could cause 484,000 hospitalizations and 45,000 deaths, about the toll of a bad flu season.
“Based on those projections, covid will most likely remain among the leading causes of death in the United States for the foreseeable future,” said Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health who coordinated the study effort.
The diversity of estimated deaths would place Covid somewhere between liver disease and diabetes by causes of death. Dr. Lessler said.
Experts are particularly involved in the confluence of Covid with the breathing of syncytial virus, influenza and other pathogens. Many hospitals have collapsed under the weight of the so-called triple-demic of Covid, flu and R. S. V. Last year, the waves of the 3 infections seemed slightly out of date.
RSV peaked in November and caused about twice as many hospitalizations, adding among children, as in the years before the pandemic. The flu peaked in December and would have possibly caused as many as 58,000 deaths.
Covid caused around 50,000 deaths between November and March. It’s unclear whether the viruses will behave the same this winter or have a new seasonal pattern.
“This fall is something that epidemiologists are watching with wonderful curiosity,” said Dr. Brown. Jetelina. ” I think many of us are cautiously confident that we’re starting to have a new general breathing season. “
Although the peaks of the viral wave are further away than last year, the fitness formula can have problems.
“Even before covid, it was very complicated for fitness formulas to keep up with the influx of patients,” Dr. Rivers said. “If that’s indeed what we can expect year after year, I think we’re going to have to adjust the fitness formula to cope with this increased burden. “
The coronavirus remains a more formidable risk than the two respiratory infections, Dr. Rivers said.
Unlike flu and RSV, which tend to disappear in warmer months, coronavirus infections begin to rise in July and remain high through February. “It’s a smart component of the year where you want to be alert,” Dr. Rivers added.
A surprising update of recent years is that of a single dominant variant of the coronavirus, now there seems to be an organization of viral types, all derived from the Omicron branch. The virus is now mutating at a more steady rate, similar to the rate at which the flu virus is evolving, Dr. Lessler said.
The vaccine expected this fall is designed to target a variant called XBB. 1. 5, which ruled this spring. Even if the vaccine is not perfectly adapted to the variants that will circulate in the coming months, it will most likely prevent serious illness and death. and even infections.
Dr. Lessler and his colleagues estimated that vaccinating Americans of all ages can cause hospitalizations and deaths by about 20 percent.
No researcher predicts a return to the worst days of the pandemic. But some claim that when the number of cases rises, other people wear masks in crowded indoor spaces, test when they show symptoms and are alert to those around them. They may be at the greatest threat if infected.
“Whether we’re absolutely out of the pandemic and settled into our seasonal routine, I’m going to write yes,” Dr. Rivers said. “But I am also in a position to be surprised, because this virus has a The position surprised me. “
Apoorva Mandavilli is a journalist specializing in science and global health. He was part of the team that won the 2021 Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for its pandemic policy. More information about Apoorva Mandavilli
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