Lazar Berman is the diplomatic reporter for The Times of Israel
With Benjamin Netanyahu forcibly returning to the head of a coalition that Itamar Ben Gvir on his far-right flank, some of Israel’s closest allies were worried when the effects of Israel’s November 1 elections materialized.
“We hope that all Israeli government officials will continue to value the values of an open and democratic society, adding tolerance and respect to everyone in civil society, especially minority groups,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Wednesday in a thinly veiled complaint from some leaders of the pro-Netanyahu bloc.
The British issued a warning. ” We call on all Israeli parties to express themselves in chorus with inflammatory language and show tolerance and respect towards minority groups,” a spokeswoman for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.
An Axios report released Wednesday said Biden’s management will likely boycott Ben Gvir, a member of the far-right faction of devout Zionism who won 14 seats, if he is appointed to a ministerial post as scheduled.
Ben Gvir describes himself as a disciple of extremist rabbi and former MP Meir Kahane, whose Kach party was banned and declared a terrorist organization in the 1980s in Israel and the United States. Like Kahane, Ben Gvir has been condemned in the afterlife. For supporting a terrorist organization, he insists he has become more moderate in recent years and does not have the same ideals as Kach’s founder.
With symptoms of nervousness coming from even Israel’s most trusted Western allies, can the Jewish state face years of diplomatic tensions with European and Middle Eastern countries that are more critical of the Jewish state?Or do Israel’s partners have more urgent disruptions than internal composition?of the country’s ruling coalition?
Any discussion of Israel’s long-term diplomacy comes with a detail of speculation. However, no one knows for sure what the composition of the next government will be: Netanyahu can still combine tactics with members of Benny Gantz’s National Unity component or even with the component itself, and what role Ben Gvir will play in it. that he had indicated before the election that a position in the closet was likely.
But even without Ben Gvir, Netanyahu’s return may influence relations with key countries.
With Netanyahu at the helm for 12 years, Israel has made significant progress on the foreign stage, in the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, India and, of course, the countries of the Abraham Accords.
At the same time, some of Israel’s most important associations noticeably cooled the Netanyahu years. In some cases, it gave the impression that the prime minister himself was a factor in the development of tensions between the two sides.
Jordan a specific problem. Personal hostility between Netanyahu and King Abdullah has led to diplomatic crises. Abdullah said in 2019 that relations between Israel and Jordan were “at an all-time low” after a series of incidents that led Amman to recall its ambassador to Israel.
In March 2021, Jordan delayed the scheduled approval of Netanyahu’s flight route over the country to the UAE for a scheduled visit, resulting in the cancellation of the trip.
But even after a steady improvement under the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid government, relations have deteriorated in the wake of Ramadan tensions in Jerusalem. The capital.
And Jordan has visibly stayed away from the Negev Forum, in which Egypt, before Israel’s Abraham Accords, is fully participating.
Even if the winds blowing across Israel’s eastern border are noticeably colder, Amman is not going to jeopardize the deep security cooperation that is very important to both countries.
Jordan can publicly show the bloodless shoulder to Israel without worrying about Jerusalem’s reaction, said Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. relations with the country that has the longest border with Israel. “
Israel’s courtship with Jordan is an important national security issue, but it does not compare to important ties with the United States, and Netanyahu’s victory portends serious disorder for Washington.
White House Democrats somewhat concealed their distaste for Netanyahu, who publicly attacked the Iran deal in Congress during the Barack Obama years, and who moved closer to Donald Trump in the administration that followed. Now they will have to find a way to work with him.
“The Biden management and the Obama retreads who manage their national security have a visceral hatred for Bibi Netanyahu that will hinder cooperation,” said Danielle Pletka, a senior fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
“Obviously, it’s not popular, it doesn’t have any secrets,” said Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “There’s a long list of baggage, and it’s worth remembering that the Biden administration has a lot of other people who were a component of the Obama administration where relations were bad. “
While the White House tried to keep ties in balance while Bennett and Lapid were in charge, the White House will now be “much less cautious about tilting the boat,” Sachs said.
Many posts in Europe also had little patience with Netanyahu, who fostered relations with bigoted strongmen like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and designed a coalition of Central European allies that created a wedge within the European Union.
Among those congratulating Netanyahu on Thursday were Orban, Trump-era Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Italy’s new far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni.
– Giorgia Meloni (@GiorgiaMeloni) November 3, 2022
“They probably wouldn’t look to fight,” Sachs said of the Americans. “They already have enough disorder elsewhere. “
With regard to Russia and Ukraine, Netanyahu is unlikely to reposition course by supplying weapons to Ukraine. He has avoided significant complaints about Bennett and Lapid’s stance on the war, and at times even praised their caution.
Netanyahu had a close relationship with Putin, and many will expect a congratulatory phone call from Moscow once Netanyahu takes office.
Many leaders, especially Europeans and Americans, like to communicate about the importance of values on the global stage, but ultimately, national interests are dating between states.
Under Netanyahu, Bennett and Lapid, Israel has made it transparent for its allies to strengthen ties with Jerusalem and their security, give them access to cutting-edge technologies and offer answers to disorders central to the well-being of their citizens.
Turkey’s recovery from full diplomatic relations has been motivated by Ankara’s understanding that its economic, diplomatic and security interests are served through reconciliation with Israel and other regional rivals. it is in place or Netanyahu, despite a history of private animosity toward the Likud leader.
“We hope to maintain our relations with Israel sustainably on the basis of mutual respect for shared sensitivities and interests, regardless of the final election results,” Erdogan’s workplace tweeted Wednesday. “As long as values are respected, I think everyone wins. ” International relations will gain advantages not only from Turkey and Israel, but also from the entire region. “
The comment marked an unexpected update given the accusations beyond the Turkish president against Netanyahu of being a terrorist and a genocidal. But even for those who don’t get along with him, Netanyahu is a world leader known and treated for years.
“Netanyahu is new,” Inbar said. Ben Gvir is the novelty.
Many of Israel’s allies will be keeping an eye on Ben Gvir’s role and whether recent symptoms that he will move in a more moderate direction are indications of how he will behave in power.
One domain in which it is very likely to cause tensions, especially if the police are assigned as minister of public protection, is the Temple Mount. Ben Gvir has pushed Israel to assert sovereignty over the holy site of the powder keg, adding by allowing Jewish prayer, however, any move there can dramatically increase tensions with Israel’s Arab partners, not just Jordan.
In the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, aid for the Abraham Accords has eroded since the accords were signed in 2020. Unrest in Jerusalem that could be related to the policies pursued by the coalition’s far-right would further undermine public aid.
However, countries are not willing to withdraw from the agreement. They signed the agreements knowing full well that they would have to go through occasional periods of tension, adding two recent rounds against Gaza’s terror groups. These are long-term pacts, on an assessment of national interests.
Sachs noted that Democrats would struggle to reconcile Ben Gvir’s presence with the concept that Israel and the United States value the percentage.
Pletka also sees Ben Gvir’s presence in government as significant in U. S. -Israel relations: “Americans who hate Israel and Likud say what they need to say, but they can’t.
But he argued that the foundations of bilateral meetings are in jeopardy: “Israel and the United States can continue with the defense, intelligence and economic cooperation that continues, no matter who governs Jerusalem.
Europe has similar interests in maintaining its close ties with Israel, said Asger Christensen, a Danish member of the European Parliament who traveled to Israel for elections with ELNET, an organization that works to strengthen Europe-Israel relations.
“This is Israel’s decision, and we will cooperate with its decision,” he said. “We will expand cooperation with Israel in Europe. “
“We expect our relations with Israel to be sustainable on the basis of mutual respect for shared sensitivities and interests, regardless of the final results of the elections. “
— Communications Directorate of the Republic of Turkey (@Communications) 2 November 2022
“They don’t care about Ben Gvir, they don’t care about anything,” Inbar said. “They need Israeli technology. Bibi is a world leader and Ben Gvir doesn’t bother them.
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