African democracy at stake as ‘indicator’ Nigeria goes to the polls

The presidential election comes as fuel and currency shortages wreak havoc in the continent’s most populous country.

Nigeria’s February 25 election has been described as progress for democracy in Africa, where army coups and attempts by longtime leaders to hang on to force have raised fears of a “democratic rollback” of progress. achieved since the end of the Cold War.

More than a dozen African countries will go to the polls in the next 12 months, but experts agree that the presidential and parliamentary vote in the continent’s most populous country is the most issued.

Nigeria “is an emblematic country,” said Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham and an expert on African politics. “If the elections are a success and they are considered democratic, it will be a great spice for democracy. “more in Africa. . . But the opposite is also true. “

Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development in Abuja, described the election as a reason for optimism and a test.

“On the one hand, it’s a sign of progress,” he said. “Nigeria now has about 24 years of uninterrupted democracy and the two-term limit [for presidents] is respected. . . But Nigeria has to get it right. “

Foreign Policy, the American magazine of global affairs, recently called the election the highest in the world in 2023, describing it as “a global event, even if the world knows a little bit. “

The vote comes at a critical time. In addition to coups in West Africa, wars have been damaged and extremism has spread. Across the continent, economies are struggling to triumph over the devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation caused in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and other challenges. . Investment has stagnated.

Nigeria is suffering from intersectional crises, adding to the economic turmoil, violence, extremism and crime that plague much of the country, from kidnappings for ransom in the northwest to a 13-year-old Islamist insurgency in the northeast, separatist violence in the southeast and decades of antiquity. ethnic tensions. basically between pastoralists and farmers in the Mid-North region.

Outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari’s two terms are seen as a deep disappointment, and even his wife apologized to Nigerians for not living up to expectations.

Last week, Nigeria’s currency fell further after a “surprising” downgrade of the country’s credit rating through Moody’s, the rating agency. The International Monetary Fund raised its projection of Nigeria’s rate of economic expansion in 2023, still to 3. 2%.

Observers note that Nigerians still look toward an elected government to solve the country’s challenges, and interest in a dynamic crusade has been intense. “It’s a very competitive and close election,” Cheeseman said.

Eighteen candidates are vying to update Buhari, and analysts say its diversity is evidence of the strength of Nigeria’s democracy.

The race pits Bola Tinubu of the Congress of All Progressives in power; Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party; and Labour’s Peter Obi, who is leading in some polls.

Tinubu, 70, and Atiku, 76, have force bases across Nigeria. Both are seen as classic politicians who will seek to mobilize the electorate with great organization and spending. Obi is seen as a reformist eager to reform the Nigerian political system.

The 61-year-old former businessman leads a rebel crusade that relies on social media, word of mouth and the power of his largely young followers. More than 80% of the 10 million new voters who registered for the upcoming elections are under the age of 34.

“Obi emerged as a third force that shook up the political scene governed through two established parties. . . although, realistically, their chances are slim,” said Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at Vethreat Maplecroft, a global threat intelligence firm. The democratic progress achieved since the end of the 3 decades of army rule [in 1999] shows that, despite all the problems, the direction of the government remains positive. “

Observers note that none of the top applicants are former army officers, a novelty for an election in Nigeria.

One thing is the new generation that identifies the electorate through fingerprints and facial recognition. Officials hope this will make the manipulation that has traditionally contaminated Nigeria’s ballot box much more difficult.

“This is an election in which all the major flaws are reflected, there is renewed confidence in the electoral process,” Hassan said.

A nonviolent force transition could face a wave of instability in West Africa, where Mali and Burkina Faso have seen elected governments replaced by military regimes over the past three years.

It can also send a message to other leaders and ruling parties who are clinging to force on the continent. Teodoro Obiang has been in Equatorial Guinea since 1979, Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982 and Yoweri Museveni has controlled Uganda with an iron fist since 1986.

Elsewhere, it is the parties that once defeated colonialism that are still in charge. The MPLA has ruled Angola for decades, while Zanu-PF has controlled Zimbabwe since 1981.

“It’s a barometer for Africa [that] can just mark other leaders’ cards and tell the dinosaurs ‘your time is up,'” Cheeseman said.

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