In 2000, the World Bank Group (WBG) published Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? which described African development challenges and proposed wide-ranging reforms to transition from poverty to prosperity within the 21st century. The report highlighted four areas of priority:
Since the report was published, Africa has made progress in many areas, but has stagnated or deteriorated in others. The demanding situations of global progress are concentrated in Africa. After a quarter of a century, the next report, Africa in the 21st Century: Governance and Inclusive Ecology, will be published. Growth, reviews the priorities of the World Bank Group’s 2000 report, analyzes how they have evolved over the past 25 years and how they have been affected by emerging and unforeseen trends. The monitoring report evaluates the progress made. Since 2000, it reconsiders Africa’s political commitments to progress and analyzes the demanding situations and possible opportunities for the continent to take advantage of these megatrends.
Emerging and unforeseen events, 2000-2024
In 2000, the report could not have foreseen the global megatrends that emerged– the digital revolution, economic relations with China and other non-traditional partners, a pan-Africa free trade area, and climate change. These trends bring uncertainty and complexity, but also present great opportunities. With the right reforms, adopted on an urgent basis, Africa has a chance to claim the 21st century: rapid, sustainable growth accompanied by more and better jobs, and improved living standards.
Climate change: Africa accounts for between 2% and 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions from electricity and commercial sources, yet countries in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately affected by climate change. Warming over the past 50 years and the rise in global average temperatures by 1°C above the 20th century average have put pressure on African economies and communities (Figure 1). Out of a pattern of 30 African countries, two-thirds are warming faster than the global total – a trend this is expected to continue in the coming decades. From the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, the southern component of the continent and small island states, all are suffering the devastating effects of excessive weather and slow change. On a positive note, it is estimated that climate action could create another 65 million jobs by 2030 in Africa as new markets develop, namely in renewable energy.
Figure 1. Effect of a 1C Increase on Real per Capital Output
External partnerships: China and other emerging economies are transforming the relationship between African countries and their former Western partners, moving them away from the classic postcolonial donor-recipient relationship characterized by foreign aid and unbalanced dependence. They have visual economic partners for Africa, specifically in the spaces of trade, herbal resource extraction and FDI. In 2000, China and India were Africa’s eighth and ninth trading partners, while they now occupy the first and second positions (Figure 2). Chinese loans to Africa increased from $121 million to $30. 4 billion between 2000 and 2016. Loans are increasingly allocated to infrastructure and production, unlike OECD/DAC partners, which are basically concentrated in the sectors social (Figure 3).
Figure 2 Annual volume of the industry with Africa
Digital revolution: The virtual revolution is disrupting African economies in positive ways: government operations and personal facilities are employing new virtual generation solutions; Agribusiness, market information, energy, fitness, and education have adapted technologies to existing purposes and supplemented them with enhanced virtual capabilities. Mobile generation is enabling African countries to outperform generation in industries. The breadth of cell policy (Figure 4) has revolutionized monetary policy. Inclusion: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of registered mobile cash accounts of any region, and 160 million unbanked adults own a mobile phone.
Figure 4 Registered Mobile Money Account
Continental integration: So far, Africa is one of the least incorporated regions. Intra-African exports accounted for less than 20% of the total industry in 2019, compared to 60% and 70% for intra-Asian and intra-European industries, respectively. In July 2019, 54 African countries agreed to the pan-continental loose industry area. It could simply unite economies comprising 1. 3 billion people, create a $3. 4 trillion economic bloc and breathe life into Africa’s domestic and foreign industry. The industrial agreement will begin by reducing the price lists of products within the bloc and will then expand to other areas.
The Sequel Report
It is timely, given the ambitious global and regional frameworks which will shape development priorities for African countries: The Sustainable Development Goals by 2030; the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the African Union’s Agenda 2063, and the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (Fakta), that the sequel report, Africa in the 21st Century: Governance and Inclusive Green Growth identifies solutions for closing the remaining development gaps.
By addressing old and new challenges, the overarching purposes of expansion, inclusion, and sustainability remain. First, expansion: no other purpose can be achieved if the economy does not generate the resources necessary to achieve them. The focus will have to be on expanding productivity in all sectors of the economy. But the transformation of the global economic and technological situation means that Africa cannot simply follow a recipe for expansion that has worked in other parts of the world. The region wishes to chart its own path to faster expansion.
Secondly, inclusion. Increased wealth only brings progress if it is widely shared. Profits will have to be invested to allow everyone to participate and gain advantages from a developing economy. Africa’s demographics will make this task more difficult.
Thirdly, sustainability. Neither expansion nor inclusion will last if there is continued degradation of herd systems, adding land, water, forests, and the ecological facilities on which life depends. Since the Industrial Revolution, economic progress has been accompanied by widespread environmental disruptions such as pollution, deforestation, and land degradation. Only once greater wealth is achieved will most countries be able to make greater efforts to clean up their environment. Africa will need to seek to do more and address these immediate risks to the health and critical functions of ecosystems, even as it continues to face significant economic and social gaps. What makes the task more complicated is that it will have to be done while dealing with the effects of a changing climate that is exacerbating many existing environmental disorders and posing a new and direct risk to lives and communities. means of subsistence.
Achieving these basic goals of progression requires an essential ingredient: smart governance. Competent and responsible governments will have to meet a number of essential objectives that create the conditions in which economies grow, others prosper and the environment recovers. You will have to set and enforce the rules of the game. It will have to balance competing and contradictory interests. You’ll have to secure the source of intelligence that the market alone can’t provide. And it must guarantee a fair distribution of the completion of the work. A government can fulfill its role by collaborating with the market and its civil society.
African leaders will have to find an exclusive path to inclusive green growth. Today’s decision-makers will shape not only the quality of life for today’s residents, but also that of the other two billion people likely to be added to the continent for the rest of this century. Africa in the 21st Century: Governance and Inclusive Green Growth explores progression priorities, ranging from growth-related facets such as investment, diversification, digitalization and trade; human progression with an emphasis on skills; and the environment and climate resilience.
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