The United Nations fitness firm raises concerns about the evolution of more severe variants of SARS-CoV-2 globally.
The most recent figures from the WHO show that between June 24 and July 21, 2024, new hospitalizations increased by 11% and ICU admissions by 3% compared to last month.
“Data from our sentinel surveillance formula in 84 countries indicate that the percentage of testing for SARS-CoV-2 has increased over several weeks,” said Dr. Kelly. Maria Van Kerkhove of the WHO.
COVID deaths have also risen 26% in recent weeks. However, the WHO urges caution when interpreting reported knowledge as COVID and sequencing has declined and many countries are reporting effects late.
The overall positivity for SARS-CoV-2 is over 10%. However, Dr. Van Kerkhove warned that in Europe this percentage exceeds 20%.
Ziyad Al-Aly, a COVID physician-scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, US, said we take emergent hospitalizations seriously because “it’s always wise to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. “
“The surge in the United States was preceded by a wave of COVID in Singapore. Unfortunately, many countries do not comply with or talk about these measures. So we’re flying blind,” Al-Aly told DW in an email.
The good news is that COVID-19 hospitalizations are still well below last winter’s levels. The severity of infections also appears to be lower than at the beginning of the pandemic, according to Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Eastern University. Anglia in the United Kingdom.
However, Hunter stressed that those patterns of COVID surges are now a component of general life given that “SARS-CoV-2 will most likely be with us for generations. Emerging and decreasing figures will be part of our long term, since less for our lives,” he said.
The recent slight increase in COVID cases appears to be due to several new subvariants called FLiRTs.
They are descendants of the now dominant JN. 1 variant, which itself is a descendant of omicron but with some additional mutations. Members of the FLiRT organization come with KP. 2, KP. 3 and JN. 1. 7. 1.
“The FLiRT variants are named after their mutations: furin-like cleavage site, L452R and T478K. It’s silly, I know, but the call stuck,” Hunter said.
While knowledge is limited, Hunter said that “so far there is no evidence that those variants are more destructive than past variants and possibly even less so. “
Al-Aly is more cautious, saying it’s too early to say whether the new FLiRT variants are more or less destructive than previous variants.
“We are still learning more about the new variants KP. 1, KP. 2, KP. 3, LB. 1; There is evidence that some of them are more transmissible and may possibly be more evasive to the immune system. This “possibly gives credit to the expansion and increase in hospitalizations in some regions, but more knowledge is needed before we have more definitive answers,” he said.
So far, everything points to a decrease in the population’s immunity to COVID.
“Sterilizing immunity after an infection or vaccination lasts on average only 4 to six months, so the immunity gained from winter infections or the fall vaccination crusade will have already been largely lost,” Hunter said.
Most people’s immunity to COVID comes from a combination of infections and vaccines. This so-called hybrid immunity provides greater coverage against infection and severe disease than either alone.
Hunter suspects that most of the existing reports of COVID-related hospitalizations in the UK are of older or vulnerable people, as the only testing and reporting that is done comes from the healthcare of others.
Hunter is under pressure for older adults and those at higher risk of severe COVID infections to take extra precautions to avoid infections.
“So if you’re 75 years old and you earned your fall booster last year, you’ve avoided infection over the winter, and you missed your spring booster, you still have very little sterilizing immunity,” he said.
“People ask me all the time: Can you still have long COVID with the new variants and the answer is maximum, probably yes,” Al-Aly said.
Edited By: Martin Kuebler
This article was first published on July 5, 2024. It was updated on August 15, 2024 to reflect new knowledge about COVID deaths, positive tests, and hospital and ICU admissions.