Last week, I would have possibly read about the letter my virologist-Mars sent to me and my siblings about the coronavirus.
This week, I got worried about a small ache I felt in my throat and right lung. My brother and I heard from our friend Jan, who was worried about the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the Netherlands. My sister, a vet, read about a virus that cats could get several times. And we all got more stressed as the number of new COVID-19 cases kept rising everywhere.
Here are the answers we got back.
Dear Nele, Johan and Nele,
I know everyone is very worried now, even more than last week. Since the last time we talked, the number of new instances and deaths has higher exponentially, either in Belgium, Switzerland, the United States or in any of our neighbors countries I also worry about that, and I force myself to look at the statistics of the world One or twice a day (and when it gets too bad, I have a glass of wine at night to get rid of my mind).
We’re only going to see the numbers go down some two weeks after strict social distancing and “lockdown” measures are put into place. The virus has an average incubation period of 7.5 days, and it can even take up to three weeks to appear, so the upward evolution right now is still completely logical. Besides, even those who did go into lockdown can in the first instance still infect others in their household, and if that happens, we could see cases increase for an extra week or so.
The intelligent news is that we hope that the curve that begins to flatten at the end of next week, at least in the positions where blocking measures have already been taken a week or more, where they adhere or apply, and where they were sufficiently strict to significantly reduce interactions. And do not forget that we play a role in wearing these conditions: we will have to satisfy our civic duty and follow the government instructions.
As for yourself, Peter, you called me this week to ask for a slight sensation of the injured throat, and perhaps a sensation in your right lung. The solos are not typical symptoms of COVID-19. The non -unusual maximum is to have a fever, have cough (dry) and be breathless. If you have none of those three, it would be unlikely to have the virus, and in fact you do not see a doctor or pass to the hospital. They will have to worry about much more acute and serious patients.
However, if you need to be a bit more proactive, you may begin some daily physical conditioning habits. Go to a daily race (or if you can’t, an inner exercise), and keep a pinch of the ease with which you can make the same effort every day. If you have no challenge to do so, you are probably at least a few days (severely) sick. And if you breathe at some point at a given time, pay attention and see how it evolves. In addition, check your temperature once or twice a day. You will know early if there is an increase.
You also told me of your friend Jan, who lives in the Netherlands and owns a shop there, and was worried about the diverging approach of health officials there. And indeed, in the UK and the Netherlands, it seems the government initially wanted to go for a “herd immunity” approach (they have since altered course). That means they left large parts of social life uninterrupted for much longer, e.g. schools remained open longer than elsewhere, and pubs and restaurants remained open longer than elsewhere in Europe.
The idea of a “herd immunity” strategy, and letting social life continue, is that more people get the virus, therefore create antibodies against it, and become (at least temporarily) immune to it. That way, when they come in touch with the virus again, they won’t transmit it anymore, as the virus can’t infect them anymore. The ultimate result is that the infection curve naturally bends, as less and less people transmit the virus, and the R0, the number of infections per new person getting the virus, at some point falls below 1, leading to a natural end of the virus.
From a research point of view, having two sets of countries, one looking for a technique for herd immunity, and another that is going to block, is an attractive experience.
The fact is, we don’t know when the curve would “naturally” bend with a herd immunity strategy. And in the process, we can overwhelm the fitness system, causing far more death than would be the case if everyone who had been inflamed were treated. I perceive that January is better, as it did, to finish your tent and stay inside, like us in Belgium.
Another attractive thing that my colleagues and I have tried this week are new articles on the surface infection of Coronavirus and Covvi-19 in particular. We do not know exactly how the virus spreads if not through Touch Human It is stirred. Your hands. It will also have to be non -human transmission; Otherwise, the exponential gap cannot.
An article in which I sought showed that the S virus for many hours or a few days (if higher concentrations were used) on surfaces, such as plastic, paper and metal, but does not live forever: a virus will have to infect cells live and multiply. This is relevant, because the products you buy in the supermarket, or the door takes care of your building, are made of those materials.
So here’s my advice. When you are outside your house, and you can’t avoid touching objects possibly touched by others, keep your hands below your shoulders. That way, you won’t accidentally spread the virus to your face, and then into your mouth, eyes or nose. And when you get home, or leave your home, wash your hands with water and soap. Put the things you bought away for a few days if you do not need them immediately, or else, remove the plastic or paper packaging and wash your hands. In fact, alcohol (ethanol at 70%) or sodium hypochlorite even at 0.1% completely kill the virus in a minute, but can’t be applied on everything. Thorough cleaning with soap and water is effective too in removing the virus, so you should be safe if you strictly follow that practice.
Finally, we can ask the consultation if inflamed and taking a step forward, other people can become inflamed again. At least in the Chinese epidemic that has not been reported so far. This is pretty smart news and may imply that Americans and populations may gradually become immune to the immune system.
Viruses are all time, and if this happens, past immunity can be compromised. This is what we see with the influenza virus and that is why you want a “flu vaccine” (vaccine) every year. But, obviously, we still don’t have so much vaccine for cooking. A first trial with a candidate began in the United States only a few days ago. I hope, but it will take time.
So, from the point of view of public health, the safer strategy at this time is to verify to finish this epidemic, not play in an immunity strategy in which a giant number of other people are infected. We will know more in a few months in all the clinical questions we still have, such as the amount of other people who are naturally safe, how many other people had it without symptoms, etc. This will shape the long -term reaction and the reaction in other countries.
However, for motherhood, we will have to comply with the recommendation of the fitness pass and attendance prevents the spread of the virus. Your mom and I found this to be difficult, but we’re getting convenience in the fact that we can pass out to walk our bikes. Nele, I know the grandchildren need to see us, and you told us that they were arguing that they weren’t in bad physical shape, so they weren’t passing by to infect us. But as I explained, it’s not as undeniable as being in bad shape or not, that we can see ourselves. Children can bring the virus, without symptoms, and yet transmit it. You perceive that. So now do everything we can. We will live between hope and worry for a few more weeks, however, ultimately, we will get through it.
Dad.
Hop