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“Russian and Belarusian forces are unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north despite the October 10 announcement through Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Regional Union State Forces Rally (RGF),” ISW experts predict.
Read also: Russia tries to drag Belarus into an open war with Ukraine, to the Ukrainian intelligence services
Analysts note that the Russian component of any RGF formation in Belarus will likely consist of mobilized or enlisted troops of low readiness, which will pose a significant risk to Ukraine’s traditional military.
ISW writes that the Russian component of the RGF is composed of elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th Joint Arms Army and airborne units, some of which have already suffered heavy combat losses in Ukraine and operate with particularly reduced combat effectiveness.
At the same time, the Kremlin could try to use more Russian forces in Belarus to keep Ukrainian forces stranded near Kyiv and prevent their redeployment into the country.
The ISW also analyzed the large Russian missile attack on Ukrainian cities on October 10. According to the assessment, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin ordered the barrage of missile movements in reaction to the recent bombing of the Crimean bridge, to appease bellicose national nationalists. . , which “demanded such retaliation. “
Read also: Russian missile attack on Kyiv leaves at least 8 and 24 wounded
“Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (HUR) also reported that Putin planned this attack before the Crimean bridge explosion and, if true, could imply that Putin planned this attack as a deviation from Kharkiv-Izyum-Lyman’s failures,” the report said.
It is also noteworthy that in the great attack of October 10, Russia spent more of its declining source of precision munitions on civilian targets, rather than pieces of military importance.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian troops carried out movements opposed to the command and means of the Ukrainian army, communications infrastructure and energy systems in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian cruise missiles hit a playground, a park, the German consulate and a shopping mall, only in Kyiv. .
Also read: Russian missile attacks show the “style” of the new commander of the invasion forces in Ukraine
“Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grid are very likely to break Ukraine’s fighting will, but Russia’s use of its limited source of precision weapons in this way may deprive Putin of equipment to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson and Luhansk oblasts. ” Additional ISW.
The ISW extra concluded that Putin’s statements related to a proportional escalation in reaction to the alleged attack on the Crimean bridge recommend that he will continue to hit targets throughout Ukraine, but that he will not take more drastic measures, such as the use of nuclear weapons.
ISW also presents key findings:
Russian forces carried out and coordinated missile movements in more than 20 Ukrainian cities;
Most likely, Ukrainian forces liberated more than two hundred square kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast starting on October 10;
Russian forces continued their failed attempts to retake recently lost territory in northwestern Kherson Oblast while reinforcing nearby positions with broken and mobilized units.
Russian forces continued their ground attacks on Donetsk Oblast;
Russian Administrative And Professional Officials Prepare To Move Up To 40,000 Citizens From Kherson Oblast To Russian-Occupied Crimea And The Russian Federation;
Russian forces get the forces mobilized, most likely due to years of theft of sources through commanders and hired infantrymen.
Read the article about The New Voice of Ukraine