Over the past three summers, Austin has noticed a large increase in documented cases of COVID-19. That didn’t happen this summer. Here’s why, as well as a concept of where this disease is headed:
Central Texas counties and Texas peak counties are in the low stages of spread, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The steps are based on positivity rates, the number of other people hospitalized with COVID-19, and the number of hospital beds served by COVID-19 patients.
For example, of COVID-19 tests conducted through the Austin Regional Clinic, 10% to 12% are still positive. “If (the positivity rate) for the flu, it would be on the front page,” said Dr. Anas Daghestani, president and CEO of the Austin Regional Clinic.
However, the number of other people getting tested for COVID-19 has declined, Dagestani said. At one point, ARC clinics were conducting between 7,000 and 8,000 COVID-19 tests per week. They now do between 600 and 700 tests per week.
At local hospitals, there have recently been more cases of other people with flu-like symptoms testing positive for COVID-19, said Dr. Nicholas Steinour, director of the emergency branch at Ascension Seton Hospitals. Most patients aren’t serious enough to require hospitalization, he said.
Travel and meetings may fuel some of the new cases, he said. Steinour reminds others to be careful about testing for symptoms and staying home. He is not in favor of returning to wearing masks.
Compared to previous years, the emergency room has returned to a general summer, Dr. Brown said. Ann Buchanan, emergency physician at St. David’s. ” It’s abdominal pain, chest pain, stroke, a little bit of everything, but it’s not a big trend (of illness) like COVID-19,” he said.
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Dagestan believes there are reasons:
We don’t know what the true rate of COVID-19 is in the community. We have some indications through wastewater testing. Locally, the amount of COVID-19 in wastewater has declined, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s surveillance system.
Dagestan has recently noticed that more people with COVID-19 have inflamed eyes like a pink eye recently. The other symptoms are similar to past strains of COVID-19, but less severe. People who are older or have pre-existing conditions tend to have more severe symptoms, Dagestani said.
COVID-19 hospitalizations are now rare, he said, but lately another 12 people are in local hospitals.
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The 88% to 90% who test negative for COVID-19 have some other upper respiratory virus. Daghestani also reports streptococci. Buchanan saw some influenza B last month, and on the pediatric side, there are more young people breathing from the syncytial virus, which was once a winter virus.
In June, the CRA saw many other people with gastric or intestinal symptoms, but this subsided.
The new booster was launched in September. Daghestani recommends getting it. If you are immunocompromised, over 65, or live with an immunocompromised person, you get a momentary dose of the new booster six months after the first.
The FDA approved on June 15 that brands offer a fall booster that will be based on the omicron strain. The date of availability of the vaccines is not yet known.
All eyes are on the beginning of the school year. “I expect to see a resurgence of the disease in September and October,” Dagestani said.