Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck arrived in New Delhi on Sunday (Nov. 5) to receive a welcome mat and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar met him at the airport.
The stopover comes at a time when Bhutan is embroiled in border negotiations with China and the developments have caused some unease in New Delhi.
Last month, Bhutan and China held the 25th circular of bilateral border talks in Beijing. Tandi Dorji, Bhutan’s foreign minister who was in Beijing for the talks, made two statements that surprised India: Bhutan sincerely seeks an early settlement on the border dispute and builds diplomatic relations. relations with China as soon as possible. Many experts point out that India took it by surprise.
Prior to Dorji’s stopover in Beijing (the first through a Bhutanese foreign minister), attempts through the two countries to resolve the disputed border had proved futile. In addition, this 25th negotiating circular was held after a seven-year interval. here after the Doklam standoff in the summer of 2017, when Indian and Chinese troops became entangled in the remote but delicate Himalayan region where Bhutan, India (Sikkim) and China (the Tibet Autonomous Region) meet at a tri-junction. Apparently, it was the severity of the border conflict that led to the suspension of negotiations between Thimpu and Beijing. The talks were again “abandoned” due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s calculations
“Shocked” and “alarmed” is how top Chinese experts described Beijing’s reaction to the 73-day Doklam stalemate (Donglang crisis, as the Chinese call it). The Galwan standoff in 2020 was aimed at avenging the Donglang crisis, but also permanently boosting the Chinese in the delicate Himalayan region along the Line of Effective Control.
China blames New Delhi for the failure of its border negotiations with Bhutan.
It should be noted here that of the 14 neighboring countries with which China has a land border, only Bhutan and India remain with a questionable border. As a Chinese teacher recently stated, “Not only is India preventing any progress towards resolving border issues, but New Delhi is also blocking diplomatic relations between Bhutan and China” (in Chinese sohu. com, April 2023).
However, what now emerges is that the seven-year era was not entirely quiet, and Thimphu and Beijing maintained an active engagement in this era. In fact, a “three-step roadmap” (accepting the border “on the table”; then visiting the sites on the ground; and then officially demarcating the border) to move the negotiations forward was signed in 2021.
Bhutan’s achievements
Among the many diplomatic, economic and political achievements that Bhutan plans to push towards normalizing relations with China, the most important is to establish diplomatic relations with a P5 country.
The Himalayan kingdom is an exclusive member country of the UN and maintains diplomatic relations with only 54 nations, which are mostly small regional countries. It should be noted that Bhutan does not have diplomatic relations with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. .
In addition, in addition to diplomatic missions in New York (UN), Brussels (EU) and Geneva, Bhutan has embassies in India, Bangladesh, Belgium, Australia, Kuwait and Thailand.
Chinese analysts describe Bhutan’s foreign prestige as “self-isolation. “But now Bhutan is sending very transparent signals (to New Delhi) that it aspires to have a dynamic foreign policy.
India’s concerns
India’s most serious fear about the normalization of Bhutan’s relations with China is strategic. Currently, India’s most immediate fear is the prospect of Beijing forcing Thimphu to bow to Chinese pressure and cede access, if not control, to the Doklam Plateau. The speed with which China and Bhutan have achieved unexpected successes in their negotiations on border agreements.
In mid-January this year, the two countries held a new circular of border talks in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming, bordering the northeastern Indian state of Assam. A positive consensus had been reached between the two sides and that they would increase the frequency of their talks” (SCMP, January 2023).
The Indian Express newspaper reported on the considerations in New Delhi after the Kunming talks: “India will closely follow any steps taken to advance the China-Bhutan negotiations. It considers the Chinese presence near Doklam to be a primary security factor in the vicinity of the Siliguri strategic corridor,” the report said.
Chinese academics and analysts have begun to celebrate Beijing’s good fortune with Thimphu, calling it a “diplomatic breakthrough” in South Asia. In New Delhi it is no secret that China is making plans to gain a foothold in the Himalayan kingdom in order to eventually seize the merit to monopolize India.
Hemant Adlakha teaches Chinese at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is Vice President and Honorary Fellow of the Institute of China Studies (ICS) in Delhi.