AUSTIN, Texas – Almost without delay after president Donald Trump’s wonderful election in 2016, illegal immigration has declined, so for the first time in memory, government detention centers along the Texas border have remained nearly empty for months. a 70% drop in arrests was called the “Trump effect” because potential immigrants who had listened intently to Trump’s crusade rhetoric over the next border walls and the idea of immigration law enforcement, the most productive choice was to stay home.
But there is an equivalent and opposing Biden effect, an effect in which potential migrants south of the border have heard Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s crusade over illegal immigration and would be deeply encouraged to come in large numbers after Trump’s loss.
There are clever reasons to hope that Biden’s election will likely immediately cause a migrant caravan crisis, such as when nearly a million Central Americans effectively crossed the southern border in 2018-2019 before Trump managed to end it with transitional policies. The Trump effect has shown something, it’s because financially troubled foreign populations are largely tracking social media communications to find out when and how U. S. policy makes illegal immigration less difficult or more difficult, the chances of staying in the country more or less.
Messages heard from the world
During a January 2020 briefing on the Mexico-Guatemalan border, many Central American migrants to the United States told me they planned to stay in Mexico, rather than return home, with the bet that a Democrat would win the White House in less than a year and reopen the border lanes, which they would use temporarily. By this time, roadblocks in the Mexican army had been significantly reduced to the north while the government expelled migrants who did not seek Mexican asylum.
Many, like a Salvadoran woman with a child trapped in Tapachula, Mexico, said they would seek Mexican asylum but use it until “Trump is defeated and Democrats take over” because then “things will get better. “
Migrants from El Salvador and Honduras say they plan to stay in Mexico until the outcome of the U. S. election because, as one of them said, “I’ll wait because that would make things easier. “
Alma Delia Cruz, head of Mexico’s asylum workplace in the southern state of Chiapas, told me that she knew that most of the 70,000 Mexican asylum seekers who were processing their workplace at the time (compared to 76 last year) did not have the goal of staying long. Mexico.
“This is only his first chance of entering the United States, of course,” he told me. “I don’t know exactly what these other people think, but Trump’s threats can’t deter them from entering America. “
In recent months, the tide of Central American asylum in Mexico has continued to rise as U. S. elections approach. Thousands of Haitians, Africans, Cubans and migrants from the Middle East are also Mexican asylum, increasing tension awaiting release in the north over the option of a Biden presidency to make it possible.
Hope springs from America’s eternal political promises. But it’s not the first time
The message of Biden’s crusade, the number one Democratic season and after his nomination is that a Biden president would virtually ensure that migrants crossing the southwestern U. S. border can enter without significant obstruction and remain indefinitely with the option of permanent citizenship later, a difficult incentive. for mass migration.
Consider the crusade heard in the Americas for many months:
– A 100-day moratorium on deportations when Biden takes over the workplace – to exempt even the maximum number of foreign criminals, which will be followed by a permanent extension for all hardened foreign criminals to the fullest. “Don’t drink and drive a crime, ” he said.
– Use of executive powers to oppose all Trump immigration policies with the end of the border wall structure and Stay in Mexico’s return policy that requires asylum seekers to be sent to Mexico while their U. S. asylum applications are processed slowly. The Biden plan also promises an end to federal prosecutions for illegal access and the needs of migrants to seek asylum in the first country through which they transit to the U. S. border.
– Access to U. S. health care. Biden was one of the applicants who raised his hand in a number one debate when a moderator asked which of the applicants would help illegal immigrants have free access to the country’s physical care system.
– A “roadmap to citizenship” for illegal immigrants in the United States.
The top policy of the Trump era
In June 2019, Trump threatened Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador with ruined economic industry price lists on all exports to the United States if he did not prevent the large caravans that crossed his country’s southern border with Guatemala. Obrador served by deploying some 6,000 Mexican national troop guards at more than 50 roadblocks in Mexico’s border states, particularly cutting off migrants to the north.
The caravans fought opposite the wall of Mexican troops, who accumulated them to thousands and took them by bus to Central American countries, but the caravans continue to form. They sound and verify this maximum effective perimeter, feeling the slightest opportunity and weakness.
President Biden is highly unlikely to oppose Trump’s tariff risk to Mexico’s.
As a result, Mexico will almost feel free to keep troops there and relocate them as soon as imaginable after the November election. Overnight, Mexico would return to its classic role as a transit route for migrants to the U. S. border. It will also in fact have a way to check the address and locate it open.
The first waves of caravans, which is vital, would succeed on the U. S. border and find their way back unhindered. Successive waves of population, seeing that the avant-gardes triumphed unhindered, would do so through b as long as they did not object.
Predicting migration flows is not the type of bet on which to invest genuine money, as trends can be notoriously unpredictable and prone to unpredictable factors. The Trump effect dissipated once migrant communities realized that the crusade’s promises took a long time to implement, and then, when some of them were, it caused a border avalanche in 2018 that Trump had to counter in a way that no one could have done (such as the risk of Mexico’s industry tariffs).
Similarly, a Biden administration, seeing a first rush to the border and sticking to the Democratic victory, may not stick to its political concepts for some time, and ultimately if it makes the decision to stop mass migration, Trump will be forced to do so. do it is in place.
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