In the United States, scientists conducted a simulation study to estimate the number of deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that could have been prevented by expanding vaccination policy in the country.
The study is currently available on Research Square’s preprint server* and is published in the journal Scientific Reports.
The rollout of effective COVID-19 vaccines began in the United States in early 2021. Although there was a shortage of vaccines in the initial phase of the rollout, the country managed to develop its vaccination policy in mid-April 2021.
Studies in real-world settings have shown that COVID-19 vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing severe illness and hospitalizations and more than 90% effective at preventing deaths from COVID-19.
Vaccine hesitancy has been seen in a significant proportion of U. S. adults despite those benefits. An accurate estimate of vaccine-preventable COVID-19 deaths would help policymakers increase vaccination in the general population.
In the existing study, scientists simulated COVID-19 mortality and vaccination frequency in the state to estimate the number of COVID-19 deaths that could have been prevented by expanding the COVID-19 vaccination policy in the United States.
The simulation style was developed based on two assumptions. One speculation was that a state may peak indefinitely after reaching its maximum vaccination capacity. Also, for a given state, the style assumes that the vaccination rate peaks at up to 85%, 90%, or one hundred percent of the state’s population is vaccinated.
Another assumption that there would be no replacement in the number of effective replications of COVID-19 cases. The number of effective replications refers to the number of secondary instances of an index case in a given population of vulnerable and non-vulnerable individuals.
The style used to estimate the number of vaccine-preventable deaths at the national and state levels between January 2021 and April 2022.
Considering that one hundred percent of the U. S. adult population is living in the U. S. Although the U. S. was fully vaccinated during the study period, the report predicts that about 50 percent of COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented nationwide.
Considering an 85% vaccination policy rate, the style predicts that about 28% of actual COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented in the country.
The style knows the variation in the proportion of vaccine-preventable deaths between states: Massachusetts has 25% and Alaska 74% vaccine-preventable deaths.
The study shows that about 50% of COVID-19 deaths in the U. S. are due to the death toll. The U. S. could have been avoided by keeping the population’s vaccination rate at its maximum. In addition, the maximum efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines seen in the study would cause policymakers to ramp up vaccination. policy at the state and national level.
As the scientists said, the study includes age- and race-specific data. Therefore, the study could simply explore the effect of age and race on vaccine efficacy.
Written by
Dr. Sanchari Sinha Dutta is a science communicator who believes in spreading the power of science to all corners of the world. He holds a Bachelor of Science (B. Sc. ) and a Master of Science (M. Sc. ) in Human Biology. After completing his master’s degree, Sanchari continued his doctoral studies in human physiology. She is the author of more than 10 original articles, all published in world-renowned foreign journals.
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