The task of forecasting trends will need to be approached with some humility. On the one hand, there is the total unknowability of the future, which is not only a central fact of the human condition, but also one of the main reasons why it is so difficult to plan a vacation.
Let’s say the set goes to Portugal (as they did in 2023). Then the Tik-Tokers descend on him with all their needy and ignorant misconduct, and during the time you get there, the total vibe of the Belem Tower is destroyed.
Say you’re blocking a stopover in San Francisco because you hear it’s coming back, but suddenly glossy magazines send you packing in Detroit. The Middle East proclaimed an emerging destination on October 4 (it was done) and on October 7 all hell broke loose.
Travel is about fresh adventures and you want to know about the places, activities, and offerings ahead. So let’s ignore the rear-view mirror, stand on the hood, and take a peek over the horizon at 2024’s travel trends.
I spoke to nearly 20 other people whose livelihood depends on their ability to learn about users’ preferences, behaviors, and moods. I’ve interviewed industry analysts, consultants, tour operators, PR professionals, journalists, and other diverse people who seem to make a living for me (I need this job).
And I have some for next year.
So place your trays in a closed, upright position, stow your private items under the seat in front of you (say, the Travelpro Maxlite five is that popular in the 23?), and let’s make it to 2024 on time.
But keep your seat belt securely fastened, even after the captain has turned off the seat belt signal. We expect some turbulence.
In 2024, Venice, Italy, will become the first city in the world to implement a fee just to enter. The crowds during peak season swamp the city of canals, creating stifling throngs at St. Mark’s, long lines at restaurants, and grumpy gondoliers. The mayor of Venice says the new 5-euro charge is an attempt to “protect the city from mass tourism.”
Almost everyone I’ve spoken to has factored the effect of overtourism into their 2024 travel forecasts. The trend reached an inflection point in 2023, driven in part by a wave of post-pandemic “revenge trips. “The quest to make up for lost time before truly retiring also contributed.
After COVID, “people learned that life is short, and if I don’t do it now, when?” said David Swanson, an editor for more than 30 years.
Speaking of trends, social media influencers are also to blame for excessive visits. Tik Tokers create thousands of videos about iconic tourist spots. His hordes of fans soon do the same with the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, the Leaning Tower of Pisa, and the ruins of Machu Picchu.
In reaction to all this, some destinations are increasing fares or blocking access. In Vermont, the city closed a street after influential people, some of whom brought portable locker rooms, invaded one of the state’s most popular places to practice leaves. They trampled on plants and even defecated in the forest.
Three national parks (Glacier, Arches and Rocky Mountain) will introduce timed passes in 2024.
Vivek Neb, general director of tourism at consultancy Esnivel, says some destinations prone to overtourism approve fewer tourist visas. They also micromarket to the wealthy to keep their profits high as visitor numbers decline.
Meanwhile, Swanson is sceptical about the usefulness of the €5 payment imposed in Venice. Why is admission to one of the world’s greatest and most endangered architectural miracles cheaper than a bus ride?”Question. Swanson would increase the value up to a hundred euros for a one-week pass.
Luckily, every trend carries the seeds of its counter-trend.
And for the first time, American Express’s annual Trending Destinations report focuses not on the hot, hip, and happenin’ spots, but on places to go instead.
Are you thinking of Sapporo, Japan? Amex suggests Niseko, the least visited. Are you thinking of going to Sedona? No, go to Santa Fe.
Expedia is on-trend too, providing for 2024 travelers the following “dupe” sites (they borrow the “dupe” term from a popular Tik Tok hashtag): Taipei, Taiwan, instead of Seoul, South Korea; Paros, Greece, instead of Santorini; Perth, Australia, instead of Sydney.
Some experts in 2024 are already ahead of trend watchers. In Insurance. com, an online insurance broker, the company’s co-founder, Stan Sandberg, says he’s already seeing an increase in the out-of-the-ordinary by 2024, with bookings in 25 more countries than last year. Andorra, Palau and Grenada are recently popular.
Other detours cited through our sources:
The bad news is that in 2024 we shouldn’t expect any relief from the trend of airlines offering very low fares and then charging you for a seat or carrying a carry-on bag.
“People hate sitting in the middle seat,” says Robert Cole, senior hospitality and recreation analyst at Phocuswright, a research firm. “The airlines know they’re going to pay to avoid this, so they’re not going to stop the collection.
In fact, Cole believes the money-saving trend will spread to hotels, cruise ships and rental cars.
Peter Greenberg — travel editor for CBS News and host of the PBS show Travel Detective with Peter Greenberg — explains that the fees are a sly tax play by airlines; air fares are subject to the 7.5 percent federal excise tax, which increases costs for passengers. Fees are not taxed, allowing airlines to pocket most of them as profits.
Greenberg envisions relief for 2024 only in the form of “greater transparency” for additional tariffs, rather than a reduction.
The advantage of the surcharges is the increased availability of “comfort class” on most airlines: seats with more legroom and the ability to board earlier. “You might pay $19 or $54 more, but for a lot of people, it’s worth it. ” says Everett Potter.
More good news for 2024 is that you’re probably less likely to fall victim to the kind of cancellation nightmares thousands of travelers dealt with in 2022 and early 2023, says Katy Nastro, travel expert for airfare deals service Going.com.
Cancellation rates in 2023 were lower than in 2022, says Nastro, and the trend improves in 2024. “Airlines have made operational innovations and investments ‘that make cancellation events mass chaos’ less likely,” he said.
Airlines have an economic incentive to avoid that problem, says Greenberg.
“Southwest has created expectations by paying only for hotels and rental cars for stranded passengers, but also for food and things like puppy and child care,” he continued. “They and other airlines will feel pressured to do the same in the event of long-term mass cancellations. “events. “
As far as ticket costs are concerned, “costs have normalized” after the sharp fluctuations caused by low demand from the pandemic and massive demand afterward, says Nastro. Ticket costs are at 2006 degrees once adjusted for inflation and Nastro is hopeful that 2024.
Greenberg notes that in the fall of 2023, fares to Europe from U. S. gateways were as low as $300 as airlines moved their planes from domestic routes to domestic routes, expanding capacity.
The losers in 2024 are some American cities whose routes have been eliminated. “If you live in Toledo, you may have to go to Detroit to catch a plane,” Greenberg continues.
Many sources mentioned the impacts of global warming on travel; specifically the way it’s making some places unbearable in the summer.
In 2023, tourists in Rome experienced temperatures of up to 107 degrees Fahrenheit. In Greece, the government closed the Acropolis to protect other people from the sun. It was so hot in Europe that they called the heat wave Cerberus, which in Greek mythology is the many-headed Hellhound.
Travelers’ plans change.
“I used to struggle to convince consumers to go to Switzerland in the summer,” says Henley Vazquez of Fora Travel. “Now they come by and they love it. “
Several other sources suggest 2024 might be a good time to change your latitude.
Of the many emerging and perennial destinations discussed through others I’ve spoken to, possible options for avoiding the summer heat include: Copenhagen (average summer temperature of 68-71); Quebec (71-77); Dublin (65-68); Oslo (71-73); Portland, Maine (73-78); and Iceland (a bloodless 50-55).
Meanwhile, Orlando will shine in ’92, Bangkok will be on fire in ’93 and Phoenix in ‘104.
You can avoid both the heat and the crowds with a strategic approach to your itinerary, suggests Chantal Gouveia of Kensington Tours. “Change the where and the when,” she says. Choose a secondary destination to avoid the throngs and visit sometime other than the summer for relief from punishing temperatures.
You had to know this one was coming. Tourism around pickleball — the wildly popular sport that mixes ping-pong and tennis — is a thing for 2024.
Courts are multiplying at resorts, hotels, and cruise ships (including river cruises). Friendly classes and tournaments are for guests.
It may sound like an April Fool’s joke, but one hotel, the Tryall Club in Montego Bay, Jamaica, employs a pickleball concierge. Staff will provide paddles, balls, and sportswear, reserve a court or lesson, and coordinate with the chef to provide a post-game meal of pickleball.
Everett Potter was in Italy’s Lake Como region in October. “I couldn’t imagine how full it was,” he says. I didn’t get elbowed in the eye when someone took a selfie, but it was almost as bad. “
Mid-season deals — the months before and after peak season, long favored by cut-price hunters and travelers without school-age youth — have been “eradicated” in many destinations, he says.
Vazquez agrees that by 2024, off-season discounts are disappearing as occupancy rates rise in what used to be the off-peak months.
According to Hilton’s latest Travel Trends Report, food reporting is the most sensible priority for more than a portion of travelers. Of those travelers, 86% are looking for original local or regional cuisine.
The challenge is that it is not easy to locate an original cuisine made with local ingredients through a chef who knows the culture. Online reviews only get you so far.
The James Beard Foundation, which identifies the country’s most productive restaurants and chefs, makes it easy to find independent, local, chef-led institutions across the country. Its 2023 awards included restaurants in Kansas City, Missouri; Madison, Wisconsin; and Boise, Idaho. (Find nominees and winners in any city through the awards search feature on their website. )
“What’s happening in food in every little pocket of this country right now is very exciting,” says Kris Moon, president of the Beard Foundation. He cites the small Ozarks town of Bentonville, Arkansas, a rising tourism destination that has seen three recent Beard semi-finalists.
Many destinations create food “trails” to identify and savor local cuisine. And in 2024, there will be more food trails than ever. There’s the Salsa Trail in Arizona, the Chocolate Trail in Connecticut, and the A to Z Foodie. Trail in Iowa.
In 2024, be among the first travelers to hike the Ground Steak Trail in Surry, North Carolina.
For more than 20 years, airlines, destinations, hotels, and tour operators have been cleaning up their operations to reduce their impact on the environment. Booking. com and Expedia display icons that indicate a property’s sustainability performance. They offer insights into airline green space, but will they really influence travelers’ potential options in 2024?
“I see those notes that this flight would have lower emissions than this one,” says David Swanson. “I’ve never made a resolution about it. “
If eco-friendly travel feels a little old-fashioned and serious, it doesn’t have to be. One of Henley Vazquez’s favorites is 1 Hotel Group, which has what she calls “trendy, hip” hotels in places like South Beach and West Hollywood. They are also carried out to accommodate many of the strengths of the sustainability checklist.
Terika Haynes, discoverer of Dynamite Travel, a small luxury company, likes smaller homes like Rancho Santana in Nicaragua, which offers the same villas, spas and restaurants as always found in luxury homes. But the hotel serves food from its own organic farm, composts leftovers to feed the garden, and uses local artisans to make furniture and finishes.
Perhaps the biggest impact you can have this year, regardless of where you travel, comes from doing small things likely to lead to the best experiences anyway.
“By going to owned and operated restaurants, your cash directly supports families and small businesses,” says Kaitlyn Brajcich, Senior Director of Communications and Training at Sustainable Travel International.
“Options can be created that allow money to go directly to local communities,” he continues. But that’s no small feat. The United Nations Tourism Organization reports that in the Caribbean less than 20% of dollars remain in local economies.
The peak year for births in the middle of the century was 1957, which means that most baby boomers will be around 67 years old in 2024. It’s old enough for them to have children and their children to have children. Thus, the resources claim that multigenerational growth – where the total mix of extended and messy families – is booming.
Patty Monahan, founder of family travel agency Our Whole Village, says the trend of multigenerational travel she saw right after the pandemic is extending into 2024 bookings. The key to a great multi-gen trip, she says, is “balancing the multiple needs and interests” of groups that span grandparents through grandkids.
Villas, cruise ships, ranches or resorts where you have a “home base” and can access a diversity of activities look good, he says. Grandparents teach culinary elegance while grandchildren and parents go rafting, for example. “You don’t have to do it each and every one of you together, each and every day. “
This plays out across all value points.
The family “makes us reconsider what ‘luxury’ means,” says Marisa Ship of Kensington Tours, which creates customized trips for high-end people. For families, it’s “less about five-star accommodation and more about helping create memories than staying with them forever,” she says.
Kensington has a partnership with Ancestry. com, which deepens the probabilities of kinship across generations. Even before you decide on a destination, you can work with a genealogist to identify your ancestors and plan a stopover in the places that bring them together. It could include cemeteries, churches, family homes, or other heritage sites.
“If you want to go to the bar where your grandfather used to drink beer, we can do that,” Ship says.
Electric motorcycles, regular motorcycles with small electric motors that provide smooth assistance, will enter the mainstream in 2024. For example, they attract motorcyclists beyond the spandex and bulky shoe crowds that have been at the center of the market for years. These trips are especially popular with drivers over the age of 50 who are not properly “motorcyclists. “
“We electric motorcycles have attracted new active commuters who in the past were reluctant to engage in a motorcycle vacation,” says Bob Greeneisen, deputy chief operating officer of Backroads, a premium motorcycle travel company. Backroads began its transition to electric motorcycles in 2013 with 150 motorcycles and enters 2024 with a fleet of 4,500. Cycling company VBT says electric motorcycles now make up “a vast majority” of its fleet.
E-bikes are compatible with unexpected niches. On all of its luxury Rhine and Danube tours, Scenic Cruises offers standalone or guided e-bikes, allowing tours to castles, vineyards, and small towns that supply fresh air and require no van rides.
Expect e-options on your next city visit too, as urban bike providers rush to transition to e-bikes. In San Antonio, I recently spent a wonderful half-day touring the four Spanish missions located along a well-paved, 10-mile path riding an e-bike and I didn’t break a sweat.
We know you’re hoping to hear that high-speed rail will finally be coming to America in 2024.
Amtrak will introduce next-generation bullet trains along its DC-Boston Acela route. The new trains are exactly 10 miles per hour faster (up to 160 miles per hour) than the old ones. But its detached tracks prevent trains from achieving that. velocity.
Some adjustments that will come to the national railway in 2024:
As states and countries continue to legalize recreational cannabis, cannabis-related tourism will most likely grow in 2024. Travel Agent Central reports that 29% of travelers have an explicit interest in cannabis-related travel.
Typical features of marijuana-like tourism include “bud and breakfast” tours and “good food” spots. A hashish tourism agency, Cannabis Tours, can email you a “420-friendly hotel” (the number is something of a joke among smokers). whose provenance is uncertain) and similar activities, such as painting watercolors while on drugs.
The Washington Post has put together some tips for budding travelers. Visit only authorized dispensaries, bring cash, and inquire about the impact individual products can offer.
You may have heard about the spate of travel guidebooks generated by artificial intelligence (or A.I.). Some are hysterically bad.
A Washington, D. C. , guidebook, known through Washingtonian magazine, features a photograph of the construction of the Sacramento Capitol on the cover. It directs kayakers to Rock Creek Lake, which doesn’t exist. He recommends a trip to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial at the National Arboretum. located 3 miles from the current location of the monument on the National Mall.
This suggests that 2024 may be a smart year to get recommendations from trusted publishing brands (could we introduce TravelAwaits?Because AI didn’t write that story. )
But AI will most likely arrive very soon in the reports of some traveling customers, says Vivek Neb. By consuming vast amounts of knowledge about you and the world, AI-based teams will eventually become “like your friend who knows you and can tell you where. “you might say. ” I like it. “
Lydia Schrandt, president of the Society of American Travel Writers and a master of knowledge science, says she’d be “very surprised” if by the end of 2024, most online businesses didn’t do things like “automatically create custom itineraries. “through AI
“The more data they have about their preferences, the more they can customize an itinerary based on what they are likely to need to do,” he says.
Robert Cole of Phocuswright sees great potential for A.I. in customer service. For example, if your flight is delayed and you’re likely to miss a connection, you now have to call or stand in line. “But with A.I., airlines can be proactive,” he says. You might just get a text saying that you’ve been rebooked on a later connecting flight. Expect only incremental progress toward that in 2024, he says.