The global is becoming, and to stay on its feet, local wisdom is needed in a global context.
The global is becoming, and to stay on its feet, local wisdom is needed in a global context.
Clem Sunter is one of South Africa’s most reputable strategists and left an indelible mark on the birth of the new South Africa that followed its script of the wonderful trail of negotiated agreements rather than the low trail of political turmoil. In this in-depth interview with BizNews Editor-in-Chief Alec Hogg, Sunter, a prolific strategy book author who has had a successful career at Anglo American, examines the features that will be offered to governments as they begin to build the lockdowns intended to involve Covid-19. 19. Sunter also shares his assessment of the combined signals we are receiving from the knowledge and studies produced on the emergence and transmission of Covid-19 and its mortality rate. Like Stanford medicine professor Professor Jay Bhattacharya, who also has a Ph. D. In economics and has concluded that the Covid-19 figures guiding government policies need to be reworked, Sunter proposes a delicate balancing act between suppressing economies to save lives and redesigning economies. Open a business to protect others. -Jackie Cameron
The explanation is simple; that today governments are seen making genuine attempts to defeat the epidemic. I call the script a tightrope walker, because it is a very complicated exercise for them. They want to find a balance (on the one hand) between not sinking into a depression due to the closure of the global economy (which was already in a vulnerable state before its closure, due to the amount of debt) and the triggering of another outbreak of the coronavirus, which then raises the pandemic to a point close to what happened in the last century. with the Spanish flu. So it’s a tightrope walk and I call it the tightrope scenario. I think the markets are pretty positive right now. This can be done, but it will require trial and error, as we are going to see what you can open without completely restarting the virus.
When you evolved your initial scenarios, you were in a very, very different world: 100,000 infections and 3,000 deaths. There are now 2. 5 million infections with more than 150,000 deaths. So he continued at a steady pace. But on the other hand, science has become very noisy. Where do we seek to get the right type of messages from what all the scientists send us?
The answer is, Alec, you just don’t know. I scour all the sites on the internet, read the newspapers, and read specialized articles, but there is a lot of uncertainty about the true nature of this virus. It can start with the number of asymptomatic cases and the studies conducted in California, which supposedly show that the number of infected people may be 50 to 80 times higher than what is actually shown in the cases. But it’s a small sample, so you store it in your brain, even though you don’t know if it’s the right kind or not. People have been talking (especially those who have suffered from the virus) about the side effects of the virus and, again, that just doesn’t exist enough for us to judge the long-term and probably the most vital side effects: There’s been news that other people have flared up again and that would be huge if that was the case because, Of course, that means you’re not immune after an infection. Fortunately, we’re in an instantaneous data phase and it’s very, very complicated right now to know what to organize and what not to.
I have heard (several times) a scientist tell me that science doesn’t keep up with the news cycles; I guess it takes some getting used to. But the report for this study comes from Stanford University; It is written by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who has a good reputation there. He is a professor of medicine and an economist, so he wears (so to speak) either hat. Stanford (we know) is probably the most prominent university in the United States. He put his reputation on the line – not for the first time – by saying that the challenge with the knowledge we are seeking is that we are overestimating the mortality rate because the denominator is not correct. The denominator is only contracted through other people who already have symptoms, but when they did their research in the counties (they think they are representative), they find that many other people (up to 80 percent of people) who have symptoms are not affected . . Contracting this virus never shows any symptoms. So the denominator – if that denominator is used (according to him) – would mean that the mortality rate is the same as that of the seasonal flu. It is a difficult task given that everyone is shutting down economies everywhere.
Absolutely, Alec – and we’re going to have to wait to see what the answer is because when I wrote this original article the mortality rate was estimated at 2 to 3% and if it’s like the flu – at 0. 1% – that would make an incredible difference. And obviously the other thing is the actual infection rate and what that represents. Only in the next few weeks will we know if this technique is valid, but that does not replace the fact – and this is why I wrote the camel straw situation – that the global economy was already vulnerable due to the amount of debt. (especially public debt) and the truth is that the global economy has stopped and, as I said in the article, there have been scenes of empty shops from all over the world. And whether due to a correct or incorrect explanation, it has happened, and what will be very attractive is to see how the market (that is, market: production and services) can temporarily grow. How temporarily can everything be restarted from this incredible state of inactivity? And you only have to take a look at the statistics in the United States (such as housing construction and production) to realize that the numbers are terrible in March and that this will probably be the case. It will be even worse at the end of this month. So this act has already been done and it will be interesting to see if this triggers a very nasty recession/depression or if (in fact) everything will recover towards the end of the year. And right now, of course, the Dow, the FTSE and other indices over the last few weeks have shown signs of optimism and that is why they have come off the March lows and we are going to have to wait. and see if it can be done.
Yes, it’s a normal thing to see. U. S. stocks are up 15% in two weeks, reclaiming the top of the floor (tech stocks have indeed seen a surge since the explosion they experienced when Covid-19 began to take off). But if you look at South Africa and India – as two countries – that’s what I’m looking at to understand. We know that social distancing is very unlikely to be respected in India: people sleep on the streets at night in India, there are so many people around. However, its fitness formula hasn’t been flooded with Covid-19 infections. Also in South Africa – where in many spaces no social distancing policies or rules have been followed – because they simply can’t. And again, we don’t see hospitals in this country inundated with a lot of infections. I’m looking to solve this problem, Clem. Have we been sold any other 2000s?You were there about 20 years ago and you don’t forget what happened then. Do we panic (as some are saying now)?
I totally agree with you on your fear of the rate of infection or whether, in fact, many other people are inflamed but don’t have any symptoms, because surely you’re right: I’ve asked myself that question too. If India and Africa and, to some extent, South America hadn’t experienced those dramatic scenes that we’ve had in Europe, America, and even America (i. e. , New York), then, it would seem that this virus has a wonderful clustering feature. Where: If it’s a cruise ship, if it’s an overcrowded prison, if it’s a place where other people see each other all the time instead of passing each other on the street, then it’s actually taking off. But how is it possible – apart from the absence of evidence – that we don’t see the same kind of figures in Africa or India?We’ll have to wait and see.
But doesn’t that remind you a bit of the year 2000?
In fact, he was on the board of a company called M2K that had to fix all the local authority IT systems before the turn of the century. Memory; There was a gig in Kirstenbosch and I had a phone so that if everything fell apart someone could call me. And of course it didn’t ring because it didn’t happen. But I think there’s more validity to this than just being hyped up by the press, because we’ve noticed those incredible scenes in New York (and to some extent in England) of literally overcrowded hospitals and healthcare and you don’t see that. with a common flu. So, for me, that is a real difference: that you have seen the chaos in the intensive care units. And also, there has been a shortage of protective devices – and that never happens with the annual flu – so I think it is more genuine. Now, whether governments overreacted by shutting everything down, that’s another question, because (of course) many other people cite Sweden. But it didn’t stop it on its own; They told other people to socially distance and a few other things, but they continued as usual. And if we really look at their mortality and infection rates, they are not much higher than those of other Scandinavian countries and even other European countries in general. So this (I’m sure) is becoming debated: whether it may have followed the Swedish lead and hoped there would be a large number of undetectable cases and would eventually achieve herd immunity and not shut down its economy, or whether to pass on the direction that countries like Italy, Spain, France, England and the United States are taking, that is, closing the position. I’m sure this will be hotly debated once the pandemic is over.
But in our country we have a lockdown that ends at the end of the month. If you were advising the government, Clem, what would you say to them now about the lockdown?
In fact, I wouldn’t ask them to lift it before the end of the month. What I would do is say to the government: “What is the position going to take in the coming weeks – in terms of returning to something resembling normality?” What are we all determined to do? I see that they have published it in the US and the UK, the three stages that will take place after the lockdown to allow the economy to recover. We do exactly the same. In other words; You want to prepare businesses, small businesses, Americans, seniors (whatever) for what’s coming after the lockdown, because right now everyone is sitting at home and doesn’t know what they’re going to do when the day comes. for the confinement to be lifted. So I would recommend the government provide the same kind of data that other people get in the US and UK about exactly what kind of habit they expect from other communities; business and American communities (after lockdown) and get it done now so we can prepare.
I’m guessing we also have at least a few other countries that we can monitor that are a little bit ahead of us on the curve.
I don’t have a very clear idea of how Denmark is doing, nor how New Zealand will do next week; It is said that today Germany is in the news (which will authorize the opening of stores). I’m not sure we’ll have that many examples until the end of April. The only example is China and essentially China locked everyone down and then lifted the restrictions in a very organized way; However, that is because it is a one-party formula in China. I just feel that a democracy like ours will stick more to the example of the United States or Europe and we still don’t have a smart example of what happens after lockdown in terms of restaurants opening, pubs opening, what are the distancing regulations changing? social. . be: everything is still at stake. And so we want to start having this verbal exchange now. I return to one point: it cannot be ruled out that this is a very unpleasant virus and the last thing you want is for it to return in a second wave. Therefore, coming out of confinement is just a matter of walking the tightrope of opening up, but we must ensure not to fall into a second wave of the epidemic. This will be a delicate balancing act, and we want data on how to achieve this delicate balancing act and we don’t have it at this time. So I hope Cyril gets together with all the fitness professionals and other business people and writes a manual on how to continue after lockdown.
Hear Cyril Ramaphosa’s story to presidential power, told through our very own Alec Hogg.
© 2023 BizNews, Inc. | The Rational PerspectiveTerms & ConditionsComment Policy